New BlackBerry Consumer Phone

MultiMedia Intelligence projects worldwide unit shipments of multimedia feature-rich mobile phones will exceed 300 million units in 2008, outnumbering shipments of TV sets.

Multimedia phones have at least 1 megapixal image capture, MP3 audio, video playback, Java, USB, Bluetooth, 16-bit screen color, QVGA resolution, WAP and MMS. Revenue from these handsets will be over $76 billion.

Numbers that large are a reason why Research in Motion will be launching new consumer-focused devices in the first quarter next year. The 9000 series is described by Carmi Levy, an analyst at AR Communications Inc. , as "the future of the BlackBerry franchise," a complete breakaway from the device's business roots. Instead, the new series targets the consumer space served by the Pearl and Curve models.

"The 9000 is supposed to be a touch-screen device, very similar in form factor to the iPhone," Levy says. "Which means that it is not an enterprise-friendly device."

The 9000 series will break from the traditional half-screen, half-keyboard look of the BlackBerry. The handsets will also incorporate an upgraded multimedia system, along with the standard push email capabilities.

Levy speculates that RIM will introduce the 9000 series in the first quarter of next year.

Among the updates will be "a Curve with WiFi," according to Levy. These devices may have other updates like GPS location tracking and higher resolution on-board cameras as well.

GDrive: Cloud Computing

Google apprears to be prepping a storage service that would let users store online essentially all of the files they might keep on their local hard drives, according to reporting by the Wall Street Journal. Users would gain mobility, remote backup and simple Web access to their information from virtually any broadband-connected device.

For Google, getting people to store data online makes it easier to get them to use productivity and other applications online. The possibly unanticipated impact is that enterprise computing architectures might change in this direction as well, as improbable as that may seem.

Cloud-based computing arguably is easier to manage and better adapted for supporting remote, traveling and dispersed workers, which is more the case every day.

Google is trying to let users upload and access files directly from their PC desktops and have the file storage behave for consumers more like another hard drive that is handy at all times, say the people familiar with the matter.

Of course, one limitation of such an Internet-based storage service is offline access.

Google is hoping the new storage service will help tie together some of its other services through a single search box, allowing a single search by keywords to find privately stored files, regardless of whether they're accessed through Picasa, Docs or a software program running on the user's computer.

Google appears to be moving toward being able to "store 100% of user data."

Test Confirms: Vista is a Slug Compared to XP

Windows XP Service Pack 3, the update scheduled to release next year, runs Microsoft Corp.'s Office suite 10 percent faster than XP SP2, Devil Mountain Software, a performance testing software company says. That's not the biggest news.

According to Devil Mountain, Windows XP SP3 is also considerably faster than Vista SP1. "None of this bodes well for Vista, which is now more than two times slower than the most current builds of its older sibling," company executives say.

EU Will Study Targeted Advetising: Much Hangs in the Balance

Targeted online advertising, an important revenue driver for all sorts of media and mobile services, is going to get serious regulatory scrutiny from European Union regulators next year, according to Astrid Wendlandt, Reuters reporter. At stake is the viability and robustness of media revenue models based on targeted messages, obviously key for Web sites such as Facebook, search providers, online media companies and mobile service providers alike.

The European Union's Article 29 Working Party already has ordered Google to curtail the amount of time it stores past Web searches to 18 months.

The EU's moves are a salient reminder that Internet services, especially media and content services and applications, increasingly are falling under the purview of regulators. Some have argued that Internet communications should be free of such rules. More important are regulations affecting content and media services. Historically, regulators have decided whether communications were legal, and under what terms. Now regulators essentially will be deciding what content and media forms are legal, and under what terms. One can argue that all regulators are doing is protecting privacy. It is more than that. Regulators also will be deciding "what" the basis of a new business can be; "who" can be a part of it and "how big" new media might become.

Skirmishes over "VoIP" will pale in comparison.

Massive Mobile VoIP Use by 2012

Who will massively introduce mobile VoIP? Mobile carriers themselves, says Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis president. In fact, some 250 million VoIP over mobile accounts will be in service by 2012, he argues. Analysts at Analysys seem to agree, arguing that wireless VoIP end users will outnumber wired VoIP users in the near future, as shown in the graphic.

Conversely, dual-mode mobile devices that work both on wireless networks and Wi-Fi will have been eclipsed, he argues. As for independent providers of VoIP over third generation mobile networks, get ready for something of the same thing that has happened to Vonage, he essentially argues.

