Thursday, April 23, 2009

EU Caps International Text, Mobile Internet Access Rates

As expected, the European Union has mandated price caps for international text messages, Reuters reports. Charges will be capped at rates as much as 60 percent lower for travelers in the European Union. The caps take effect in July

Operators will be allowed to charge customers a maximum of 11 euro cents (14 U.S. cents) for each text message, excluding sales tax, compared with current prices of about 28 cents, when customers use their mobiles outside their home countries.

Buying a song using a mobile phone or using a laptop with a dongle or GSM card to access the Internet will cost a maximum of 1 euro per megabyte at the wholesale level, from about 1.68 euros today.

Price caps that were introduced in 2007 on roaming voice calls.

The rule has to be ratified by each member state.

Solar Isn't Necessarily "Green." Neither is Ethanol.

In the desert, where many think we should create solar factories, solar is anything but "green." And that's before one considers the impact on aquifers. If you live out west, and you have spent even a little time looking at the matter, you realize that water is the truly-scarce resource. 

"Wet-cooled parabolic trough systems require five acre feet of water per megawatt. The five plants planned for Amargosa Valley, Nevada, propose to generate from 150 to 1,000 megawatts, so we are looking at over 10 million gallons of water a year. This water is fossil water believed to be tens of thousands of years old, not recharged since the last ice age. Even if they buy out the private water rights, there still would not be enough to supply this massive use of water. Devil's Hole, Ash Meadows wetlands, and springs of Death Valley (all home to a great diversity of endemic pupfish) would be dried up."

If you look at the amount of water required to grow corn, to create ethanol, you face the same problem. Water is the scarce resource. There are other ways to create clean energy. 

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-pavlik15-2009feb15,0,7619561.story

Forget Job Growth: Rural Broadband Never Pays for Itself

Surprise, surprise: rural broadband does not automatically lead to measurable job growth or other economic benefits. That doesn't mean we shouldn't provide it. But it likely is not ever going to provide a financial return for the companies that install it.

Aside from that, assume $5,000 investment per home passed. Assume a 60-percent subscribe rate, at $50 a month retail prices. Assume a 30-percent profit margin on such accounts.

The per-subscriber cost of installing broadband is $8333.00. Recovery of the investment cost, without factoring in the cost of capital or time value of money is about 14 years. If one assumes the useful life of the plant is 20 years, a company never actually makes money on such investments.

AT&T Wireless-Broadband Bundles Show Strong Growth

Worth noting: AT&T CFO Rick Lindner says "our stand-alone DSL product which about 50 percent of the time is bundled with wireless has been very strong for us."

You might suspect there has been some recent promotional activity to encourage such behavior but that is not the case. "We haven’t been running any significant promotional activities I think in the last few quarters," Lindner says.

The implication: high-speed Internet access and wireless are the two foundation communications services.

E-Commerce Growth Falls off Cliff

The rate of growth for online products plummeted from 24 percent in early 2006 to nine percent in early 2008, while the rate of growth for products bought at retail locations dropped from nine to five percent over the same period.

One can think of lots of reasons why this might be the case. A more mature business grows more slowly.

There's less novelty effect. Perhaps it is just the impact of the recession, and more staples are bought at physical locations.

The issue is what happens after the recession ends. There's a line of thinking that with serious deleveraging happening throughout the economy, consumer spending will not return to its pre-recession level.

Off the top of my head, it's hard to see why this line of thinking is wrong, though it is worth noting that consumer behavior often surprises researchers.

Ad Priorities Radically Different Online

I estimate that direct response advertising accounts for about 80 percent of all ad dollars spent online, while in traditional media the situation is reversed," says Gian Fulgoni is chairman and co-founder of comScore. "There, branding dollars are estimated to make up about 75 percent of the market."

Why the disparity? "I believe that the very nature of the speed of the Internet and the young technical minds that first created online advertising both led to a focus on immediate response," he says. "The click metric is a good example of that."

“Time to purchase” is different for direct response ads, which aim at closing a sale or a transaction right here and now, and branding that builds brand equity that pays off over time.

Fulgoni thinks both are required. "For direct response ads to work well, it’s important that a brand’s equity have been communicated in advance of the consumer’s purchase decision," he says.

How do Internet media do brand building? "I believe it’s vital to take into account all of the marketing stimuli that affect consumer purchase behavior, not just that which occurred just prior to purchase."

"We should be wary of attributing 100 percent of the credit for a purchase to a click on a search ad," he says. Search might well have closed the deal, so to speak, but there is often a lot of other marketing activity that led the consumer down the path to purchase and, without which, closure might not have occurred.

The Atlas Institute, Microsoft Advertising’s research division, says “users exposed to both search and display ads convert at a higher rate: an average of 22 percent better than search alone."

http://www.comscore.com/blog/2009/04/branding_versus_direct_response.html

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Apple Sells 3.79 million iPhones in 2Q

Apple sold 3.79 million iPhones in its second quarter and 11 million iPods. No problem blowing past analyst revenue forecasts. Other smart phone manufacturers might be under pressure. Not Apple.

T-Mobile Ultimately will Allow Skype over 3G

Despite understanable teeth gnashing over T-Mobile's blocking of Skype when using the 3G network, T-Mobile ultimately will allow it, either because customer pressure forces them to do so, or because European Union regulators do so.

Cablevision Systems Corp. Introduces Mobile Portal

If you are looking for some idea of what a cable-centric wireless service might look like, consider what Cablevision Systems Corp. is doing. After putting into place an extensive metro Wi-Fi network, it is launching a  mobile version of its Optimum.net Web portal that's designed for all forms of cellular handsets but tailored for the company's 2.5 million cable modem subscribers.

