Monday, October 8, 2007

Sprint Loses CEO; 337,000 Subs


Sprint Nextel says it expects to report a net loss of approximately 337,000 post-paid subscribers in the third quarter, and also announced the resignation of CEO Gary Forsee. Perhaps the company has spent too much time on the WiMAX network is hasn't yet built, and too little time stemming serious subscriber losses in the voice and third generation business it does have.

Help Us Figure Out What We Can Do with Wi-Fi: BT


To stimulate development of new applications using Wi-Fi hotspots, BT is running a contest with a £1000 prize for the best new Symbian-based mobile application. To enter the challenge, an application should make use of the device's Wi-Fi connection for some of its operation. Applications will be judged on the innovative use they make of Wi-Fi connectivity, how easy they are to use, and their commercial potential. There are smaller prizes for runners-up. The challenge is open from October 16 and the closing date for entries is January 16, 2008.

Vonage Settles with Sprint


Vonage has settled its Sprint Nextel Corp. patent infringement lawsuit for $80 million. As part of the settlement, all claims are resolved and Sprint has licensed to Vonage the Sprint portfolio of more than 100 patents covering the connection of calls between a regular telephone network and a packet-switched network such as the Internet.

The $80 million Vonage agreed to pay consists of $35 million for past use of the patents, $40 million for a fully paid future license, and $5 million in prepayment for services.

Vonage has maintained it has sufficient reserves to pay both the Verizon and Sprint Nextel patent infringement awards without long-term damage to its business model. There has been some speculation that the patent infringement damage awards would push Vonage over the edge into bankruptcy. The countervailing point of view has been that the patent disputes were a serious financial distraction but not alone capable of damaging Vonage's long-term prospects. More dangerous by far is the threat posed by cable providers bundling VoIP with video and broadband access services.

In that sense, EarthLink faces much the same problem. It has a reasonably-sized Internet access business that has to contend with triple play bundles as well, though EarthLink arguably has made better progress in creating a double play offering of broadband plus voice.

The settlement of the Sprint lawsuit is helpful primarily in removing a huge distraction and source of uncertainty.

Smartphones are Different; So are Users


If device choices are an accurate reflection of user preferences and behavior, there is a big different in use cases of BlackBerry and Palm devices. To wit, BlackBerry users seem quite fixated on business use, while Palm uses are much more likely to use their smartphones for managing details of their lives as consumers. Windows Mobile users also tend to use their smartphones more heavily in "personal" rather than "work" modes.

So personal considerations are more important factors in driving smartphone purchases and usage than you might suspect. Some 83 percent of consumers say they use their smartphones for personal reasons in some form or another. 71% of consumers tell researchers at Compete that they have a smartphone to stay organized in their personal life, while 46 percent say they use the devies to stay connected to work. Given that until now most smartphone makers have primarily focused on the business-user segment, these are surprising results, Compete researchers say.

Saturday, October 6, 2007

att Tilt: A Small Reason Sprint is in Trouble

A decade ago, Nextel was the star of the U.S. mobile industry, with way-above-average revenues per subscriber based on its business user base. Today, Sprint Nextel is struggling to find its way. We point out the introduction by at&t of the new Tilt phone as an example of why Sprint Nextel is faltering. It isn't the technical performance of the phone, though it is among the "smartest" of smart phones available, or the form factor or the industrial design, though some will appreciate it.

Of course, it hasn't helped that Sprint still is struggling to get the separate Nextel and Sprint networks and technologies to mesh. But it might be argued that Nextel's market success now is a large reason for Sprint's undoing. The reason is simply that the gravitation pull of Nextel's business customer base might have defocused Sprint on the consumer-lead dynamic of the mobile phone market.

As with so many other elements of technology adoption these days, innovation is seeping into the market, and into the fabric of business life, from the consumer segment. And one might argue that Verizon, at&t (Cingular)and T-Mobile have done a better job, of late, of tapping into that dynamic.

As phones and mobiles increasingly have become fashion items, Verizon and at&t have seemed better able to capture the spirit. Perhaps in some largely unconscious fashion Sprint executives relied too heavily on the "pin drop" quality of the network, rather than offering fashion-forward devices.