In other words, as the mobile carriers increasingly move to provider VoIP as an alternative to legacy Time Division Multiplex services, it will increasingly be tough for independents to make a go of it, much as competition from cable has squeezed Vonage and other independents in the U.S. market.

Independents do have a window of opportunity, though, since the majors haven't yet moved.

Though some will find the analysis disturbing, Bubley's predictions fit well with the past history of technology innovations in the global telecom industry. That is to say, innovations at first are brought to market by upstarts. At some point, it becomes crucial for the majors to adopt, and they do.

Bubley's analysis rests on a couple of simple assumptions. Since mobile carriers are migrating to all-IP networks, voice necessarily will be in the form of VoIP. Either that, or keep running a parallel TDM voice network. The coming IP networks also will operate in more bandwidth-efficient mode than a circuit-switched network, possibly in the range of 100 percent to 200 percent, he argues. Given demands for more data bandwidth, that will be compelling.

Then there's the attraction of IP-enabled features not possible with TDM. Also, mobile providers will want to collapse multiple networks and switching fabrics. Just as wireline networks are moving to IP Multimedia Subsystems, so wireless operators, who initially were the impetus for the creation of IMS, will do so. And that means IP-based voice.

Unlocked German iPhone: 999 Euros

Deutsche Telekom, after being sued by Vodafone over availability of unlocked iPhones, will offer the device for 999 euros ($1,483) without requiring a two-year exclusive contract with its T-Mobile unit.

T-Mobile changed the rules after Vodafone won a court injunction that bans T-Mobile from selling the iPhone with contracts or the "SIM lock" that prevents the phone from working on another network.

Apple and Orange have the same issues in France.

gPC from Wal-Mart, Everex

Wal-Mart will sell a $200 Linux-powered desktop built by Everex and running Google applications. The Everex gPC runs Gmail, Google Docs & Spreadsheets, Google Calendar, Google Product Search, Google Blogger, Google YouTube, Google Maps, Google News, Meebo (instant messaging), GIMP (image editing), Firefox, Xing Movie Player, RhythmBox, Faqly, Facebook, Skype and OpenOffice.org 2.2.

The device is seen as an impulse buy. First-time users and grandparents, perhaps. Or, as will happen, as test platforms for people who already have full-featured PCs, but want to experiment with Linux apps and cloud computing. In some cases, people might just use it as a communications and Web apps platform.

Besides green, the “g” stands for the gOS, the Ubuntu 7.1 Linux desktop developed by an open source startup of the same name. “The gOS is an alternative operating system that makes it apparent that Google is your entire computing experience,” said gOS founder David Liu.

DT Channels BT: Will Others Follow?

Telcos have not in the past had much success as providers of enterprise system integration and management services. That may be changing as the business of system itnegration begins to look a lot more like advanced communications. BT has been forceful about transitioning in this way. Now Deutsche Telekom (DT) may make a bid to buy IT services giant EDS (EDS).

Telcos and mobile services providers are increasingly becoming IT providers, either directly or as integrators or aggregators of IT functions that they then deliver to their customers. Similarly, large software providers are moving towards "software as a service." And what is communications but "software as a service."

BT was ahead of the curve on this trend.

Vodafone Blocks T-Mobile iPhone Sales

Vodafone has obtained a restraining order in Germany against T-Mobile's exclusive deal to sell iPhones.

Europe has fair-competition laws that are designed to allow consumers choice. So Vodafone might be hoping its lawsuit will help it get its own rights to sell the iPhone. It wouldn't be the first time an iPhone deal has run into complications. In France, Apple has to supply unlocked iPhones, despite Apple's objections, because of a French law requiring carriers to offer unlocked as well as locked phones.

Jajah Direct Launches: no PC or Web Connection Needed

Jajah Direct, a new service from Jajah, now allows users to place global calls using any phone and local access numbers, without the use of a Web connection to set up the calls. The actual charges will vary based on carrier policies on "local" calls. If, for example, a caller can reach a "local" number charged as a "free" call, then the global calls are "free." In other cases the charge is the normal per-minute "domestic" call rate plus an international surcharge.


Users of Jajah Direct will dial a local Jajah access number in their city, and then dial the number they want to call. Jajah connects the user directly using VoIP. After the call, the caller will receive a unique local number for the contact, which can be stored for direct dialing.


Each user will get an unique local number for the particular contact. When the user dials the unique local number, the Jajah server compares this number with the data available in the server database to generate the number that the person wants to call, so long as the calls are placed within the Jajah local access market.


