Sprint and Clearwire Might Go LTE for 4G

Sprint Nextel and Clearwire executives have said for some time that WiMAX and Long Term Evolution are similar enough that Clearwire could switch to LTE at some point. But that is more likely to happen when another technology migration to "fifth-generation" technology happens, not in the fourth generation.

In one respect, battles over air interface are simply part of the mobility business. Just as AT&T and T-Mobile opted for the GSM air interface while Sprint and Verizon opted for the rival CDMA air interface, and similar battles were fought over 2G standards, carriers will have to migrate their platforms over time, just as they always have.

The evolution from GSM (3G) to LTE (4G) will still require a new network, with a new air interface, operating on discrete spectrum and requiring new handsets and software. For that reason, each technology generation requires a fork lift upgrade and a refresh of consumer terminals as well. That's just part of the business.

So though Clearwire and Sprint chose WiMAX for 4G, their options for 5G remain open, and both Dan Hesse, Sprint CEO, and Bill Morrow, Clearwire CEO, say they could opt for an LTE derivative for 5G.

Hesse says the choice of WiMAX was based on the fact that Sprint could not wait for LTE standards to jell. It had a business need to move, so it did. "WiMax was tried-and-true tested technology at the time we made the choice," he says. "We couldn't wait."

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Verizon Says Average LTE Speeds Will be 5 Mbps to 12 Mbps, Peak of 40 Mbps to 50 Mbps

Verizon Wireless says its 4G Long Term Evolution network field trials in Boston and Seattle indicate the network is capable of peak download speeds of 40 to 50 megabits per second and peak upload speeds of 20 to 25 Mbps, with average data rates of 5 Mbps to 12 Mbps on the downlink and 2 Mbps to 5 Mbps on the uplink in real-world environments.

Verizon says it will have the new network up and running in 25 to 30 markets by the end of 2010 and will reach about 100 million people.

Aside from the speed advantages, what might be important for many users is better indoor reception. The new LTE network will operate in the 700-MHz frequencies, which means signals will penetrate building walls far better than signals now used in the 2-GHz range.

You can make your own decisions about whether the higher speeds make wireless a reasonable substitute for fixed connections. If a user downloads a lot of video, the answer likely is "no." But if a user is a lighter user, LTE might well be a workable solution for at least some percentage of users.

We have seen what mobility has done to demand for fixed voice connections. We should soon see whether the same thing happens in the broadband access arena.

Top Five Hot Topics at Mobile World Congress 2010

The Top-Five hot topics at the Mobile World Congress this year, according to analysts at Juniper Research, are:

1. Flurry of launches to increase competition in the smartphone space
2. Operators announce Apps Community
3. GSMA embarks on LTE interconnection standards
4. NFC payment trial at Mobile World Congress to presage widespread NFC adoption?
5. Android platform gains critical mass- the rise of the open source OS

Smartphone launches from Samsung, Sony Ericsson, ZTE, Motorola Acer and several others will dramatically increase competition in the smartphone space, says John Levett, Juniper Research analyst.

In the apps market, the launch by 24 mobile operators of a "Wholesale Applications Community" should allow for mobile internet and applications to be downloaded without the potential headache of conflicting technologies, he says.

With LTE now boasting several live roll-outs and as many as 75 build-out commitments, some 40 mobile industry organizations have now backed industry association GSMA’s initiative to standardise the delivery of voice and messaging services for LTE.

A SIM-based mobile payments trial by the GSMA, Samsung, Telefonica, and several partners could herald a new era in the development of mobile payments using near field communications technology.

MWC 2010 also has seen a proliferation of mobile handsets using Google’s Android platform with announcements from Alcatel, Dell, HTC, LG, Motorola, Samsung, Sony Ericsson and ZTE. that means a higher-profile for open source operating systems overall.

http://www.juniperresearch.com/analyst-xpress-blog/2010/02/17/top-five-hot-topics-at-mobile-world-congress-2010/

GSM Association Embraces "One Voice"

The GSM Association has adopted the "One Voice Initiative" as a way of delivering voice and messaging services for fourth-generation Long-Term Evolution (LTE) services. One Voice is based on IP Multimedia Subsystems and will provide a standard for voice and text messaging interconnection and international roaming on 4G networks, just as carriers now support 2G and 3G interworking.

