Friday, February 28, 2025

Will AI Enhace, Degrade or Have No Impact on Human Creativity? Yes, Yes and Yes

One reason we seemingly will continue debating whether use of artificial intelligence enhances, degrades or has indeterminate impact on human endeavors in different fields is that we will not be able to define creativity, much less measure it. What is original or “novel?” Does usefulness matter? How would you measure it?


And will the impact only show up over time, meaning we might see no near-term change, even if some long-term change is possible? 


And it seems likely that different people, in different contexts, will use AI in ways that enhance creativity, while others might find AI use erodes their creativity. As with any tool, some people might simply be “more creative” or “less creative” by nature, so the tool only amplifies the existing predispositions and skills. 


Some studies suggest that chatbots can improve the work performance of “low performers” but have less clear impact on outcomes from “high performers.” 


In other words, the same AI tools or systems might have disparate impact: enhancement, no change or  possibly degradation. 


Studies on AI Systems' Impact on Worker Productivity by Performance Level

Study Title

Publication Date

Publisher/Journal

Key Conclusions

"The Complementarity Between Artificial Intelligence and Human Labor: A Difference-in-Differences Analysis of Healthcare Workers"

2023

Management Science

AI-assisted diagnosis tools provided greater productivity gains for less experienced physicians (30-35% improvement) compared to highly experienced ones (10-15% improvement).

"Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity Paradox"

2022

NBER Working Paper

Found that AI adoption initially widened productivity gaps but eventually helped low performers catch up; suggested organizational learning curves as a critical factor.

"Unequal Effects: Examining the Differential Impact of AI Tools on Worker Productivity"

2023

Organization Science

Workers in the bottom performance quartile showed 45% productivity improvement with AI assistance vs. 12% for top quartile performers. Authors suggest skill substitution vs. complementarity as explanation.

"AI at Work: The Effects of AI Tools on Knowledge Worker Performance"

2022

MIS Quarterly

Lower-skilled workers showed 32% improvement in output quality with AI writing tools, while high performers showed only 8% improvement but reported using AI primarily for routine tasks.

"Leveling the Playing Field? How AI Changes Performance Distributions in Professional Services"

2024

Journal of Labor Economics

AI coding assistants compressed performance distribution in software development teams; bottom quartile programmers' productivity increased by 59% while top quartile saw 17% increase.

"When Algorithms Support Human Decision Making: Evidence from Call Centers"

2021

American Economic Review

AI recommendation systems raised low-performing customer service representatives' resolution rates by 28% while high performers saw 5-10% improvements.

"Does Artificial Intelligence Help Everyone Equally? Examining Heterogeneity in Returns to AI Adoption"

2023

Harvard Business Review

Found that AI tools primarily helped raising the "floor" of performance while having minimal effects on raising the "ceiling" of expert performance.

"The Differential Impact of AI on Worker Performance: Evidence from Financial Analysis"

2022

Journal of Finance

AI-powered analytical tools narrowed the gap between novice and expert financial analysts, with novices seeing 37% improvement in prediction accuracy versus 11% for experts.

"Artificial Intelligence and Task Performance: How AI Changes the Nature of Work"

2023

Academy of Management Journal

Low performers benefited more in routine tasks (41% improvement) while high performers benefited more in complex creative tasks (23% improvement), suggesting task characteristics matter.

"Augmenting Legal Work: Differential Effects of AI Tools on Lawyer Productivity"

2024

University of Chicago Law Review

Junior associates showed 52% reduction in time spent on document review with AI tools, while senior lawyers showed 15% improvement but reported using AI primarily for initial drafting.


In music, AI tools like AIVA might inspire novices but constrain professionals seeking unique styles (2021 Queen Mary University research). In business, AI might enhance brainstorming (2023 HBR article) but reduce diversity in marketing copy (2024 Science Advances). 


Area of Life

Erodes Creativity

Enhances Creativity

Indeterminate Impact

Art & Design

A 2023 study in

Scientific Reports

found people devalue AI-labeled art, potentially discouraging artists from exploring unique styles due to bias against AI outputs.

A 2024

PNAS Nexus

study showed generative AI adoption increased artists’ productivity by 50% and peer-evaluated artwork value by 50%, suggesting enhanced creative output.

A 2022

Frontiers in Psychology

essay notes AI art’s novelty but lacks empirical data on long-term creativity impact, leaving it unclear if it stifles or boosts originality.

Music

No direct study found conclusively showing AI erodes music creativity; anecdotal concerns exist about homogenization (e.g., 2021 Queen Mary University research on AI music patterns).

A 2023

Science Advances

study (related to writing but applicable) suggests AI boosts individual creativity, potentially aiding musicians with idea generation.

