Researchers at Omdia estimate that international wholesale voice revenue will continue to decline at a compound average rate of growth of -4.8 percent through 2021 (and likely beyond) under the threat from over-the-top voice and messaging services. That trend was not completely clear 20 years ago, as the number of people using phones has grown dramatically.
Since then, especially as voice and messaging alternatives have grown, with declines starting in the U.S. market about 2001, and elsewhere about 2003.
In the monopoly era, it was principally such revenues that produced most of the profits in the telecom industry, and provided the surplus to support consumer services that, in many cases, actually lost money.
The industry long ago ceased to rely on international voice as the key revenue source. By the 1990s, mobile services had taken the place of international voice as the key revenue growth driver. More recently, text messaging and internet access have taken the place of mobile voice growth.
A similar trend can be noted for European Union mobile revenues between 2010 and 2018, a period of less than a decade, but still a time when voice revenue dropped from about 80 billion euros to about 45 billion euros, while messaging dropped from about 19 billion euros to perhaps 10 billion euros and mobile internet access grew from about 18 billion euros to perhaps 42 billion euros.
In the U.S. market, long distance voice still provided nearly half of all U.S. telco revenues. By 2007, mobility had grown to about half, while long distance had shrunk to about 18 percent.
What comes after mobility is a big question.
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