Verizon to Activate 25 to 30 LTE Markets in 2010

Verizon Communications CEO Ivan Seidenberg says his firm will begin deployment of its fourth-generation Long Term Evolution network "later this year with a few commercially-ready markets and will roll it out to 25 or 30 markets in 2010."

But the infrastructure only is "just one piece of the puzzle," he says. "It's the combination of devices, applications and network capabilities that will really cause this market to take off," Seidenberg says. "No single company will be able to envision, let alone provide, every aspect of this whole 4G ecosystem on its own."

That is a primary reason why the 4G business model will be different from what we have seen with 2G networks, with 3G being someplace in between. Where 2G was largely a vertically-integrated business, 3G has been more open, at least to the extent that broadband access to the Internet itself is an "open" environment.

The 4G model inevitably will be more of an "ecosystem" approach, in part because many applications are seen as "machine to machine," and in part because device and application openness will be much more central ways of creating new applications.

http://sev.prnewswire.com/telecommunications/20090401/NY9285501042009-1.html

Big Telcos Bluffing about Broadband Stimulus?

Some people think the "big telcos" are bluffing about refusing to apply for funds to be awarded under either of the programs authorized for "broadband stimulus" programs as part of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act.

There are concerns about strings attached to the grants, to be sure. But there are other, more practical issues that suggest many "big telcos" will be unable to apply, or will find the "strings" too onerous.

"Big" companies serving "urban" areas, or even rural areas within states where they also serve classic small and rural communities, are generally barred from getting Rural Utilities Service funds, and RUS is in charge of some of the funds. So "big companies" cannot apply for RUS funds.

Big companies might be able to apply for NTIA funds, if they get waivers. But the clear logic and language of the statute makes clear a preference for non-profits and government-related agencies as "eligible" applicants. That's why the language about "waivers" exists. "Big telcos" are seen as exceptions to the rules about eligible applicants.

You can make your own educated guesses about the likelihood of applications from "big companies" being funded, under those circumstances. "Big companies" aren't seen as the logical applicants, even if the final rules might allow them to bid. At this point, waivers seem to be necessary, in any event.

Aside from strings that also bother some U.S. governors about accepting funds authorized by other parts of ARRA, it is possible bigger telcos might just take a pass for those reasons alone. The statute is written in ways that make clear an intention to fund non-profits and projects that primarily create jobs (it is part of the "stimulus" bill, recall), and only secondarily create infrastructure.

There are lots of reasons for carriers to think they will not be allowed to apply for some of the funds, and are not the most-favored applicants for most of the funds.

http://blog.wired.com/business/2009/04/big-telcos-bluf.html

Is Cable's WiMAX Business Model Anything Like Wi-Fi?

Cable operators continue to have more questions about wireless services than they do about any other products delivered over their wired broadband plant. They should. Wireless would be the first service not delivered over networks they fully control, and which build relatively logically on what their existing networks offer, in terms of value.

Wireless wouldn't be the first service they've ever offered that must take share from other providers in a saturated market. Cable digital voice clearly has had to take share from incumbent telcos. But core video entertainment and cable modem services essentially were "green field" services that only had to grab attention, not steal market share.

Wireless voice and data are not businesses where cable has existing core competence, and a price "race to the bottom" is not where cable traditionally is most comfortable.

Everybody seems to think mobile video and content is where cable might leverage its formidable assets in a more-logical way. But no killer app yet has emerged.

Should that tack succeed, the business model for WiMAX might be along the lines of how Cablevision Systems Corp. positions it own metro Wi-Fi offerings. Essentially wireless access drives the value and profitability of cable modem service.

So if "cable modem services" provide the business model for providing free metro Wi-Fi, perhaps wired video entertainment will provide the ultimate business model for WiMAX.

Thinking About Absconding with a Netbook Under Contract?

LM Ericsson has developed a new modem, intended for use in netbooks sold at a discount by wireless providers, that will remotely disable the computer if a customer on a contract stops paying his or her bills. Of course, there are other applications as well. An enterprise information technology manager dealing with a stolen laptop could lock down data on the machine to ensure security.

Lenovo Group, which makes the enterprise-oriented IBM ThinkPad line of PCs, has said it will build this sort of feature into its laptops.