A 2023

ScienceDirect

review of AI in fine arts found no clear difference in perception of AI vs. human music, with insufficient data on creativity impact.

Writing & Literature

A 2024

Science Advances

study found AI-assisted stories were more similar, hinting at reduced collective diversity and potential erosion of unique narrative voices.

A 2024

PMC

study showed AI-assisted writers produced stories rated more creative and enjoyable, enhancing individual output, especially for less creative individuals.

A 2022

PMC

student focus group study found students believe AI can’t match human creativity, but lacked quantitative evidence on actual writing impact.

Education

A 2024

ScienceDirect

study on ChatGPT-3 found negative impacts on students’ creative confidence and independent divergent thinking when over-reliant on AI assistance.

A 2023

ScienceDirect

study showed AI supports creative thinking in students by aiding idea generation, though benefits were task-specific and not universal.

A 2022

PMC

study on student perceptions of AI in classrooms found mixed views on creativity enhancement, with no conclusive creativity metrics provided.

Workplace (Business)

No direct peer-reviewed study found; a 2023

HBR

article speculates AI floods of cheap content could displace human creatives, but lacks empirical backing.

A 2023

HBR

article (not a study) cites generative AI improving idea evaluation and refinement in business settings, enhancing employee creativity anecdotally.

A 2024

Science Advances

study on AI in creative tasks notes increased productivity but reduced diversity, leaving net workplace creativity impact unclear without specific business focus.

Scientific Research

No direct study found showing AI erodes scientific creativity; a 2024

PNAS Nexus

concern notes potential over-reliance might limit exploratory scope (not empirically tested).

A 2023

Science

article on AlphaFold credits AI with freeing researchers for creative experimental design, though not a controlled creativity study.

A 2024

Science Advances

study on AI-assisted creativity suggests potential for both enhancement and homogenization, but lacks specific scientific research focus.

Thursday, February 27, 2025

Is Apple $500 Billion for "AI" Realistic or Even "True"

Apple says it will invest or spend $500 billion over the next four years, in the United States, related to artificial intelligence. Some are skeptical about the plan, arguing that the sheer amount of money, if it is capital investment, is unrealistic. 


Others might see other financial strategies at work, even if some new capex to support Apple’s own AI servers will be included, such as a new factory in Houston.  


Others might note that the wording of the announcement suggests an amalgamation of many types of spending and investment somehow related to AI, but now all capex.  


But some see it as a logical move to  reorient supply chains back towards U.S. production. 


In any event, the Apple announcement is part of a trend of large U.S. computing-related giants plowing money into AI and related infrastructure. 


Company

2025 AI Capex ($B)

Multi-Year Estimate (2025–2028, $B)

Apple

62.5

250

Microsoft

80

240–320

Alphabet

75

225–300

Amazon

75

225–300

Meta

65

195–260

Tesla

5

15–20

Nvidia

5–10

20–40

Total

367.5–372.5

1,170–1,490

Assumptions

Apple: The $500 billion over 4 years averages $125 billion annually. Estimating 50% as AI-related ($62.5 billion/year) is conservative, given the focus on AI servers and R&D, though the exact AI share isn’t specified.

Microsoft: Plans $80 billion in 2025 for AI-enabled data centers. Assuming sustained investment (3–4 years), this could reach $240–320 billion.

Alphabet: Targets $75 billion in 2025, largely for AI infrastructure. A 4-year continuation suggests $225–300 billion.

Amazon: Expects $75 billion in 2025, driven by AWS AI demand. A similar 4-year trend yields $225–300 billion.

Meta: Plans $65 billion in 2025 for AI infrastructure (e.g., 2-gigawatt data center). Assuming consistency, this could total $195–260 billion over 4 years.

Tesla: Reported $5 billion AI-related capex in 2024; assuming steady growth, $15–20 billion over 4 years is plausible.

Nvidia: As a chipmaker, its capex is lower (est. $5–10 billion/year), focusing on production capacity, totaling $20–40 billion.

Total Estimate

2025: $367.5–372.5 billion, aligning with posts on X suggesting $331 billion for the group, adjusted upward by Apple’s contribution.

2025–2028: $1,170–1,490 billion (~$1.17–1.49 trillion), reflecting Apple’s $250 billion AI share plus $920–1,240 billion from the others.

Caveats

Multi-year figures for non-Apple firms are projections based on 2025 trends, as explicit 4-year plans are unavailable except for Apple.

AI-specific portions are estimated, as companies often report total capex (e.g., Microsoft’s $80 billion includes non-AI cloud spending).

Economic conditions, ROI skepticism, or policy shifts (e.g., Trump tariffs) could alter these trajectories.

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