The new mobile platform, accessible to handset browsers at m.optimum.net, is starting off with features including email, local traffic, weather, movie theater info, and access to Cablevision's digital TV lineup, but a remote DVR scheduler is on the roadmap.

Starbucks Gets 60% Redemption Rate for SMS Coupons

Starbucks Coffee Co. is running a loyalty program based on bar-code coupons stored on mobile phones, in Guadalajara and San Luis Potosi, Mexico and has gotten a 60-percent redemption rate.

Starbucks created postcards being handed out in malls, universities and retail outlets. Consumers to text the keyword STARBUCKS to short code 80080 to download a "buy-one-get-one-free" coupon.

Separately, customers can text the keyword VENTI to short code 80080 to receive various discounts and offers that change each time the coupon is scanned.


Glad the Term "Year of Mobile Marketing" Wasn't Used

Still, location is a powerful new capability for anybody with marketing or sales responsibilities. Who you are, what you like to do, and where you are, right now, are powerful attributes we ultimately will figure out how to use.

There's one clear historical footnote: everytime somebody declares any year "the year of...", it isn't.

http://www.adotas.com/2009/04/mobile-marketing-has-arrived-for-real-this-time-–-are-you-prepared/

More Personalized Services for Mobile

Personalized services for mobile customers will grow from $806 million to $2.9 billion in annual operator revenue by 2011, say researchers at ABI Research. Among top applications are real-time charging for multimedia content and mobile Internet services.

Up to this point it has been difficult for carriers to easily charge customers for non-voice, non-text  purchases such as music and video downloads. With an increasing introduction of real-time charging capabilities for these services, customers can do it by topping up their prepaid accounts or using a credit card.

Perhaps the greatest growth opportunity for personalized services comes from  “metered broadband”: the ability to access the Internet on an ad hoc basis, or to extend in real time the access bundled in a subscriber’s plan.

Other personalized services include customized Web browsing, parental controls, and enhanced control of text messaging which will enable users to block certain numbers, set some automated forwarding rules, and otherwise configure their SMS.

AT&T Results: No Negative Recession Impact

AT&T's first quarter 2009 results suggest it is not suffering from economy-induced customer budgetary caution. Its earnings per share were in line with its full-year outlook, the company gained 1.2 million net wireless subscribers to reach 78.2 million, ading 875,000 retail postpaid net adds, up 24.1 percent compared to the first quarter of 2008.

The company also posted its fifth consecutive quarter with a year-over-year increase in wireless postpaid subscriber average revenue per user, up 2.1 percent versus the year-earlier quarter to $59.21.

AT&T firther saw strong growth in its U-verse IPTV segment, adding 284,000 net customers, nearly double the company’s gain in the first quarter of 2008, to reach 1.3 million in service.

The company also posted a 471,000 net increase in total broadband connections, including wireline and wireless LaptopConnect cards, to reach 16.7 million in service.

Deutsche Telekom Issues Profit Warning

Deutsche Telekom AG has issued a profit warning which it blames on the economic slump, says Dow Jones newswire. Citing weak mobile operations in the United States., the United Kingdom and Poland, Deutsche Telekom says it now expects 2009 earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization to be two percent to four percent below 2008's level of EUR19.5 billion, while free cash flow is set to reach around EUR6.4 billion, down from EUR7 billion a year ago.

But Deutsche Telekom first-quarter revenue rose by around six percent to about EUR15.9 billion. Free cash flow was between EUR200 million and EUR300 million in the first quarter of 2009, compared with EUR1.6 billion in the same period last year, it said.

Deutsche Telekom said it had "felt the impact of the economic slowdown and the more intense competitive environment," particularly in the United States and United Kingdom., while roaming revenue fell as consumers cut back on travel.

The weak zloty in Poland and weak sterling in the U.K. also hurt revenue and adjusted EBITDA, the company says.

Some observers think "blaming the economy" is less relevant than operational shortcomings, currency effects, market share shifts and other issues, though.

In Poland, revenues are expected to take hit following a 26 percent decline in the value of the Polish zloty to the euro, says Emeka Obiodu, Ovum senior analyst. The U.K. pound also is down 21 percent compared to the euro.

Competition rather than the recession remains the major problem, says Obiodu. "Generally, the market dynamics have not changed much and competition remains fierce."

"In fact, we have yet to see any disastrous performance from a mobile operator that can be blamed solely on the economic crisis," Obiodu says." Indeed, for each of the recessionary factors cited by Deutsche Telekom for its profit warning (apart from currency risk), it is possible to show a corresponding non-recessionary force at play."

Roaming revenue is down. But the EU has mandated cuts in mobile roaming. In the UK, off the four main mobile operators in the market, T-Mobile’s organic revenue growth for each of the four quarters of 2008 was the lowest, says Obiodu.

In the United States, intense competition and the increased push for unlimited bundles is having a major impact on T-Mobile USA. There are other explanations for the quarterly results, in other words.

Blu-Ray Sales Double, Packaged Media Not Dead?

A new study from Adams Media Research shows that sales of Blu-ray discs in the first quarter of 2009 nearly doubled compared to the same period a year ago, rising to nearly 9 million from 4.8 million in the first quarter of 2008.

Netflix also seems to be growing, and is expected to have 11.2 million subscribers by the end of 2009, after hitting the 10-million subscriber mark for the first time in February 2009.

"Organized Religion" Arguably is the Cure, Not the Disease

Whether the “ Disunited States of America ” can be cured remains a question with no immediate answer.  But it is a serious question with eno...