Practical Anthropology at Swisscom and Microsoft

An anthropologist at Microsoft points out that when instant messaging and other social networking tools are taken away from people (especially people under the age of 35), productivity drops. That's an indication that social networking is becoming a key problem solving tool, not a "time waster" as many managers seem to believe. Swisscom Innovations anthropologist Stefana Broadbent points out that use of written channels, ranging from IM to text messaging to email is growing, while voice growth has slowed where text communications are possible.

Broadbent theorizes that written channels allow constant interplay and availability without creating an information overload. A person without online social tools averages about 20 contacts with whom they keep in touch. A person with online tools can maintain 70 or more contacts, she notes. She theorizes that IM, for example, is both fast and non-committal, allowing a wider circle of contacts without overload.

That's an interesting perspective as more people start to worry we all are too connected, too much of the time. Broadbent argues that people should not have to unplug. In fact, she rhetorically asks, "why would I want to unplug?"

And she questions the notion that most people actually are overloaded with communication requests. "Most people we interview get five emails a day," says Broadbent. "They are thrilled to get one more friend on Facebook, for example."

Though the common perception is that most people are overloaded with communications, Broadbent says that isn't true. "Not many people are overloaded," she says.

"I'm opposed to the notion of unplugging," Broadbent says. "I don't want to lose my social intelligence network." To Broadbent, "IM is like bringing your dog to work."

Though I don't see lots of evidence that "always connected" behavior is all that important to most people over the age of 40 or so, I am beginning to see how most of the social networking tools can increase knowledge diffusion and make possible a wider degree of casual monitoring of one's environment. I wouldn't say I find it as helpful as RSS. But part of the reason is that most of the people I normally want to interact with do not seem to be heavy social networkers.

It's a Wireless World

Wireless revenue passed landline revenue internationally in 2006 and will be 59 percent greater by 2010, says the Telecommunications Industry Association. In the global markets, that means wireless customers outside the United States will increase by 975 million people by 2010, when the wireless total will reach 3.13 billion.

Wireless customers in the United States, meanwhile, will total 270 million in 2010, up from 216 million last year and 135 million just five years earlier. Wireless customers in the Asia/Pacific region totaled 963 million at the end of 2006 and are expected to total 1.58 billion by 2010, more than twice the number expected to be in Europe by then.

Wireless data revenue in the United States was nearly $13 billion last year and is expected to reach $44 billion in 2010, TIA notes.

Layoffs at SunRocket

SunRocket apparently has laid off a third of its workforce; between 40 and 60 people, sources say. The independent VoIP provider has been trying to raise another round of funding, and the effort appears to have failed, up to this point.

iPhone line New York Apple Store

Waiting in line for an iPhone...

T-Mobile and Verizon Might Get Slammed Today

According to an unscientific poll of people in line in New York to get their hands on an iPhone, 40 percent currently are at&t subscribers. That means 60 percent of the buyers will be switching carriers to join at&t. It appears T-Mobile is the largest loser, but Verizon stands to lose nearly as much. About 25 percent of the people in line are T-Mobile customers, just about 23 percent Verizon Wireless. Sprint users number about 10 percent, according to CNBC. One wonders what sort of win-back offers are ready to roll. And, in this case, whether anybody would even consider a win-back offer.

Why Do People Text Each Other?

In many markets, the cost of doing so is far less than the cost of making a voice call, says LirneAsia. And it is the relative cost of SMS compared to a minute of voice, for example, which drives texting, more than the absolute cost of sending an SMS (See Brough Turner's blog).

"What matters really is the relative cost of sending an SMS; for instance, in the Philippines, for a Smart TnT prepaid mobile user, a one minute call is about 5.5 times more expensive. In Pakistan, for a Jazz Budget prepaid mobile user, the ratio is about 2.1. In India, where SMS use at the BOP was seen to be the lowest (among the countries studied), the ratio was 1 – i.e, a one minute call and an SMS are the same price (so why would you bother SMSing if that were the case?)."

Microsoft OCS: Not Everyone Will Rest Easy...

...despite repeated assurances from Microsoft that it just wants to supply unified communications and presense features to any existing business phone system. Microsoft unified communications manager Mark Deakin says Office Communications Server 2007 is not a replacement for current PBX services. And he's right, as far as it goes. It's just that some observers say they have tested OCS as a full replacement for a PBX and it seems to do the job. And now that Microsoft is supplying U.C. software, desktop software and actual phones.......

It doesn't get any easier than this...

MINO Wireless has done one heck of a job in the user interface area. MINO provides a downloaded application running on BlackBerries that routes international calls on MINO's network rather than the mobile provider's network. If you make international calls on your mobile, you know what that tends to cost. As a rule, applications requiring a client download don't do as well as apps that don't require a download. I'd have to say this was the smoothest download I've ever encountered for my BlackBerry. The client is pushed out without user involvement and then installs with about two clicks, as I recall. I'd say it was as painless as anything I've encountered yet. The "use MINO" prompt appears whenever I open the directory to make a call, and offers two options: bill the enterprise account or use my personal account. That's it.

I earlier had downloaded and installed another application that provides the same functionality. But I'd have to say the user interface was much more opaque. Confusing, in fact. That application hasn't been used (which is why I once or twice have gotten emails reminding me that I can use the app). User interface is REALLY important. MINO Wireless has done a great job.