Jajah will initially offer the local number facility in ten U.S. cities. It also will offer the feature in London, Berlin, Rome and Tel Aviv. The company plans to add more local numbers in the next few weeks.

Google Buying Skype?

So the latest rumor is that Google is trying to buy Skype. While the move makes a certain sense, this might be a trial balloon of the sort often floated by investment bankers eager to get some deal fees.

Mobile Carriers Will Dominate VoIP

Who will massively introduce mobile VoIP? Mobile carriers themselves, says Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis president. In fact, some 250 million VoIP over mobile accounts will be in service by 2012, he argues. Conversely, dual-mode mobile devices that work both on wireless networks and Wi-Fi will have been eclipsed, he argues. As for independent providers of VoIP over third generation mobile networks, get ready for something of the same thing that has happened to Vonage, he essentially argues.

In other words, as the mobile carriers increasingly move to provider VoIP as an alternative to legacy Time Division Multiplex services, it will increasingly be tough for independents to make a go of it, much as competition from cable has squeezed Vonage and other independents in the U.S. market.

Independents don have a window of opportunity, though, since the majors haven't yet moved.

Though some will find the analysis disturbing, Bubley's predictions fit well with the past history of technology innovations in the global telecom industry. That is to say, innovations at first are brought to market by upstarts. At some point, it becomes crucial for the majors to adopt, and they do.

Bubley's analysis rests on a couple of simple assumptions. Since mobile carriers are migrating to all-IP networks, voice necessarily will be in the form of VoIP. Either that, or keep running a parallel TDM voice network. The coming IP networks also will operate in more bandwidth-efficient mode than a circuit-switched network, possibly in the range of 100 percent to 200 percent, he argues. Given demands for more data bandwidth, that will be compelling.

Then there's the attraction of IP-enabled features not possible with TDM. Also, mobile providers will want to collapse multiple networks and switching fabrics. Just as wireline networks are moving to IP Multimedia Subsystems, so wireless operators, who initially were the impetus for the creation of IMS, will do so. And that means IP-based voice.

Demand is Going to Grow for "Unconverged" Experiences

Maybe some of you already agree that "Swiss Army knife" mobile platforms have to make compromises. And one of the compromises is ease of use. There's just so much complexity a user can put up with before the alternative--a simpler device--starts to make sense. And we are getting there.

Sure, you have to carry multiple devices. But think about it: most of us already do that, and as nice as one device would be, choosing between a notebook and a mobile phone or email device is too tough a choice. I carry two or three communications devices everywhere, if on the move. And then an iPod Shuffle for music. For short periods of time I will make do with either an email device or a smart phone in the pocket. But the other devices are there.

If an airplane is involved; if I am going to be "out of town," two is the minimum number of devices, and I usually carry three. Yes, it is a hassle. But so is restriction to one device. So far at least, three is the irreducible number.

And there might be a consumer backlash coming even from the ranks of users who don't have to "run and gun" with heavy text entry. Universal McCann's European office has surveyed 10,000 Internet users in 21 countries and found that demand for a convergent device such as the iPhone is actually pretty low, at least in the U.K. market.

About 41 percent of the 500 Britons surveyed expressed an interest in owning a converged mobile handset, on par with France and South Korea. Interest in Japan, Taiwan, the U.S. market and Germany was even lower, with only 27 percent of Japanese respondents expressing an interest. Now, those are significant numbers for Apple, to be sure.

The interest was greatest in Mexico at 79 percent and similarly high in other developing markets, including Brazil and Malaysia at 72 percent and India at 70 percent. The point is that these are markets where the smart phone will be the PC. The irreducible number there is one.

In the U.K. market, most people already own a mobile phone and one or more of the devices that the iPhone could replace, with 24 percent of respondents owning five or more devices. For example, 82 percent of Britons own a mobile phone and 48 percent own an MP3 player, the research suggests.

There is demand for new services. Some 48 percent said they would like iPod video capabilities on their mobile phone.

About 43 percent said they wanted wireless Internet capability and 28 percent want audio-only iPod functionality.

Convergence is in many ways a compromise driven by financial limitations, not aspiration. In the markets where multiple devices are affordable, the vast majority would prefer that.

Up to a point, multiple features are important. It's a simple example, but the 5-megapixel camera on a Nokia N95 is way better than no camera or a 2-megapixel camera on a BlackBerry.

The point is that there is a limit to how much complexity and how many trade-offs a user is going to put up with to have "just one device."

And then there are the cultural issue. I think we are reaching a point where "always connected" has to be balanced. "Real," as opposed to "digital" life is going to start looking really attractive at some point. I think the move already has begun.