The GSMA’s Voice over LTE (VoLTE) initiative has the backing of more than 40 organizations from across the mobile ecosystem.

Mobile operators supporting the initiative include 3 Group, AT&T, Bell Canada, China Mobile, Deutsche Telekom/T-Mobile, KDDI, mobilkom austria, MTS, NTT DoCoMo, Orange, SKT, SoftBank, Telecom Italia, Telecom New Zealand, Telefónica, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Verizon Wireless and Vodafone.

Handset manufacturers and equipment vendors supporting the initiative include Acme Packet, Alcatel-Lucent, Aylus, Camiant, Cisco, Colibra, Communigate, Comneon, Ericsson, Fujitsu, Genband, Huawei, LG, Motorola, Movial, Mu, NEC, Nokia, Nokia Siemens Networks, Qualcomm, RADVISION, Samsung, Sony Ericsson and Tekelec.

Cox Communications Plans CDMA, LTE Networks

Cox Cummunications is moving ahead with its plans to build an in-region moble broadband network using CDMA, the same platform used by Verizon Wireless and Sprint Nextel. Cox is said to be thinking more along the lines of Long Term Evolution for its fourth-generation network.

Huawei Technologies Co. says it has been selected to provide its end-to-end CDMA solutions and services to Cox Communications. Cox, the third-largest cable provider in the United States, will launch its new 3G wireless network utilizing Huawei’s LTE-ready SingleRAN solution and industry-leading 3900 Series base stations, Huawei says.

Cox might rely on its partnership with Clearwire or Sprint for out-of-region roaming. As Sprint's national network uses CDMA, it makes sense to rely on the Sprint network rather than WiMAX for out of region coverage.

http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=174434&site=cdn

The Trouble with WiMAX

The "trouble" with WiMAX, I've maintained, has nothing to do with performance, or necessarily with network cost. The technology will work. The issue is how and where WiMAX fits in the business environment. In developed markets where lots of competition already exists, the issue is figuring out where WiMAX plays in the applications environment. As a fixed alternative to cable modem, fiber-to-customer or Digital Subscriber Line services, the issue is how big a market exists. As a mobile broadband platform, the issue is how it competes with 3G networks and Long Term Evolution, the GSM-based fourth generation network alternative.

There's less contention in rural areas or less-developed broadband environments. Where it is too expensive to deploy a terrestrial broadband network, WiMAX has a clear logic. Even there, though, there might be questions about how more-established mobile voice and 3G networks factor into the competitive equation. One certainly can argue that WiMAX will provide much more bandwidth than 3G, today. The issue is how long it will take to create robust revenue models for 3G services, let alone providing those services more effectively over a faster 4G network.

It is, in short, a business issue, not a technology issue. To be sure, one can argue that a new market for broadband-enabled devices other than mobile phones is coming to fruition. But the issue there remains whether WiMAX necessarily or primarily provides access to those devices in ways that 3G cannot, let alone 4G. One might argue that WiMAX has a shot at providing access to all kinds of consumer devices other than "phones." But one might also argue that such connectivity has to be much cheaper than anything we've seen so far.

WiMAX networks might be half as costly as a 3G network to build. But that's not enough. They also have to be less than half as costly to operate, or prices won't be low enough to entice users to pay for connections to cameras, music players, game or entertainment platforms, for example. Those functions also are enabled on 3G networks, in many cases, combining the text and voice functions with the very services WiMAX might enable.

WiMAX might not prove to have the market traction its supporters hope for, in other words, at least in developed broadband markets where there is robust competition from cable modem, DSL, fiber to home, 3G mobile, fixed wireless, Wi-Fi hotspot and satellite broadband alternatives. The difference could come if WiMAX becomes the mobile provider 4G platform or if mobile WiMAX access is priced well below current mobile rates, allowing customers to access enable more devices than they now do.

