Echoes of "Dotcom" for Large Language Models

Given the amount of hype around large language models, which seemingly has lots of firms deploying it at some level just to be seen as doing it, it won’t be long now before we start seeing lots of articles lamenting the fact that large language models are not producing results for firms that are using them. 

No truly-important general purpose technology is going to produce clear results right away. And even technologies most observers would consider useful, but not GPTs, similarly take some time to reach as much as 10 percent use by the relevant potential-user base (people, homes, businesses). 

Technology	Year of Introduction	Time to 10% Adoption (Years)	Notes
Electricity	1873	46	Homes in US
Telephone	1876	39	Households in US
Automobile	1886	51	Individuals in US
Radio	1920	14	Households in US
Television	1948	12	Households in US
Computer	1975	23	Households in US
Internet	1995	10	Individuals in US
Smartphone	2007	6	Individuals globally
Social Media	2004	7	Individuals globally

As was true during an earlier time for the internet, when many firms engaged in a mania to rename themselves X.com, there is lots of almost-blind posturing going on. 

Large language models will be deployed where it does not make much sense, and where measurable results will be nil, if clear benefits exist at all.