What Happens When Mobile Spectrum Capacity is 100X Greater?

Spectrum scarcity long has been a key assumption of mobile or fixed wireless service provider business models. But scarcity is diminishing. This year, some 1550 MHz of new mobile spectrum has been released by the Federal Communications Commission. Another 3400 MHz is going to auctioned in 2019.

That will increase the amount of mobile licensed spectrum by 10 times on a physical basis, and perhaps as much as 100 times once all the other network innovations are added (spectrum aggregation, spectrum sharing, dynamic sharing, small cells, beam forming).

That comes in  addition to incremental allocations in low-band (600 MHz, 700 MHz) and mid-band (AWS), the Federal Communications Commission now is releasing huge amounts of new spectrum--both licensed and unlicensed--in the millimeter regions.

And the impact those allocations will have on mobile operator capacity are unprecedented. In part, that new capacity is required simply to support ever-growing mobile data consumption. But the almost-universal belief is that boosting capacity so much will create new use cases, apps, services and revenue sources.

Consider that the leading four U.S. mobile providers have operated with 100 MHz to 180 MHz of spectrum assets in the 4G era. But all the allocated mobile spectrum has totaled less than 1,000 MHz.

But the latest FCC auctions of 28-GHz (auction 101) spectrum represented an additional 850 MHz of new spectrum. The latest auction of 24-GHz (auction 102) spectrum added another 700 MHz of capacity.

The next auction (auction 103) of 37 GHz, 39 GHz and 47 GHz spectrum will release 3400 MHz of new spectrum, in addition to the 1550 MHz released in auctions 101 and 102.

If Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile US won just 300 MHz each of new spectrum on a national basis in auctions 101 and 102, that would double to triple the total amount of licensed spectrum each has to work with. And auction 103 is coming.

Here’s what spectrum holdings for major mobile networks and Dish Network looked like, before the latest millimeter wave auctions.  

source: Wells Fargo Securities

In part, that new capacity is required simply to support ever-growing mobile data consumption. But the almost-universal belief is that boosting capacity so much will create new use cases, apps, services and revenue sources. Some of the use cases will develop based on ultra-low latency; others on ultra-high bandwidth.

In other instances, use cases grow not directly from 5G spectrum but from the ability to aggregate, share and dynamically allocate spectrum for private or enterprise networks as well as conventional mobile service.

The availability of so much more capacity means fixed wireless now might be feasible, on terms and conditions and make it a feasible substitute for fixed network access. That could change the fortunes of mobile and fixed network suppliers alike.