That isn't to ignore technical parameters of the user experience. But most users realize that every network has some limitations, largely negating the "our network is better" positioning. Sprint has had to integrate two completely different air interfaces, to be sure. You might think "data network" when you think of Sprint. You aren't nearly as likely to think "cool phones." And that increasingly is what is driving the market these days.

The Tilt is the first at&t-enabled Windows Mobile 6 smart phone, and features a slide-out QWERTY keypad design, a 3-megapixel camera, 3G data speeds from AT&T's UMTS/HSDPA network and global connectivity.

Designed by HTC, the AT&T Tilt features a 2.8-inch color screen that slides back to reveal a full QWERTY keyboard, then tilts up to position the screen perfectly for reading and creating e-mail, browsing, watching videos or playing games.

The Tilt supports Bluetooth 2.0, which allows for up to six Bluetooth devices to be wirelessly connected simultaneously to the device and also supports Bluetooth Stereo.

The Tilt also features the latest version of TeleNav GPS Navigator and address sharing, which allows users to share their current locations or the location of their favorite businesses with other mobile users. Business users also can use TeleNav Track, a mobile workforce management solution that includes GPS-enabled tracking, timesheets, wireless forms, navigation, job dispatching and bar code scanning.

The Tilt also operates in Japan and Korea, as well as in 135 countries using the GSM air interface.

Wi-Fi is built in. The Tilt also comes with the highest-resolution camera available on any at&t mobile phone (3 megapixels). The device also accommodates 4GB MicroSD flash memory cards and is capable of supporting up to 32GB MicroSD cards to expand storage for pictures, video, music and more.

The at&t version of the Tilt also will be the first Windows Mobile device in North America to include BlackBerry Connect version 4.0 software, which provides BlackBerry email service, security and device management for IT administrators and the benefit for users of wireless synchronization of email, calendar, contacts, task list and memo pad information.

BlackBerry Connect v4.0 supports push email for Microsoft Exchange, IBM Lotus Domino and Novell GroupWise through the BlackBerry Enterprise Server and personal email through the BlackBerry Internet Service.

Customers can also use the AT&T Tilt to access their personal email. Better than most devices, the Tilt bridges the business-focused BlackBerry segment with the media player personal device.

And that's the issue: people buy devices. The network and the plan just follow along.

Friday, October 5, 2007

Level 3 Provisioning Issues?


Level 3 Communications has made seven acquistions in the last 18 months, including Broadwing, part of the Savvis portfolio, TelCove, Looking Glass and ICG. Several of the buys related to its new content delivery network portfolio. But many of the sizable acquisitions are related to its core bandwidth business.

If you have been around the business long enough, you know what is happening in the back office. Disparate systems are running in parallel. Manual reports have to be built. Billing systems don't talk to each other. Inventory cannot be interrogated in real time. Provisioning backlogs are the inevitable result.

That is one possible reason Level 3 reported relatively light revenue and earnings growth in the most recent quarter. Demand for its services isn't the problem. If anything, in light of the back office issues, demand possibly is outstripping provisioning.

Any company would have at least some issues getting new customers provisioned efficiently were it to digest as many acquisitions as Level 3 has made recently. So we would not be surprised if the company is having issues getting the new customers onto the network.

In fact, it probably is safe to say that bandwidth in service has grown at an unprecedented level over the last year. If one looks at total in-service bandwidth provisioned by Level 3 in its entire history up to about 12 months ago, the amount of bandwidth in service probably has doubled again in the last 12 months.

That rate of growth would cause issues for any service provider. So we wouldn't be surprised if there was some hiccup in provisioning new orders. In fact, the backlog could be great enough that three months might have to pass before the provisioning teams can catch up. Level 3 wouldn't be the first company to have problems with too much success.

Thursday, October 4, 2007

BT Tries to Differentiate its Access

One way to differentiate what might otherwise be a fairly ordinary broadband access service is to extend access from a "one site" service to a "hundreds of thousands of sites" service.

And that's what BT hopes will happen as it capitalizes on an exclusive deal with Fon to create a huge new network of hotspots in the U.K., based on three million BT broadband access accounts. BT had been headed in that direction anyway with its Openzone program. The BT Fon effort accelerates the WiFi footprint within the U.K., and also offers connections abroad.

