Sigmoid Curves and Network Effects Drive Scale and, Usually, Profit Margins

Ultimately, businesses live and die on three simple dynamics: distributions, network effects and  sigmoid curves (S curves), says Niel Robertson, Trada CEO.

Distributions tell you how much you can afford to spend selling a product, he says. Accounts worth $1,000 each cannot be sold the same way as accounts worth $1 million each. Mass media advertising or distributors might work for the former, but direct sales is feasible for the latter. 

S curves determine how far you can scale a business, he says. S curves also illustrate product life cycles and the strategy of creating the next new wave of products before the current revenue driver begins to decline. 

Network effects account for the out-sized returns when a business can achieve huge market share.

Almost all problems (and most opportunities) come from understanding how to take advantage of these functions – rather than fight against them, he says.

There's a Difference Between a "Search Query" and a Robo Call

Twitter's search query numbers include 'searches' from Twitter apps such as TweetDeck and Seesmic that are actually just automated calls those apps send out every few minutes to populate columns users have set up to see tweets on certain topics.

So maybe recent Twitter "search volume" figures are a bit inflated?

Reality Check: Twitter's Huge Search Query Numbers Are Falsely Inflated

Differing iPhone Demographics in France, U.K., Germany

Apparently iPhone owners in several European countries have distinct and non-similar age profiles.

The key segment in France is 16-to 24-year-olds, who represent 36 percent of France’s iPhone owners; in the UK, it’s 25- to 34-year-olds, who account for 40 percent of the U.K.’s iPhone owners; and it’s 35- to 44-year-olds in Germany, who make up 33 percent of Germany’s iPhone owners.

In France, which has the highest adoption of iPhones in Europe, only 57 percent of the total iPhone installed base is male; in Germany, it’s 76 percent.

Profiling Your Best Mobile Customers | Forrester Blogs

Where Google Might Go Next

Taking a look at places users go immediately after visiting Google to search for something suggests the next area Google might explore, after its recent move into travel: gaming.

The table shows the top 20 downstream industries visited after a Google visit during the month of June 2010.

Google's presence is obvious in most: Search Engines (Google.com), Entertainment (YouTube), Shopping and Classifieds (Google Shopping, Google Base), Business and Finance (Google Finance). Google's presence is perhaps less obvious in others: Social Networking and Forums (YouTube, Orkut, Google Talk), Education (Knol, Google Book Search, Google Scholar), Lifestyle (Blogger).

After travel, gaming is the next area where Google does not arguably already have a presence.

Hitwise Intelligence - Heather Hopkins - North America

Anybody Can Make a Mistake: This Doesn't Exactly Sound Like a Mistake

Late last month, lobbyists for the pro-net neutrality movement began circulating a letter on Capitol Hill demanding the immediate passage of a law that would allow the Federal Communications Commission to regulate broadband access as a common carrier service. The letter featured over 160 signatories, among them the Dr. Pepper Museum, Planned Parenthood of North Texas, and Operation Catnip, a spay-and-neuter clinic in Gainesville, Florida.

One signatory doesn’t remember signing anything related to net neutrality, and the other signatories contacted by The Daily Caller could not explain their support for Title II reclassification. In fact, they didn’t even attempt to explain their support.

Legislators vote on bills they haven't read. Apparently groups sometimes "support" issues they don't necessarily understand.

Free Press and NTEN con nonprofits into supporting net neutrality | The Daily Caller - Breaking News, Opinion, Research, and Entertainment

The Web is Getting More Social, Google Says

No surprise then that Google, one way or the other, will "get more social" in response.

Deja Vu All Over Again?

Some might argue that Apple's invention of an amazing new product will prove to be "deja vu all over again."

Though any such analysis has to account for the intervening success of the iPod, which completely dominates market share in the MP3 player market, what happened in the PC business could happen in the tablet PC market, some will argue.

Namely, Apple could wind up a niche supplier of high-end devices, rather than the dominant provider in the segment, because of its insistence on a "closed" model.

This Android Chart Should Scare The Bejesus Out Of Apple

Mobile Access: People are Rational

One of the issues when looking at broadband access is the role of demand. People sometimes assume that more people would use broadband if more were available, which ignores the fact that most people do have access, and choose not to buy fixed broadband service, for example, much as most people choose not to buy the fastest-possible speed service.

The point is that consumers are rational: they buy services and products that have value.

Consider use of mobile Internet services. According to researchers at Pew Internet & American Life Project, minority Americans lead the way when it comes to mobile access, especially mobile access using handheld devices. Does that mean there is a "mobile broadband digital divide?" Hardly. The same percentage of European-descended Americans have mobile phones.

Sometimes, different segments of the consumer population will use some services, features or applications more than others. That does not necessarily mean there is a "divide" of any sort that is driven by disparate access to assets. It does mean some people find some services and applications more useful than others do.

