Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Jeff Bezos Says iPad is a Different Product Category

One of the big questions about tablet devices such as Apple's iPad is whether it represents a new product category, as was the iPod, or whether it is the first product representing a new segment of the PC market. The answer matters greatly for hardware designers and marketers of PCs and e-book readers.

Jeff Bezos, Amazon CEO, clearly believes tablets are a new product category, separate from e-book readers and traditional PCs. That matters because, if correct, people are going to do different things with tablets than they do with other types of devices.

Apple might, or might not, agree. It appears the iPad already taken about 22 percent of the U.S. ebook content market, with downloads of five million books in the first 65 days of the iBooks store's existence.

" I think there are going to be a bunch of tablet-like devices," says Bezos. "It’s really a different product category."

Consumers Like Map Apps on Mobiles

About 14 percent of mobile subscribers visited a mapping site on their smartphone or mobile device in April 2010, according to comScore. That represents more than 33 million consumers logging on to the mobile web for mapping information.

Smartphone map access increased by more than 175 percent year over year, according to comScore.

Nearly nine million users accessed mobile maps via a smartphone browser, a 93 percent increase year over year, while about 13 million used a mobile app. Most of those users (87 percent) do so from their cars, with 17 percent of exercisers (while walking, jogging, biking) also connecting to maps from their smartphones. Nearly 17 percent of public transit users also used mobile maps.

Monday, June 28, 2010

What are Advertisers Planning for iAd?

Campbell Soup is preparing at least one game for its iAd campaign. It's testing an idea to allow users to physically "shake" the salt out of different soups and see the results.

Mobile TV Revenue Still Modest

Mobile TV revenues will reach about $2.5 billion, and should reach closer to $3 billion in 2011, according to ABI Research.

In 2012, worldwide mobile TV revenues will approach $7 billion, exceeding $10 billion in 2013 and $15 billion in 2014 before reaching $20 billion in 2015.

Recent data from The Nielsen Company indicates the average amount of time U.S. mobile subscribers spent viewing video on a mobile phone per month was about three hours and 37 minutes.

Mobile Growth Shifts to Content

Mobile revenue growth now is shifting to mobile broadband and data, as you would expect, with the saturation of basic voice connections.

The next wave of growth will come from commerce and content sales, PricewaterhouseCoopers now predicts.

More than 55 Million Smartphone Shipments in the First Quarter of 2010

More than 55 million smartphones shipped during the first quarter of 2010, according to ABI Research. That's about a million fewer than were sold in the fourth quarter of 2009, a seasonally strong period for phone sales.

Much of the fastest growth is being seen in markets previously little penetrated by expensive, cutting-edge smartphones, suggesting that less-expensive smartphones will represent a larger share of new sales.

U.S. Wireless Spectrum to Double?

The amount of wireless spectrum available in the United States would nearly double over the next 10 years as the federal government prepares to gradually auction 500 megahertz of federal and commercial spectrum.

In past decades, new spectrum auctions have been the foundation for potential assaults on industry structure, allowing new contestants to enter the market. Whether that will be the case in the forthcoming auctions remains to be seen.

Clearwire and Sprint have plenty of spectrum, while AT&T and Verizon Wireless are launching new Long Term Evolution networks that are far more spectrally efficient than the third generation networks they will supplement and then replace.

T-Mobile USA needs more 4G spectrum, but probably cannot afford to buy new licenses. The issue is whether any truly-new contestants are willing to take a chance on disrupting the business.

Samsung Galaxy S to Debut On All 4 Big Carriers

Samsung's flagship Google Android smartphone, Galaxy S, will be available on the AT&T, Sprint, T-Mobileand Verizon Wireless networks.

The Samsung Galaxy S will be called the Samsung Fascinate on Verizon, Samsung Captivate on AT&T, Samsung Vibrant on T-Mobile, and Samsung Epic 4G on Sprint.

Is Apple an Annuity Business?
































Is Apple in the annuity business? You might draw that conclusion from the results of a survey of Apple iPhone 4 buyers, given that 77 percent already were iPhone uses, and 84 percent already were on the AT&T network. The caveat is that anybody buying a new device on the first couple of days is a "fan," almost by definition.

Should Nokia Abandon 90% of its Market?

One way you might read this is that Nokia needs to get "more social with its fans." The other way is that 90 percent of younger users are not fans. There are hazards either way. "Abandon" might be too strong a way of putting matters, but it is the obvious inverse of a strategy focused on the 10 percent of fans. 


Easy to Use Web Browser Impact

By now it is abundantly clear that smartphones with easy-to-use browsers encourage people to use the web when mobile.

To the extent that Symbian and Research in Motion devices have been harder to use, their web usage shows the impact of the barrier, while Apple and Android devices indicate what happens when the barrier is removed.

Some will say this poses a potential problem for mobile service providers. But there is one problem worse than dramatically increased data demand: insufficient demand.

Friday, June 25, 2010

World Cup Sets an Online Video Record

ESPN says 1.1 million people watched at least some of the USA-Algeria World Cup match. One suspects that is largely because the match was aired from 10 a.m. to noon EDT, during working hours for most of the United States.

One wonders what the impact was on enterprise Internet connections and local area networks.

Debt Now is THE Economic Problem

The debt-financed model has reached its limit, says the Economist. Most of the options for dealing with the debt overhang are unpalatable, but each government will have to find its own way of reducing the burden.

The battle between borrowers and creditors may be the defining struggle of the next generation. If you have children or grandchildren, this is why "debt" suddenly has exploded as a major political issue in all developed economies, though it typically has been a "snoozer" of a voter issue.

Net Neutrality is a Fight Over Ecosystem Revenue Share

The net neutrality debate is, at its heart, an argument about the distribution of future revenues in the broadband ecosystem. Sure, there are technical issues, such as how best to manage scarcity of bandwidth at times of congestion.

And there are legitimate concerns about potential anti-competitive behavior.

But at its heart the arguments are about gaining the best positioning with the new ecosystem. Were it not for mobile services, communication service providers would be in big financial trouble.

Broadband services have helped, but are a fraction of the voice revenue now dwindling away. To replace lost voice revenues, access provider broadband revenues would have to triple. To many observers, that must mean revenue shared with business partners, as it is hard to see end-user payments tripling.

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U.K. Regulator Not Initially Convinced Net Neutrality Rules Needed

Ofcom, the U.K. communications regulator, has opened an inquiry into network management and network neurality issues by suggesting it does not presently see evidence of anti-competitive behavior that requires "ex ante" (rules instituted before any obvious problems) regulation.

Ofcom's proceeding is noteworthy for its refreshing honesty about the "network neutrality" debate; namely that the stakes include the utlimate division of revenue and profit in the developing broadband ecosystem.


"As the telecommunications market, content sector and online sector change, points of friction will inevitably arise over who controls customer relationships and the rate of innovation," Ofcom said. "Firms across these sectors are also competing for a share of advertising revenues and consumers’ expenditure at a time when there are concerns about the sustainability of many of the existing business models, not just for traditional telco and content distribution businesses but also a surprisingly large number of online businesses."

"As the value chain is taking shape, network operators and content providers are bargaining over how future rents will be divided and technical measures such as DPI and DRM are being deployed in part to strengthen relative negotiating positions," Ofcom noted.

The situation is especially acute in the mobile space, where bandwidth consumed, and hence network cost, is growing far faster than revenue.


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Anthropic Strategy: Productivity Platform

Anthropic’s (Claude) likely strategy is to evolve from a pure AI model/API provider into a fully integrated, end-to-end AI productivity plat...