Greater density also makes possible more ubiquitous dual-mode mobile phone usage: which is part of why the Wi-Fi initiative made sense in the first place.

Level 3 Attacks CDN Pricing

Level 3 Communications has been gearing up for a major assault on the content delivery networks business and appears ready to price such services at a rate that basically offers caching and downloading services for no more than the cost of buying IP transport. If, as expected, Level 3 prices content delivery at the same price as Ip transit, it could disrupt much of the market.

It isn't so much the disruption of profit margins: that already is happening as several dozen contestants now are slugging it out for some share of the growing market.

The bigger issue is how participants in the media, hosted applications and enterprise end user markets are able to change the way they do things if enhanced quality becomes an integral part of the IP transport they buy.

Level 3 hopes to have its streaming services ready by mid-November. At that point it will have a wider shot at disrupting the market for transport of real time services. Right now much of the market is focused on video content. But there are other real time applications and services that really would benefit from lower-priced and more capable delivery over networks that eliminate jitter and latency over the global wide area network.

Access networks on each end still are issues, but tail circuits also keep improving. As more applications move to "cloud-based" processing and storage, they will have to start having the "feel" of local desktop apps. CDNs will be part of that experience. And that's where the major impact will lie.

Broadband costs: Fiber Helps!

Fiber to the home helps, obviously. In the U.S. market, it helps to be a Verizon customer where FiOS is deployed, or to live within the SureWest Communications footprint. Make a note, though: this is actually a megabit per second (Mbps) metric, not a Mbyte metric. Apparently we are dealing with a technologically challenged journalist. The original data from the foundation make clear that we are talking about Mbps, not Mbytes.

Free BlackBerry Collaboration Tool for Small Groups


Telefónica and Research In Motion are introducing BlackBerry Unite!, a free PC-based software offering that will allow small groups, such as a family or small office, to stay connected and enhance communications and coordination. It's a combination of collaboration and remote PC access tools.

In addition to providing wireless email and web browsing, BlackBerry Unite! software will provide groups of up to five users with mobile access to shared calendars, pictures, music, documents and other desktop content.

The software provides five supported email accounts per user, with shared contact lists and Web browsing. Members of each user group can check each others’ availability, set up or modify appointments and send reminders.

Users can remotely download pictures, music, documents and other content on their desktop PC directly from their BlackBerry. Users also can share photos and files with other group members directly from their BlackBerries.

Users can remotely erase information on a lost or stolen handset as well. Contacts, pictures and other data on the BlackBerry can be backed up automatically over the air (via a cellular or Wi-Fi® network) to the desktop PC as well.

The BlackBerry Unite! software will be provided as a free download and, with the help of an easy-to-follow setup wizard, can be installed in minutes on a desktop PC, RIM says.

It's very cool. Not every company, and certainly not consumers, can afford to buy, set up and maintain their own BlackBerry enterprise servers. One can only hope the software will be made widely available in North America as well.

iPod Touch: Optimized for Video and Web


The newly released iPod touch is for all intents and purposes an iPhone with reduced functionality. The iPod Touch skips Bluetooth, phone capabilities, a camera and has a lower quoted battery life.

It has more storage than the iPhone though, which tops out at 8 Gbytes. The Touch is available in 8 Gbyte and 16 GByte versions, whereas the iPhone is only available in 8GB capacities. Other than that, the iPhone and Touch are identical. 802.11b/g Wi-Fi is available on both devices.

The Touch uses the same interface as the iPhone as well, but the Touch is shorter and thinner. Brilliant people, those marketers at Apple. They are creating a family of products each optimized for a different use case. The iPhone is the most capable phone. The Nano is a cheaper video player. The iPod has the most memory if you a music player.
The iPod also has dedicated volume control buttons; Touch doesn't.

The Web browser on the Touch probably is a major positioning feature. Lots of users will focus on using Wi-Fi to download music. Personally, I see it more as a Web browsing platform. Email access is not something you'd really want to do on a Touch. That's a better experience on an iPhone but arguably not as good as an iPhone as on a BlackBerry.

To prevent people from confusing a Touch with an iPhone, Touch has no audio input jacks or Bluetooth, so you really can't use a microphone. It definitely is not a phone.