The new Ericsson modem also is said to have the ability to remain active even when a PC is turned off, perhaps listening for messages such as email or Skype calls.

http://tech.yahoo.com/news/ap/20090331/ap_on_hi_te/tec_techbit_laptop_modems

Opera for Virgin Mobile

Opera Software will be available on some Virgin Mobile USA handsets as part of a deal that makes Virgin Mobile USA a distributor of the mobile browser. Helio was the first U.S. carrier to sign a deal with Opera Mini in the United States.

Open Range to Bring WiMAX to 6 Million Rural Homes

For those of you who might be wondering, high-speed broadband in rural America is not in as dire straights as you might think. There's a problem, but it is being solved. Consider that estimates of rural un-served or underserved households range from six million to 10 million.

Then consider that just one company--Open Range Communications--has raised enough money to bring fourth-generation wireless to about six million U.S. households in rural U.S. areas. And construction is about to begin.

Level 3 Communications has announced an agreement with Open Range Communications, which intends to deliver wireless broadband using WiMAX to 500 rural communities in 17 states, reaching an audience of six million potential subscribers.

Open Range will leverage Level 3’s extended on-net services to offer high-speed Internet and voice services to millions of previously un-served or underserved communities across North America.

Open Range has gotten a $100 million investment by One Equity Partners, the private equity arm of JPMorgan Chase and a loan provided by the United States Department of Agriculture's Rural Development Utilities Program (RDUP) for $267 million.

Personally, I'd argue Open Range is going to build more broadband facilities, reaching more potential customers, than every single project funded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act ("broadband stimulus"). And for a lot less money.

U.S. Telecom Capex to Drop 7% in 2009

U.S. communications carrier capital spending will dip 7.3 percent in 2009, Yankee Group analysts now predict. That's less than the 10 percent figure some of us have speculated about, purely on a non-scientific “gut feeling” basis.

Actual declines will vary based on industry segment. Wireless investment is going to continue at healthier levels, as will broadband investments related to IPTV rollouts and broadband access generally. As you would predict, investments in legacy voice are going to be starved, by comparison.

Telecommunications carriers globally will chop about $12 billion from their capital budgets, decreasing their spending from $284 billion in 2008 to $272 billion in 2009.

Some observers will find that figure relatively heartening news, as it represents a bit more than a four percent dip, at least globally. And some regions and countries actually will increase spending, the Asia Pacific region in particular.

Globally, capex, as a percentage of revenue, will decline from 15.2 percent of revenues in 2008 to 14.1 percent in 2009.

U.S. IT Forecasts Revised: Down in 2009 (no surprise)

Gartner and Forrester have both lowered their expectations of U.S.technology spending this year.

Gartner now forecasts a 3.8 percent drop in spending worldwide to $3,200 billion, compared with the $3,400 billion recorded in 2008. Three months ago, it was predicting a modest rise in spend this year over last year. Gartner points out that the decline it now predicts is worse than the 2.1 percent fall in IT spending in 2001, after the dot-com bubble.

Gartner predicts a 15 percent decline in computer hardware shipments, a three percent fall in telecom spending, a two percent drop in IT services and 0.3 percent growth in software sales.

Forrester now expects information technology sales to shrink by 3.1 percent in 2009, compared with the 1.6 percent it previously suggested.

All analysts overshoot. We extrapolate from past trends, which generally works fine so long as markets are not at turning points. One can almost predict an overshoot to the down side at some point, as trends change again.

Ribbit Announces KillerApp Winners

Ribbit has announced the winners of its "KillerApps" challenge, a contest for developers of new applications using the Ribbit voice platform.

Lucid Viewer won the "Media, Advertising, Entertainment" category for its authoring tool that allows developers to create immersive experiences. The tool allows users to call up stores directly from a Flash interface, such as a three-dimensional view of a street in Rome, Italy. Lucid Viewer also won the Grand Prize in Ribbit's KillerApps contest.

Sugared Frog won the "Business" category, with an app that integrates SugarCRM's open source solution with Ribbit voice apps. Sugared Frog allows users to organize their voicemail, and dictate notes and memos right from their mobile phones.

Save A Life won the "Social Networking and Communication" prize by creating an Adobe AIR app that allows you to quickly reach a group of friends or community members by phone. Currently, the application focuses on blood donations, though the program could be used for other donation campaigns or emergency services as well.

CYHAA won the "Breakthrough" category. CYHAA, which stands for Control Your Home, Anytime, Anywhere allows users to control their smart home devices with their voice right from their phones.

Verizon and AT&T: No, Thank You, to Stimulus Funds

Verizon Communications Inc. and AT&T might very well pass on applying for any of the "broadband stimulus" programs, at least in part because of "strings" attached to the money.

