How Does iPad Affect Smartphone Browsing?

For people who keep track of statistics such as smartphone operating system market share, device behavior and trends, the iPad and other tablets are going to complicate matters. Should these devices be tracked with smartphones, with PCs, or as a separate category.

Some might argue a tablet is like a smartphone, and should be included in smartphone stats, if the same operating systems are used for both the tablet and smartphone devices. Others will argue that will distort the smartphone data.

So far, it seems iPad usage is someplace between PC and smartphone usage, perhaps suggesting it might be a separate category.

"Among the 14 percent of our iPhone client users who use an iPad, their average session length is 12 percent longer than the average iPod Touch or iPhone users," says Kate Sellers Blatt, iPass director. Some other data suggest iPad owners use the Internet more than they do on their smartphones, but still far less than on their PCs.

Morgan Stanley estimates that iPad browsing activity already is greater than BlackBerry or Android smartphone activity, on a global basis.

If casual and anecdotal evidence is any indicator, most people use their iPads quite heavily in indoor environments, on couches, for example. Mobile devices also are used indoors, sometimes as much as half the time. But there are some indications iPad use is indoors as much as 90 percent of the time.

For the moment, I think it is more useful to consider tablets a separate category from smartphones or PCs, at least for tracking purposes.

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Tablets Becoming a User's Second PC

Tablets will be used as a second computer, primarily for media consumption, with a laptop becoming their principal computing device, Forrester Research analyst Sarah Epps says.

Tablet computers like Apple's iPad will outsell netbooks by 2012 and surpass desktops by 2015, growing at a 42 percent compound annual growth rate between now and 2015. She estimates there will be about 3.5 million tablets sold in 2010.

By 2015, only laptops will have a greater share of the market, with 42 percent, versus a projected 23 percent market share for tablets.

PC Sales Up by 52% Next Five Years, Forrester Says

Apple CEO Steve Jobs has compared the PC to a farm truck, saying that when America was an agrarian economy, “all cars were trucks because that’s what you needed on the farm."

The analogy is that PCs will be displaced by new devices such as the iPad.

Steve Ballmer, Microsoft CEO, obviously does not agree. “I think people are going to be using PCs in greater and greater numbers for years to come," he said. "The PC as we know it will continue to morph form factor."

Semantics aside, there still is a question: is the iPad something new, a new market, or simply a new PC form factor? Steve Jobs may not view the iPad as a PC, but we do, says Sarah Rotman Epps, Forrester Research analyst.

"Our view is that the consumer PC market in the United States is indeed getting bigger," she says. "Over the next five years, PC unit sales across all form factors will increase by 52 percent."

Desktops are the only type of PC whose numbers will be fewer in 2015 than they are today, she argues.

Growth will come from new form factors like tablets, but laptop sales will increase steadily also.

Tablets will, however, cannibalize netbooks, outselling netbooks starting in 2012.

In 2015, 23 percent of all PCs sold to consumers in the US will be tablets.

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iPad Browser Share Already Beating Android, BlackBerry

Though there are only two million iPads in the market, the iPad's share of the global browser market is already bigger than Android, BlackBerry, and the iPod touch, according to Morgan Stanley.

Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty says iPad usage is closer to a PC than a smartphone, which is not really surprising, since it's designed for web browsing. What is shocking is the rapid emergence of the iPad as a web appliance.

CHART OF THE DAY: iPad Browser Share Already Beating Android, BlackBerry

iPad Internet Usage Patterns Compared to Smartphone and PC

Normalizing Internet appliance behavior by setting Apple iPhone usage as the baseline, you can see pretty clearly that smartphone web behavior is distinct from PC usage.

So far, iPad usage (page views) is roughly twice what iPhone usage typically is, but less than what people tend to do on either Windows or Macintosh PCs.

Page views aren't the same thing as "bandwidth consumed," but you can see the pattern: desktop usage is heavier than smartphone patterns.

One suspects today's PC dongle user has a usage pattern more similar to an iPad user than a desktop user. Most of us probably think page view and bandwidth usage will intensify over time on every platform, but that the disparity between PC desktop and "phone" behavior will remain.

There likely are some people who view more web pages on their phones than on their desktops. Generally speaking, though, heavier use occurs on a PC, while smartphone usage is much lower, volume-wise.