It is not unthinkable for users to consider simultaneous broadband subscriptions. But it does require a more-compelling value/price relationship. We can assume standard-issue mobile phones, increasingly of the "smart" variety and optimized for Web experiences. We also can assume greater penetration of wireless data cards to support notebook PC use in nomadic fashion. What is not yet clear is the potential demand for broadband-connected music players, cameras, game players, dedicated navigation devices or video players. How many different subscriptions are users willing to pay for?

There is some thinking that WiMAX will be used especially heavily by mobile PC customers, as WiMAX is seen as powering a good chunk of the access card business.

“In 2010, the forecasted WiMAX subscriptions in North America will represent two percent of that for mobile 2.5G/3G and 66 percent of the subscriptions for mobile data cards,” say Philip Marshall, Yankee Group vice president, and Tara Howard, Yankee Group analyst.

Yankee Group estimates the number of WiMAX subscribers will increase from 1.3 million to 7.8 million between 2006 and 2011 and that in 2011, 7 million subscribers will be using 802.16e technology. Some percentage of that use will be for fixed broadband access, of course.

Assume such forecasts are correct. The percentage of WiMAX subscribers relative to residential broadband subscribers in the North American market then will increase from 2.2 percent to 7.4 percent between 2006 and 2010. Whatever else one might say about this level of adoption, it certainly doesn’t represent some sort of full-blown challenge to cable modem, DSL or fiber-to-customer access technologies. In fact, WiMAX, if it is adopted as Yankee Group researchers now forecast, will be yet another ancillary or niche form of broadband access.

So in mature markets, the major upside opportunity for WiMAX is expected with mobile personal broadband services, with fixed and portable services gaining moderate early market traction. In some Asian markets, such as Korea, it is conceivable that WiMAX-based mobile broadband could succeed, despite the existence of robust 3G and mobile video alternatives.

Still, the ultimate role of WiMAX in the wireless market is debatable, says a recent Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development report. “Large supporters such as Intel have a vision that WiMAX will change the way we all access the Internet in a matter of years,” says the report.

“Detractors claim that the economics of large-scale WiMAX networks are simply not justified,” the OECD report suggests.

Mobile WiMAX technologies may have the most profound impact in some urban areas because they could fill a connectivity void between 3G data networks and Wi-Fi, though.

Ultimately, this will not be a matter of technology, but of commercial issues and creation of new niches. It's hard to see GSM mobile operators going with WiMAX as a full-blown replacement for 3G, when LTE is coming. And it isn't simply a matter of technical performance. Smooth migration paths are important for large carriers. WiMAX might be too abrupt a transition for many. That might not be the case in undeveloped broadband markets, where a fixed broadband capability is reason enough to deploy it. Mobile broadband is a tougher matter, though.

Right and Wrong, But for the Wrong Reasons

In its story on "Technology in 2008," The Economist makes three predictions, one that will not happen in 2008, one of which could--but won't--happen and one which already happened. The three:
1. surfing will slow
2. surfing will go mobile
3. networks will go open

Oddly, the article predicts the Internet will clog because of spam. The article also says access pipes operate "symmetrically." If only it were so! The article is more apt when it says user-generated content, especially of the video sort, will stress the networks. "Gridlock" is the prediction. But it won't happen. Pipes are being upgraded and "reasonable use" policies are going to change. Traffic shaping is coming and access pipes are getting bigger. "Surfing" isn't going to slow.

The article is correct in noting that wireless access is coming. But the article implies that it is the 700-MHz auctions that will drive the change. Keep in mind, these are predictions for 2008. There is no way any new network using 700-MHz spectrum is going to be operating in 2008. And the tier one mobile providers are doing everything they can to convince more users to buy data access plans, with modest success so far. It's coming, no doubt about it. But it's been coming for years.

Use of data cards, browsing plans and email access plans will grow incrementally, and at a faster rate, to be sure. But there's no "big bang" coming in 2008. The trend began years ago.