So the issue is what people will make of it. It's a better Web browser and video player than a music player. The iPod is a better music player. The video-capable Nano is a cheaper music and video player. The iPhone is the only phone. The Shuffle is a better device for running and exercising because of its non-existent footprint. Unless you need to keep stats on your training progress, in which case the Nano works with some Nike shoes to collect data for you.

The net result is that lots of users will wind up owning multiple Apple products, while Apple covers the whole range of price points for devices that all are mobile music players. Clever, those marketers at Apple.

All of this is interesting for other reasons as well. One wonders how long it will be until data-optimized, communicating mobile devices might develop as a distinct niche: optimized for Web applications primarily, though capable of handling email and voice. Would such a niche necessarily require full-time mobile access? Or is there room for use cases based on Wi-Fi connection as a primary access method? Perhaps dual mode capable, but without the recurring monthly post-paid fees? Perhaps prepaid mobile access as a supplement to Wi-Fi as the primary access? Using WiMAX perhaps?

The new use case would be based partly on the characteristics of the device, partly on the nature of the access, partly on the user payment model and partly on the provider business model.

BT Joins Fon


BT has decided that Fon, the global user-built Wi-Fi network, really is complementary to telco networks, and has joined the FON community, creating a new service known as BT Fon. U.S. cable operator Time Warner Cable also has done so. The value proposition might be pitched as "free Wi-Fi access when you roam if you buy our broadband."

The result is that now millions of BT broadband subscribers can automatically opt-in to the BT Fon community, potentially expanding the footprint where BT customers can get connected.

Fon users who are not BT broadband customers will not automatically get free access to the commercial BT Openzone hotspots and Wireless Cities hotzones and hotspot network serving 12 cities at the moment. They will get access at reduced fees, however. Access to BT Fon user Wi-Fi zones will be reciprocal.

And BT is putting its money where its mouth is, becoming a shareholder and partner in Fon. So Fon now is part of BT’s strategy to provide wireless broadband not just inside the home, but outside as well.

Neuf Cegetel in France also has joined the Fon community.

The deal also means that users of BT Fusion dual-mode handsets will be able to use those devices in far more locations around the world than had previously been possible. FON also has a software client that can be used on Nokia's Wi-Fi-enabled Nseries handsets.

BT Fon has the potential to dramatically increase the size of the global Fon network, as BT has more than three million consumer broadband customers who are free to opt in to the program. By way of contrast, Fon's global network now stands at 190,000 hotspots.

The Fon router sets up a secure channel of 512 kbps that is available to other Fon users.

Wednesday, October 3, 2007

"Google Me"; "Skype Me"


No matter what financial pundits say about EBay's purchase of Skype, Skype has had enormous impact. As "Google" now is a verb, as in "Google it," so is "Skype" as in "Skype me." Assets can trade one way or the other. But "assets" aren't the same thing as "significance" or "value" to people. Skype is hugely valuable to users. No matter how you want to quantify the matter--10 million concurrent peak users or 200 million downloads--that's a huge user base. More important, Skype is part of the fabric of daily life for millions of people, as is Google. We may agree that EBay overpaid for Skype. That has almost nothing to do with the social significance of Skype. That's huge.

HTC Touch: On the Cusp of Something Big

Something big is going on in the handset market, which appears to be developing clearer customer niches as device capabilities start to diverge. But the big thing isn't simply the handset proliferation. The proliferation of devices is creating lots of niches, and also showing why mobile is such a powerful way to do voice.

It isn't simply mobility. It is the ability to create human affinities for communications services never possible before. Marketers talk about "branding" their companies and services to create an image of quality, reliability, dependability, fun or some other attribute. But who really believes them?

Most consumers seem to regard every mobile provider as a functional substitute for some other provider. Ford or Chevy. There are brands. It simply isn't clear that the brands mean much.

But consider perfume. Perfume is so personal that the branding is everything, the actual fragrances like operating systems. Perfumes also are ultimately personal. A person doesn't buy a different perfume because it is on sale. And on what logical basis would any fragrance be "better" than another?

Of course, that's not the point. It isn't about "better." It is about "me." The whole point of perfume marketing is to create an indelible sense that a fragrance is the personification of "me." That's sticky. That's loyalty. That's the complete antithesis of a commodity.