"Unconverged," indeed "not digital, not connected" pursuits are going to be seen as more interesting, as the pendulum starts to swing back. When "connected" starts to become a burden, people will "unconnect." When "convergence" starts to become too complex, with too many trade-offs, people will "uncoverge." Just watch.

What Google Wants

Confused about what Google really wants in the mobility space, and in particular what it wants from the 700 MHz spectrum auctions? The simple answer is that Google is for mobile what the Internet was to telecom service providers: an alternate communications medium whose value does not hinge on access, but on applications.

Wireless service providers will fight Google without quarter for the same reason they learned to loathe the Internet: it is difficult for them to extract revenue when value lies in applications not dependent on recurring payments for access.

That doesn't mean Verizon and at&t, in particular, won't try to make a business out of it. After all, despite the margins, despite the gross revenue implications, both are fierce competitors in the broadband access business. But the tack will be to stop it if possible, slow it where possible, but adapt if necessary.

But Google is not the only force pushing against the old order. iPhone, for example, seems to be the first of any number of approaches to thinking about what a mobile handset is, what an operating system is, what a platform is and where value can be extracted in the ecosystem.

As Skype and UK cellphone operator 3 reportedly are working on a new mobile handset that promises to "make Internet calls mobile," rumors continue to swirl about a possible Gphone or Google phone. Nokia is rolling out N95 series devices that also raise the question of where the leverage lies: operating system, user interface, handset, application or extended application ecosystem.

It’s an important question. Remember back when people seriously thought the browser would somehow translate into “ownership” of the user? That largely proved incorrect.

But operating system ownership has proven a more durable lock on value and customer ownership. Facebook might be showing the power of the platform. But the iPhone seems to suggest the power of the device itself. In short, getting the answer right might confer genuinely significant leverage in the mobile business.

Much of the impetus for thinking about such things comes on the heels of rumors about a Google phone, Google mobile operating system or mobile platform. While the thrusts are not mutually exclusive, the strategic approach Google takes conceivably could redefine much of the existing mobile business.

The difficulty of pinning down the likely thrust is difficult, as Google has to be working on a number of aspects, all at the same time. It must create a mobile interface to the Internet while supporting voice services not significantly inferior to those handsets offer today.

That means Google has to convert the Internet experience for the phone and create or enable a suite of related applications and applets that all work smoothly together and share data.

Then it has to create awareness of some mobile features users didn’t know they wanted, such as location-aware services and features.

All of that means an Internet-connected device supporting voice, instant messaging, Web browsing, search, document storage, retrieval and creation, email, storing and playing entertainment. The applications must blend “knowing you are available” to “knowing where you are.”

Google has to do all that and also make the PC and mobile experiences similar and intuitive. And after all that is done, has to create a business process for supporting all of that with an advertising revenue model.

Of course, Nokia, Apple, Microsoft and Samsung—among others—will try to do the same thing, at some point. Unless it can be done, Microsoft will have a tough time making 25 per cent of its revenues, or about $14 billion, from advertising in the relatively near future, as it says it will.

The issue, perhaps, is how many of these sorts of things have to be handled by the handset. How “skinny” can the device be and still provide a reasonable user experience?

And how much does an actual handset matter, if a widely-distributed reference model can be propagated? Still, as Apple has proved time and again, a tightly-coupled hardware and software approach can yield outsized results in the user experience area.

Many argue that Google will want to avoid getting entangled in the consumer electronics business. True enough. Others make the same argument about any possible plans to bid for its own spectrum.

But Google executives have said mobile offers Google the biggest possible opportunities. If that is true, stretching into unfamiliar areas might be the best way to dominate the new business.

It’s just an opinion, but an “operating system” approach offers the least risk but the least reward. Devices and the ecosystem are much more risky, but offer greater reward. And since Google is sure to encounter resistance from the established wireless carriers, owning its own network might be the only way to get rapid adoption.

So that’s what Google is up to: creating a mobile broadband version of the open Internet.

EarthLink Wants to Sell Municipal Wi-Fi Assets

EarthLink is considering "strategic alternatives" for its municipal Wi-Fi business, says Associated Press, a phrase that generally means it is for sale.

EarthLink originally had hoped it might be able to come up with a revised business plan that relied on additional investment by partners, including the municipalities that wanted the networks in the first place.

The company "decided that making significant further investments in this business could be inconsistent with our objective of maximizing shareholder value," says Rolla Huff, EarthLink CEO.