Neither company is well placed to apply for the Rural Utilities Service portion of the funds targeted at rural areas, and access provisions might be unpalatable for the National Telecommunications & Information Administration grants. 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aXx.QVEa9vpM&refer=home

More Wireless Broadband Substitution Coming?

It is no idle speculation to consider that more users will look at wireless broadband substitution as downlink speeds rise into the 50 to 60 Mbps range in the near future. And Verizon might be thinking along those lines itself, though mobile providers without wired assets to cannibalize have been more aggressive, so far.

There is speculation Verizon will introduce such a router at CTIA this week.

http://www.phonearena.com/htmls/Verizons-MiFi-2200-is-your-own-personal-Hotspot-article-a_4570.html

Zer01 Plays the "Interconnecting Carrier" Angle

Some observers might wonder how the new mobile service created by Zer01 is different from existing applications that provide VoIP calling over a mobile handset. Recently, Skype for Apple iPhones has gotten lots of attention, for example.

“I do not really see any comparison to the Zer01 value add here,” says Mark Richards, Pervasip CIO. Pervasip provides the underlying network, billing and customer care for the Zer01 effort.

The Skype calling feature uses a Wi-Fi connection, not the AT&T data network, and can require per-minute calling charges, where Zer01 uses an IP wide area network and a GSM wireless network for access.

And Richards argues there is a difference between an downloaded application running on top of a mobile operating system, and a native application. “To run VoIP over GSM is stodgy,” Richards says. “It is not simple.”

One problem is that the downloaded app is always contending for processor resources. To run a VoIP path on top of the OS, rather than natively on the phone, compression and decompression is required, and that uses processor resources.

Calling gateways is more complex, so there is some kind of inconvenience, he argues. “I have not yet seen a seamless desktop process that really changes habits,” says Richards.

United Technologies Group has developed a mobile application that seamlessly sits on the cell phone and takes over a phone’s dial pad by replacing it with its own, Richards notes.

The other great confusion is over the business model. To date, many firms that do not own their own mobile networks have operated as mobile virtual network operators, leasing wireless capacity and services on a wholesale basis, and then selling at retail.

Those of you familiar with the “unbundled network element-provisioned” (UNE-P) model will see the similarity. An MVNO or UNE-P reseller essentially is engaging in price arbitrage.

The difference here is that Pervasip is a licensed carrier. It has the legal right of interconnection with other carriers. So Zer01 essentially and simply interconnects with GSM mobile providers around the world. It is not a reseller of their services.

Private Interests, Public Purposes

For every public purpose, there is a corresponding private interest.

http://arstechnica.com/telecom/news/2009/03/microsoft-broadband-stimulus-should-help-hospital-schools.ars

VoIP Revenue Will Grow 20% in 2009, IBISWorld Says

Telecommunications and internet related services are now so ingrained in the daily lives of businesses and consumers that they will hold up relatively well compared to other areas of the economy, say analysts at IBISWorld.

"One shining light will be VoIP, which competes on price against more established service providers," the firm says. "Consumer substitution from wired telecommunications to VoIP will accelerate but a weaker economy and lack of available finance will result in many smaller VoIP providers exiting the industry."

VOIP revenue is expected to grow 20.1 percent in 2009.

http://www.ibisworld.com/recession2009/default.aspx

Wireless Providers to Collaborate on Marketing "Best Practices"

The Mobile Marketing Association says the four largest U.S. wireless service providers--Verizon Wireless, AT&T, Sprint, and T-Mobile USA-- have agreed to coordinate their mobile marketing guidelines with the MMA’s "best practices" guidelines. This industry-first agreement is intened to produce a dramatic reduction in the costs of launching mobile marketing campaigns, faster time to market for campaigns and improved consumer satisfaction by improving the consistency and efficiency of mobile marketing campaigns across the four major U.S. wireless service providers.

In addition to the four largest U.S. wireless service providers, major aggregators, brands and content owners includingVeriSign, Neustar, Limbo, and Thumbplay are supporting the process.

The agreement is expected to enhance efficiencies in running short code programs, accelerate the time to market for mobile campaigns, ensure monitoring programs and audit results are more consistent and reduce operational costs across the mobile marketing ecosystem.

http://www.mmaglobal.com/news/mobile-marketing-association-brokers-industry’s-first-cross-carrier-best-practices-verizon-wire