Making Sense of Mid-Band Ethernet

For the last couple of years we all have been hearing lots about mid-band Ethernet (2 Mbps up to possibly 24 Mbps, with the arguable sweet spot between 2 and 6 Mbps). Suppliers have made special note of the cellular network backhaul opportunity and that frankly has puzzled me a bit, since that particular market segment isn't bigger than the broader metro Ethernet market including enterprises, small and mid-sized businesses and organizations. But Hatteras Network VP Gary Bolton has an answer for that.

The backhaul segment isn't bigger than the others, but it is more urgent for mobile providers as well as the transport providers who provide service with service level agreements, Bolton says. On the mobile side, 3G networks immediately create new bandwidth needs that T1 links aren't well equipped to handle. That's pretty immediate.

Then there are the service providers who sell mobile tower sites connectivity services. And there's urgency there as well. If a circuit goes down, all the timing information at the affected tower can be lost, and then there is the resync time. Mobile carriers hate that.

That typically results in a financial penalty on the transport provider. So the tower backhaul opportunity gets so much attention because both mobile and wireline network providers need a solution right now.

Enterprise software buying influences changing...

Enterprise buying influences are changing, and it is the "line of business" decision makers who are more influential now, says Kneko Burney, Compass Intelligence president. "New purchases generally come at the request of the LOB dimension," she says. In fact, this is where "the money really sits." So don't wait for IT to recommend a solution. Software providers have to create demand by the line of business units.

The other thing is that end users are getting more influential as well, she says. The "voice of the end user gets louder each year and is a force of influence that could be better leveraged in marketing strategies," says Burney. End users don't care about price or platform. They do care about ease of use and "coolness."

And what about IT executives? Burney says they primarily are reactive rather than proactive. So don't bother telling them about the strategic advantages. They need to solve problems at a very tactical level.

Microsoft OCS Launch

The name “Microsoft” is not top of mind whenever one thinks of suppliers of enterprise phone systems. But Microsoft hopes that will change in a big way. Microsoft unveiled its own IP phones in May, and is preparing for a major launch of Office Communications Server, the latest revision to Live Communications Server.

Not be alarmist, but “road kill” comes to mind as one surveys the existing line up of providers of business phone systems. Heck, it has to. As Cisco before it came essentially out of nowhere to claim a lead position in the enterprise phone systems market, so now Microsoft is about to make its move as well.

To be sure, Microsoft is “playing nice” for the next two years, designing its new line of phones to work with existing private branch exchanges. Inevitably, Microsoft will go further. That is what Office Communications Server 2007 and Office Communicator 2007 are about, after all: the full integration of desktop and other enterprise apps with unified messaging and communications in a Microsoft framework, as the Wainhouse Research illustration shows.

“Microsoft’s plan is a 10 to 15 year view of the market, which is only starting to be visible today,” says Alec Saunders, Iotum CEO and former Windows CE executive. “Taken in totality, it’s a plan to dominate every aspect of enterprise communications, with the exception, perhaps, of the carrier network.” And even there, Microsoft would like to have its software embedded.

As Saunders puts it, every provider in the enterprise voice space now has to have an answer for OCS; some strategy for surviving Microsoft's charge.

Doesn't Qualify as a Headset

So we won't be sumbitting this to Jajah's "ditch your headset" contest. Besides, my granddaughter wouldn't want the Jajah T-shirt in any case. It would have to be pink, and illustrated with horses. My wife wouldn't be caught dead wearing a headset, it goes almost without saying. If I really want to know whether some new innovation is thoroughly mass market, she's the market sample. She wouldn't intentionally use VoIP; doesn't use instant messaging or SMS, either. Will not check email at home after work, for any reason. Does think the iPhone is worth owning. That's significant.

Jajah Attacks Headset Metaphor

Jajah is running a "dump your headset" contest. Users send in photos and videos and win prizes. It's an entertaining and interesting way to dramatize the difference between Jajah's approach to web-enabled calling and Skype's. Jajah is IP-enabled callback, using any telephone or device a user chooses. Skype remains a PC-initiated experience. Hence the "attack" on headsets.

Web 2.0 Enterprises

I wouldn't say many small or mid-sized businesses or entities are adopting tools such as wikis, blogs and the like, but it appears lots of enterprises have figured out they are quite helpful. At least that's what one IDG survey finds. Nor would I venture so far as to say the generally more collaborative world we seem to be moving towards is transforming older hierachical and closed modes of organizing enterprises. But something is happening. And it ultimately doesn't matter whether a transformation creates the new tools that are needed, or the existence of the tools foment a transformation in the ways things are done. Either way, more collaboration results.

It's a trade show, after all...

...so some snafus are to be expected. That worried look on Seamus Hourihan, Acme Packet SVP? He's got his presentations all queued up. But there's no overhead projection equipment in the room, and there is supposed to be. His panel ultimately proceeded without visual aids.

The subject was voice and application peering. As far as drivers, though quality is an issue, Derek Koecher, Qwest wholesale VoIP manager quipped that "price represents nine of the ten criteria for buying wholesale VoIP services." And, presumably also drives desire to peer.

The session was held at NxtComm, which was pretty quiet, though vendors put on a brave face about the quality of their meetings and booth traffic. Nothing like the old SuperComm. Of course, there's a huge current of weariness and dissatisfaction with just about all of the bigger trade shows IP executives have been attending (and I am being polite). People honestly are questioning why they keep coming. And if they are coming, lots of people are saying they won't be exhibiting. Clear signs of trouble for major telecom show producers...