Apple Demo Crashes: 570 Wi-Fi Networks Live in the Room

Sign of the times: Apple demo crashes. Attendees told to shut everything off. Why? "There are 570 Wi-Fi base stations operating in this room...That’s why our demo crashed.”

But the iPad updates are pretty amazing. About two million iPads were sold in the first 59 days (one every 3 seconds).

Some 35 million apps have been downloaded, about 17 per iPad.

Five of six biggest book publishers say the share of iPad e-books is 22 percent of all ebook sales in the first eight weeks.

There’s now more than 225,000 applications in the App Store and there have been five billion downloads.

About 15,000 apps are submitted every week, and 95 percent are approved in seven days.

iPad Gets 22% of E-Book Reader Market in Several Months on Market

Steve Jobs says Apple's iPad already has gotten 22 percent market share of e-book readers. Not too shabby for a product that allows users to read e-books as a feature, not as the primary device function.

Is Microsoft About to Fall Behind in Tablets AND Mobile Phones?

Goldman Sachs analysts caution that Microsoft is at risk of falling behind the iPad in the same way that the company fell behind the iPhone.

"Given iPad’s success, tablet PCs dominate many investor conversations, as it has created the potential of a fourth consumption device (PC, phone, TV and now tablet)," writes Goldman Sachs analyst Sarah Friar.

Microsoft seems to believe the tablet is simply another form factor for the PC. Apple perhaps doesn't agree, and maybe doesn't have to worry about which view is correct. If all Apple can do is make the absolute-best tablet PC, then it wins. If it uncovers the fourth media device, and executes, it also wins, and maybe wins even bigger.

But it is hard to see how Apple can lose, at this point. The bigger question is whether anybody else can win, and if they can, how big they can win.

As Ballmer shrugs off the iPad, Microsoft risks another late start:

Price is Key to Android Tablet Success

The latest Retrevo Pulse study asked over 1,000 people what phone they planned to buy this year and over 20 percent of the respondents indicated an iPhone. If that number holds up it could be another good year for Apple and the iPhone.

But the bigger issue is whether it already is essentially too late for other contestants to prevent Apple from dominating the category as it does MP3 players. So far, Apple, though a top contender, has not reached the level of market share domination in smartphones that it has in MP3 players. But nobody doubts Apple will try. And history suggests all other suppliers have to be worried about the sudden emergence of the tablet category as well.

Are we looking at another Apple dominated product category like the iPod did with MP3 players?

When Retrevo asked consumers what would prevent them from buying an iPad, the most common answer was “don’t need one,” followed by “too expensive.”

As most would have expected, users that already have an Apple PC or iPhone are more likely to think they need an iPad. When it looked at the iPhone owners, Retrevo found only 26 percent of those users thought they didn't “need” an iPad.

The Retrevo study also suggests that the e-book reader market and the tablet PC markets are distinct, to an extent. The company found a significant number (40 percent) of consumers who own or plan to own an e-Reader also plan to buy an iPad in 2010.

When Retrevo asked consumers what would get them to buy an Android-based tablet over an iPad, the number one answer was “price.”

While 53 percent of  respondents said they weren’t interested in buying a tablet at all, of the other 47 percent who wanted one, a little over half (53 percent of those who said they wanted a tablet PC) said they’d buy an Android tablet if it was less expensive than an iPad.

Also, 33 percent said they would buy if the tablet used the Verizon network.

If manufacturers of Android-based tablest want to grab significant share in the market, the poll suggests there is at least one thing they can do: create a device that doesn't cost as much as the iPad.

read more here

"Smartbook" Category Crushed by Tablets, at Least for the Moment

Whatever became of “smartbooks”? At last January’s Consumer Electronics Show, some big hardware companies were using that name to describe new low-end computing devices that look like small laptops but use different chips and software. But that was before the iPad.

Now industry buzz has shifted pretty dramatically away from smartbooks to forthcoming slate-style devices that are expected to challenge Apple’s latest hit. “It’s fair to say the iPad and tablets are resetting everybody’s roadmap and forcing them to think about they are going to do next in a different light,” says Henri Richard, senior vice president and chief sales and marketing officer for Freescale Semiconductor, which has been marketing chips for smartbooks.

But backers of the concept say it’s not so much that smartbooks are stalled. Rather, there are simply so many new hardware and software options–and consumer preferences are so uncertain–that it’s too early to tell exactly what the most popular designs will be and what people will wind up calling them.

