Work from Home Winners and Losers?

Most technologies are complementary to others. We have a need for transportation, but many modes to fulfill that need. 

But one can always get a vigorous debate about the degree to which conferencing platforms can permanently replace face-to-face interactions. Nearly two thirds of all current jobs cannot be done remotely, a study by the U.S. National Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates. Other studies also estimate that about 34 percent of jobs could be done entirely from home. 

That probably is not the point. Most people seem to agree that information and office workers will continue to do some work from home, some of the time, and likely more in the future than they have in the past. A related issue for firms and organizations is the degree to which conferencing can permanently replace travel and face-to-face meetings.

It might be fair to note that “Zoom fatigue” reflects the preferred communications methods workers express. A study sponsored by Adobe found that in-person communications by far tops videoconferencing, by about a 28:1 margin. 

That arguably is most important in new business relationships, where establishing trust is essential, and less important for internal company or organization meetings where relationships are well established. 

source: Adobe

We do not know the answer to the question of how effective remote work will be, in the future, compared to older patterns.

Many are optimistic about permanently changed work patterns, where many people spend more time working from home; less in the office. As always, there are likely to be winners and losers, as there always are whenever decisions are made. 

Based on prior research, it might be argued that younger workers, earlier in their career, are at greater risk than more-established workers.  “We argue that face time helps employees to receive better work and leads to career advancement,” researchers said in a 2018 study. 

“When employees are geographically distributed from managers who control the assignment of work, they are often unable to display face time,” and that can inhibit career progress, researchers say. To be sure, some might argue that videoconferencing is a form of “face time.” 

“Employees who work remotely may end up getting lower performance evaluations, smaller raises and fewer promotions than their colleagues in the office, even if they work just as hard and just as long,” said researchers Kimberly Elsbach and Daniel Cable. 

“Companies rarely promote people into leadership roles who haven’t been consistently seen and measured,” Jack and Suzy Welch have argued. “It’s a familiarity thing, and it’s a trust thing.”

“We’re not saying that the people who get promoted are stars during every ‘crucible’ moment at the office, but at least they’re present and accounted for,” the Welches say. 

To the extent that work from home becomes a full-time pattern for many workers, we should expect to see winners and losers. Younger workers and new hires might fare less well than more-established or older workers.