In predicting that we'll see more "openness" in mobile networks, the article is on track. Perhaps the article focuses a bit too much on open operating systems and not enough on unlocked phones and access, but of the three predictions, this one is most nearly correct. But a new operating open network in the U.S. market at 700 MHz, in 2008. Absolutely no way.

Web services are going mobile and open, no doubt. But neither trend is specific to 2008.

LTE: 160 Mbps Bandwidth in Test by Nokia Siemens

Nokia Siemens Networks has completed the world’s first multi-user field trial in an urban environment, reaching speeds in excess of 160 Mbps.

The test of Long Term Evolution (LTE) technology, which supports mobile data rates up to 173 Megabits per second, was conducted in a real urban outdoor environment with multiple users using the new 2.6 GHz spectrum.

It confirms that LTE performance requirements can be met using 3GPP standardized technologies and it realized data rates of more than 100 Mega bits per second over distances of several hundred meters, while maintaining excellent throughput at the edge of typical urban mobile radio cells.

Whither WiMAX?

It might seem odd to question just how big the WiMAX infrastructure market might be, given strong support from the likes of Intel and others who see a data device optimized broadband network as a huge opportunity. And maybe WiMAX ultimately will create a large enough global base of infrastructure that handset and device manufacturers will have a large opportunity.

But potential end user volumes matter, and matter a lot, in today's world. The issue isn't whether WiMAX will work. CDMA works. But global volumes for GSM networks are so large that device innovation is higher on the GSM than the CDMA sides of the ledger. Volume also is a factor for software developers, who prefer larger markets to smaller markets.

Sprint got people excited with plans to build a $5-billion, nation-wide network in the U.S. but that strategy is now in question. Sure, there's the rest of the world, but if you have followed mobile technology trends for any time, you are more careful about the installed base, and the potential installed base.

In the third-quarter, Infonetics Research says, worldwide WiMax equipment sales climbed a mere six percent to $206-million. Meanwhile, worldwide unit shipments of fixed and mobile WiMAX equipment rose 16 percent in the third quarter of 2007.

Still, Infonetics is looking for Wi-Max to see annual growth of 87 percent between 2006 and 2010 as more carriers embrace the fourth-generation technology.

The number of worldwide WiMAX subscribers (fixed and mobile) is expected to skyrocket to close to 60 million in 2010, led by the Asian region, Infonetics says.

Still, there is the historic example of iDEN and CDMA to consider. Devices are more important than networks these days. And one has to contend with the issue of sheer mass, in that regard. There's no question that WiMAX will work. But that's not the crucial question. The issue is how large the market for WiMAX devices might be, compared to GSM and its derivatives.

Sprint Stands Alone

Now that Verizon Wireless has selected Long Term Evolution as its fourth-generation platform, and if Sprint continues with its WiMAX fourth-generation network platform, prospects for CDMA are dim in the U.S. market.

Of course, there always is the possibility that Sprint might reverse course and abandon WiMAX. But Sprint Nextel at the moment really stands alone in the platform area. It runs the Nextel iDEN network that no other major carrier supports and CDMA-based 3G that Verizon says it will abandon.

It is hard to imagine T-Mobile adopting anything other than LTE, so it appears CDMA is at a deadend in the U.S. market.

Verizon to Dump CDMA for 4G

Verizon Wireless will base its fourth-generation mobile broadband network on LTE – Long Term Evolution – the technology developed within the Third Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) standards organization and based on GSM.

The selection of LTE means Verizon wants to align itself with the scale opportunities the global standard will provide, rather than extending its existing CDMA platform.

Verizon and Vodafone have a coordinated trial plan for LTE that begins in 2008. Trial suppliers include Alcatel-Lucent, Ericsson, Motorola, Nokia-Siemens, and Nortel. Discussions with device suppliers have expanded beyond traditional suppliers such as LG, Samsung, Motorola, Nokia, and Sony Ericsson, as consumer electronics companies anticipate embedded wireless functionality in their future products.

Users won't see 4G for several years, however, so there's no need to worry about existing CDMA equipment. The decision does call into question how much actual developer interest there will be in Verizon's new "open" CDMA platform, however.