“This market between the phone and the laptop is an area that is undefined,” says Steve Mollenkopf, a Qualcomm executive vice president who is also president of its chip unit. “You will see a proliferation of different devices.”

Whether there is a single tablet category or possibly multiple categories, or whether tablets simply reshape existing categories, is yet to be determined. What does seem to be clear is that all the devices are intended to be "always connected."

From a suppliers’ perspective, companies that make cellphones or components for them want to expand their turf into larger products. That includes companies like Qualcomm, Freescale, Nvidia and others that have offered chips for the handset market based on technology from ARM Holdings. They can’t offer the ability to run conventional PC programs, but can boast long battery life and stress the “instant-on” nature of their machines–two of the chief selling points of smartbooks.

At the same time, makers of conventional laptops and their suppliers are trying to get into smaller devices. Chip giant Intel, for example, has helped popularized low-priced laptops called netbooks that mainly run Microsoft Windows. Intel has also been talking for some time about an even smaller, keyboardless category called MIDS, or mobile Internet devices–a term that seems to have been overshadowed by small-sized tablets.

But another way to look at the situation stems from what tasks a user is tackling. For example, touching the screen is the most efficient way to get some kinds of things done; for some chores–like composing a long document–a physical keyboard is the way to go.

Either way, at least for the moment, tablets have sucked all the oxygen out of the room.

Space Between Smartphone and Laptop Still in Flux

Suppliers have been trying to figure out the demand for, and requirements of, devices somewhere between high-end phones and lower-end PCs for some time, using the general "mobile internet devices" moniker.

In January 2010 much attention was focused on "smartbooks," positioned somewhere below "netbooks" at the low end of the PC category. Those devices tend to feature keyboards.

Post-iPad, the attention has turned squarely to tablet devices, using touchscreen interfaces only. Still, the ultimate shape of end user demand remains unsettled enough that a variety of form factors, operating systems and processor approaches will continue to be tested.

“This market between the phone and the laptop is an area that is undefined,” says Steve Mollenkopf, a Qualcomm executive vice president who is also president of its chip unit. “You will see a proliferation of different devices.”

Some devices will use smartphone processors or operating systems and move up. Other devices might take PC processors and operating systems and move them down into the tablet space. But application use cases are ultimately likely to matter more.

Touchscreen devices likely will prove to be accepted for some uses, but not for others.  Content consumption might be the key use case for some users, while simple email and web browsing might emerge as the key application for others.

Web Browser Preferred Over Content Apps On The iPad

"I've tried a few content apps on the iPad, including the much discussed Wired app. But I don't like reading content via apps on the iPad and I gravitate to the Safari browser," says Fred Wilson, Union Square Ventures partner.

Among the reasons: the apps treat pages as monolithic objects so users cannot cut and paste text, follow links to other content apps, keep multiple pages open, use a common interface, or connect with social media.

Content apps do not allow use of search functions and cannot be aggreated using apps such as techmeme.

I Prefer The Web Browser Over Content Apps On The iPad:

iPad is What You Want, Not What You Need

Though we are far from knowing the ultimate success or impact of the tablet PC movement, there is some evidence that Apple is, in fact, creating yet another new market, rather than simply reshaping or displacing an older market.

Gartner Group analyst Carolina Milanesi says "I am also more convinced that this is a device that you want and not a device that you need." That is an instructive comment, as it suggests users may be finding the iPad less a full substitute for a notebook PC or netbook and more a "different" device that might be used in different ways.

"Between my iPhone and my MacBook Pro I have to consciously decide to use my iPad to do anything but read a book, which is the only thing I cannot do with the Pro and I would rather not do on the iPhone because of the screen."

The use case here is, as Apple hoped, something potentially different from a smartphone or a notebook PC.

iPad goes on sale today across key markets in Europe

I'm Afraid Greasy Screens are Just a New Fact of LIfe

Touchscreens on tablets, smartphones, MP3 players and all sorts of other gadgets just seem to be the way things are going. It's just a new maintenance chore we have to deal with.

Japanese Consumers Really Are Different

Japan often is looked to as a hothouse for new consumer electronics trends, especially in mobile, that migrate to Europe and then to the United States. There is much truth to that observation, but it is harder to explain why that might be the case.

Some observers would say Japanese consumers actually behave differently from consumers in other parts of the world. Consider that while Japanese companies remain major global players in flat-panel televisions, digital cameras and videogame systems, they have almost no presence outside of Japan in personal computers, mobile phones or home appliances, the Wall Street Journal reports.