Nearly two-thirds of African-descendedAmericans (64 percent) and Latinos (63 percent) are wireless Internet users, for example, a higher percentage than European-descended Americans. More Latinos and African Americans own mobile phones than European-descended Americans.

"Minority" Americans are significantly more likely to own a cell phone than their white counterparts (87 percent of blacks and Hispanics own a cell phone, compared with 80 percent of whites). Additionally, black and Latino cell phone owners take advantage of a much wider array of their phones’ data functions compared to white cell phone owners.

Statistical variances, in other words, are just that--variances--and not necessarily evidence of disparity of access.

Mobile Access 2010 | Pew Internet & American Life Project

60% of U.S. Adults Use Mobile Internet

About 60 percent of adult American adults are now wireless Internet users, and mobile data applications have grown more popular over the last year, according to the Pew Internet & American Life Project.

Pew defines "wireless Internet use" as going online with a laptop using a Wi-Fi connection or mobile broadband card, or using the Internet, email or instant messaging on the mobile phone.

Roughly half of all adults (47 percent) say they use a Wi-Fi connection, up from the 39 percent who did so at a similar point in 2009.

About 40 percent of adults use the mobile Internet, email or IM from a mobile device, an increase from the 32 percent of adults who did so in 2009.

Mobile Access 2010 | Pew Internet & American Life Project:

Digital Migration Hurts Traditional Media More Than Expected

The annual decline in 2009 revenues in several traditional media categories was more severe than originally forecast, according to PriceWaterhouseCoopers research. Most striking was the decline in out-of-home revenues, which fell approximately 13 percent in 2009, compared to a forecast of about seven percent. In addition, radio revenues declined about nine percent, compared to an approximately seven percent forecast.

The other two media categories which had a 2009 revenue decline more severe than originally predicted by PriceWaterhouseCoopers were newspaper publishing (approximately 12 percent compared to a forecast of slightly more than 10 percent) and consumer magazine publishing (about 11 percent compared to a forecast of about nine percent).

Digital Migration Hurts Traditional Media Revenues More than Expected

Mobile TV Revenues to Double by 2015

Global revenues from mobile TV, which totaled $3.2 billion in 2009, should reach $7 billion by 2015. Almost all of this growth will occur in streamed TV services, which currently account for the vast majority of mobile TV revenues, according to Juniper Research.

Broadcast TV services will undergo slight but steady growth, while streamed TV services will steadily rise for the next year or so and then sharply accelerate through 2015.

Mobile TV Revenues to Double by 2015

What Keeps Service Provider Executives Awake At Night? A Service Provider Survey by Metaswitch Networks - Thoughts on Carrier Evolution - Carrier Evolution

Service provider executives surveyed by Metaswitch Networks say uncertainty about new services and revenues, plus competition, remain the top concerns over the next decade. That has been true for most of the past decade, and the survey results confirm that the search for new revenue sources and the pressure of competition remain dominant facts of life in competitive and changing marketplaces.

The significant new difference is that telecom regulators—and what they might do—now are among the top three concerns. Of the three top concerns, though, only service innovation and the organizational response to competition are under direct control.

Click the image for a larger view. 

What Keeps Service Provider Executives Awake At Night? A Service Provider Survey by Metaswitch Networks - Thoughts on Carrier Evolution - Carrier Evolution

Apple's iPhone 4 Update Won't Fix Reception

Apple is working on an update for the signal strength display on iPhone 4 models. There is a problem with the way the iPhone 4 display signal strength, and the update will mean the display corresponds to the received signal strength.

The software update will not fix the antenna reception problem, though. According to some wireless experts, there is an antenna design problem. Using a bumper seems to help.

Why Apple's iPhone 4 Update Won't Fix Your Reception Problem

Apple's IPad Getting Enterprise Traction

Despite its launch as a consumer device, the iPad, like the iPhone before it, is getting workplace adoption. That doesn't mean Apple is especially anxious to create enterprise products, but simply that the same attributes that appeal to consumers also appeal to business users.

Research in Motion and Microsoft are the two companies which have to worry about such trends, since those two companies tend to dominate corporate demand for smartphones and PCs.

Apple's IPad Wins Corporate Converts at Wells Fargo, SAP - Bloomberg

Twitter Has Changed the News Business

Public relations practitioners are already talking about ‘breaking’ news of an event (staged for commercial benefit) using Twitter, thereby bypassing any editorial scrutiny.

Click on image for larger view.

Of course journalists themselves are being side-stepped by bloggers and citizen reporters, some would rightly note.

These are people who have little interest in what is viewed as “old-school” media practices that require investment of more time when researching stories. Even journalists would admit to relaxing their own rules for their blogs, Twitter feeds and other interweb media.

Twitter breaks news, but will it break journalism? | memeburn