What Happens to Bandwidth Growth after Pandemic?

Covid-19 traffic growth ”is largely a one-off phenomenon” say researchers at TeleGeography, after interviewing dozens of capacity executives. If capacity suppliers really expected a permanent increase in demand or rates of growth, they would also be changing their capacity-expansion plans. They are not. 

That might come as a surprise, given the 25-percent to 40-percent boost in traffic caused by stay-at-home policies. 

To be clear, what TeleGeography argues is that the temporary change in bandwidth demand caused by stay-at-home policies will not persist. Usage levels will return to prior pre-pandemic patterns. 

Many argue that “Covid caused a year’s worth of change in a month.” But that is not the same as arguing that the rate of change is permanently altered. Instead, consumption patterns suddenly grew to levels not anticipated for a year or so in the future. As shown below, there was a step change, with long-term trends intact. 

source: Chief Martec

But TeleGeography implies that the capacity spike will not persist. It is not a permanent change in growth, but a one-time spike in usage that might well return to prior levels. In other words, even the present higher levels of usage will continue. 

“Initial evidence suggests that the spike in the rate of bandwidth and traffic growth from the pandemic may be a one-time event” and will “return to typical rates of growth,” TeleGeography says. “Operators we spoke to indicated they were not making major upward adjustments to their demand forecasts due to Covid-19.”

To be sure, that could be interpreted as meaning the former rates of growth will reassert themselves. The possibilities include a return to former--and lower--levels of consumption. 

Another possibility is a return to the underlying long-term rate of change, but from a higher point than expected. In either case, prior assumptions about capacity growth seem to be unaffected. Capacity suppliers are not changing their original, pre-pandemic forecasts. 

That implies a belief that the spike in demand is temporary, and will not persist. Once people are able to go back to work and school, the “new” demand drivers will largely dissipate.