Some analysts say a good part of the reason is that Japanese buyers are detail-oriented and prefer products packed with features. Furthermore, they will read thick instruction manuals from cover  to cover, and seem to prefer products made in Japan.

Most buyers outside of Japan expect new products to be simple and intuitive, and they are less concerned about a product's point of origin.

"The consumer in Japan thinks very differently than the global consumer," says Atul Goyal, an analyst at brokerage firm CLSA. "Once Japanese companies try to sell things to a global market, they need to understand how a global consumer reacts."

So it is something of a sea change that the Apple iPad seems to be resonating with Japanese consumers, as the iPad emphasizes ease of use.

Netbooks Squeezed Between iPads and Laptops

A new survey by Retrevo suggests netbook sales are getting pressure from iPads and notebooks, and the iPad might have gotten as much as 30 percent of potential netbook sales so far this year.

The Retrevo survey also suggests that consumers who were debating buying either an iPad or a netbook have decisively decided to buy an iPad. According to Retrevo, 78 percent of respondents who indicated they were waiving between an iPad and a netbook ultimately decided to buy an iPad.

Laptops are not as “portable” as netbooks but are getting cheaper. Of those consumers who wrestled with the decision to buy a netbook or laptop, 65 percent chose the laptop and 35 percent chose a netbook over a laptop.

Looking ahead, about 35 percent of consumers who say they are now considering a laptop or netbook purchase over the coming year say they are leaning toward a netbook over a laptop, while 65 percent are leaning toward a laptop over a netbook.

Retrevo therefore predicts netbook sales will get squeezed from two sides and will not be able to maintain past growth rates.

None of this yet settles the question of whether the iPad is "merely" a new form factor for mobile PCs or a new product category.

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New Dell "Streak" Tablet

I have no idea how well this new tablet driven by Android and featuring a five-inch screen will fare, compared to the nearly-10-inch screen on the iPad. But it will be very interesting to see whether the vastly-different form factor is the same, or a different use case.

Is the iPad Really a PC?

"The iPad is a new kind of PC, argues Sarah Rotman Epps, Forrester Research analyst. If so, it might be said to be so in the same way that a high-end smartphone also is a PC, which is to say an iPad both "is" and "isn't" a PC.

The iPad’s features don’t line up with what consumers think they want. The top features that consumers say they want in their next PC — DVD drives and burners, CD drives and burners,
and Webcams — are all absent from the iPad.

Click on the image for a larger view.

The features that the iPad does have, such as a touchscreen, are lower on the list of features buyers say they are looking for.

Two-thirds of U.S. online consumers say they want a DVD drive in their next PC, while only 22 percent want a touchscreen. This doesn’t mean that consumers won’t buy the iPad without these features, but it does mean that Apple will need to teach consumers that they can live without them in the device.

So a question yet to be answered is whether people will figure out "what" the tablet PC is, and how it can be used. Form factor might be important as users try to figure out what a device between a smartphone and a PC looks like, and what it must do to be useful.

Access for "One Price Across Digital Platforms" Will Come

In a move with likely implications for the evolving Internet access business, The New Yorker will let readers pay once for digital access across the iPad, the Kindle and other platforms, hoping to improve on the current industry practice of charging even subscribers for each edition on each device.

The same sort of thing ultimately will happen in broadband access as well, as users start to experience greater pain paying separately, by the device, by the form of access, by the place for their broadband access services.

Both AT&T and Verizon already have spoken about a future scenario where an authorized user can use wireless and wired broadband access, across multiple devices. Think of it as a sort of family plan for individual users, where the "family" includes all the communications-capable devices a particular user wants to use.

If you think the future will feature communications need for a wide variety of appliances, used across home and mobile enviornments, but with differing usage characteristics, a unified plan makes sense.

New Yorker Plans One Price Across Digital Platforms - Advertising Age - MediaWorks

What People Do With Their iPads

A new survey by Changewave Research of iPad owners suggests that the device is being used just about as Apple expected it would: as a content consumption device able to support the types of "content creation" most people do, namely send emails.

It isn't clear whether this usage profile is much different from what most consumers would do with their netbooks, notebooks or desktop PCs, but so far the iPad is not being used as a "content creation" or "work" device, as most would have expected would be the case.
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