Wireline service is nearly impossible to personalize. But wireless service is nearly infinitely capable of segmentation, personalization and creation of niches because the handsets personify the service. This is a very big deal.

But back to HTC. It isn't clear yet whether the touchscreen interface itself will become into an actual niche, but that feature certainly is associated at the moment with devices we might say are "fashion phones." And there are two devices clearly in that category using touchscreen technology: the iPhone and the HTC Touch.

As iPhone sets records for sales of the first million units of a new handset, Taiwanese phone maker HTC says it has sold approximately 800,000 units of its Touch smartphone as well, over just about the same timeframe. While not yet available in North America, the Touch features the same sort of touchscreen interface used by the iPhone.

Both the Apple and HTC Touches have touchscreens, Wi-Fi and media playback.

HTC has already announced a successor to the Touch, the Touch DUAL, a phone that adds 3G broadband and a slide-out keypad, borrowing concepts from Research in Motion's BlackBerry devices. It should launch in Europe later this month.

Originally an equipment maker for carriers and other handset vendors, HTC in the last two years has embarked on a major campaign to sell its own branded phones. The company specializes in innovatively designed handsets and mobile computers, many of them aimed at the enterprise market.

Like most HTC devices, the HTC Touch and the Touch Dual use the Microsoft Windows Mobile operating system.

The company also has launched three other devices: a 3G version of the ultramobile Shift computer that runs on Windows Vista; the P6500, designed for tough environments such as hospitals and police forces; and the S730, an update to its popular S710 phone that like its predecessor includes a slide-out qwerty keyboard in addition to a traditional mobile-phone keypad.

Even the "fashion" segment is going to evolve. Verizon is rolling out devices aimed at the more price conscious end of the fashion segment, especially where what is really needed is voice and text, without heavy Web, media player or email support.

As it seems to be turning out, though mobile phone "service" might be something of a commodity, the handset experience is anything but, and getting richer all the time. That essentially means mobile service is the closest communications equivalent to "perfume," clothing, music and other human products that have very high and very personal human meaning.

Tuesday, October 2, 2007

Verizon Shows its Hand: Four New Phones


We will start to see what Verizon ihas been thinking as it reportedly turned down the iPhone and the rumored GPhone as well. There are business model issues to consider, of course. But there also has been speculation that Verizon had something in mind to satisfy the iPhone segment of the market.

Perhaps we will start getting our answers soon, as Verizon has introduced four new phones with high visual appeal, built by Samsung, Research in Motion and Lucky Goldstar.

The new Samsung Juke, BlackBerry Pearl, LG Venus and LG Voyager are being launched simultaneously. That's sort of like responding to a cannon shot with a salvo.

The "Juke," Verizon's name for the Samsung U470 and reportedly features 2 GBytes of storage, A2DP Bluetooth and a 1.3 megapixel camera. The Juke will be sold exclusively by Verizon Wireless and will be available in blue, red and teal at launch.

BlackBerry will contribute a new Pearl model with a 2 megapixel camera, A2DP and a 3.5mm audio jack. Tinted silver, a color exclusive to Verizon Wireless, the BlackBerry Pearl 8130 has built-in GPS.

The dual screen "Venus" slider by LG features a miniSD expansion card slot, A2DP, a 2 megapixel camera and touchscreen capabilities, including vibration feedback. Available in both black and pink, it features one screen with vibration feedback. It also offers a microSD memory port that accommodates up to 8 GB of expandable memory.

The LG Voyager features a large external touchscreen and a QWERTY keyboard, plus a second screen. Verizon says the phone will feature a full HTML browser, microSD expansion card, 2 megapixel camera, A2DP and built-in stereo speakers. The Voyager will be available exclusively from Verizon Wireless. There is a removable microSD memory slot that holds up to 8 GB of memory.

Juke, an ultra-narrow phone that comes in three colors and is shaped like a chocolate bar, is said to be aimed at fashion-conscious users who don't need heavy email or Web surfing. Voyager most nearly squares up with the iPhone, but also appears better suited for heavy email and text usage. The new Pearl appears aimed at work users who want to carry the same device with them in their roles as consumers.

Verizon Wireless has not given exact pricing beyond saying each phone would target a different segment and range from under $100 to about $400.

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