Friday, September 30, 2011

"Helicopter" View of Google Maps

Getting directions is one of the most popular features on Google Maps, whether it be for driving, walking, biking or transit. Today, is launching a new feature that allows users to preview routes in 3D.

"Let’s say you’re planning a road trip down the beautiful coast of California’s Highway 1 and want to be able to see what the route really looks like. California’s rugged coastline is not to be missed, but the top-down view really doesn’t give you a good sense of what this majestic terrain is like. Using the 3D preview; however, you can get aerial view of the route, as if you were in a helicopter flying above the road."

Cable’s Packaging Dilemma

Video service providers are caught in a vice, and so are many of their customers. The problem is escalating costs for content access, and contact clauses that it make it difficult for distributors to restructure their service packages in ways that would allow customers to opt out of some pricey offerings.

ESPN charges cable operators an average $4.69 a month for each subscriber. And ESPN contracts mandate that ESPN be carried on the most-popular tier of service. Cable networks such as CNN or TBS charge less than a dollar, says SNL Kagan analyst Derek Baine. 


So if a distributor created a new tier of service without ESPN and other pricey sports programming, and consumers responded, distributors would have to put ESPN back into those lower-priced tiers, which would destroy the retail pricing advantage again.

And even in a hypothetical full a la carte environment, when all subscribers would have the option to buy each channel one by one, ESPN parent Disney Co would likely have to charge about $30 just for ESPN to make up for lost advertising and affiliate revenue it gets from distributors.


In part, the lost revenue would come from advertising revenue on ESPN, and in part the lower revenue would represent the value of the fees Disney gets from contracts that say distributors must carry a number of other networks, to get ESPN, argues Sanford C. Bernstein analyst Craig Moffett.

The end result would likely be that consumers wound up paying more money for just a relative handful of channels than they pay for hundreds of channels today. 


Unless distributors can force major programmers to sign different contracts, it is going to be very difficult to create the lower-cost packages many consumers actually may want, or even tiers that are cheaper because they do not include the pricey sports channels. 

Social Gamers Open to In-App Ads, Commerce, Virtual Currencies

About seven percent of social gamers surveyed by Interpret, on behalf of RockYou, would use real money to purchase a virtual item not used inside the game, 14 percent have used real money to purchase virtual currency, 13 percent use a branded virtual good, and 18 percent paid to play a game or get items in a game.

On average, gamers spend $42.70 on in-game items or virtual currency. A quarter of the survey participants report buying virtual currency at least once weekly, and 55 percent would rather earn virtual currency than purchase items with real money.

When it comes to ads in games, 45 percent are open to viewing in-game ads to earn virtual currency, 42 percent are more motivated to play a social game that offers real-world rewards, like a coupon or gift card, and 41 percent will review the game or spread the word through their social network page to earn virtual currency.

All of those sentiments illustrate growing interest on the part of game developers in in-application commerce, in-app advertising and in-app "currencies" of various types.

How Much Sharing Will Facebook Users Really Want?

Privacy and sharing always are in tension with any application a user wants to experience in a personalized and custom way. It' hard for an application to provide a personalized experience without knowing a fair amount about a user's preferences.

We are about to find out whether 800 million Facebook users prefer the "Open Graph apps" to share widely, or will ratchet up their privacy settings. How many people will give services permission to share everything on Facebook, and then rue it months or years later when something they don't want the world to know about is instantly distributed to all?

Will users want to give Facebook the right to log all actions?

Devices are Gateways to Services, Content and Software

“In the modern era of consumer electronics devices, if you are just building a device you are unlikely to succeed,” says Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos. “Today it is about the software, the software on the device and the software in the cloud. It is a seamless service."

Some would say that is a reason no Android tablet has yet taken off to rival the iPad: tablets are a window into the cloud.

The companies that get this are best positioned in the post-PC world. It is not just about the device, but about the services on the Internet tied to that device.

If You Are Just Building A Device You Are Unlikely To Succeed

RIM Halts BlackBerry Playbook Production, Some Say

 Has Research in Motion stopped making its BlackBerry Playbook tablet computer? Portfolio.com reports that Research in Motion has stopped manufacturing the tablets and is considering exiting the tablet market altogether.


"We believe RIM has stopped production of its PlayBook and is actively considering exiting the tablet market," Collins Stewart tech analyst John Vinh said in a report. The chip analyst said manufacturer Quanta had laid off a "significant number" of workers from a factory that produces RIM's PlayBook. RIM denies report


RIM dismissed reports that its PlayBook was in danger of extinction as "pure fiction." RIM spokeswoman Jamie Ernst said, "RIM remains highly committed to the tablet market."

Facebook Tracks Users Who are Logged Off

Facebook is facing new regulatory scrutiny after revelations that the application is tracking users even after they have logged out of the application.

In a letter to the Federal Trade Commission, Reps. Edward J. Markey (D-Mass.) and Joe Barton (R-Tex.) wrote that Facebook’s use of “cookie” software should be investigated under the “unfair and deceptive acts” clause of the agency’s mandate.
Privacy issues

Facebook says it has fixed the problem, which had been that every time a user visits a site that features a Facebook "Like" button, a record is sent back to Facebook, even after you log off your account.

The new application programming interface allows applications to post status items to a Facebook timeline without a users intervention. It is an extension of "Facebook Instant" and the privacy concern here is that because you no longer have to explicitly opt-in to share an item, you may accidentally share a page or an event that you did not intend others to see. Logging out of Facebook is not enough.

The advice to "log out of Facebook," in and of itself, does not fix the problem. Logging out of Facebook only de-authorizes your browser from the web application. A number of cookies (including your account number) are still sent along to all requests to Facebook.com.

Even if you are logged out, Facebook still knows and can track every page you visit. The only solution is to delete every Facebook cookie in your browser, or to use a separate browser for Facebook interactions, some would argue.

Facebook said the issue has been fixed.

But some now raise further issues about Facebook’s new “friction-less sharing” features, which allow applications to post user activity in real time, without requiring permission from account holders for each update. The apps require users to grant permission once to generate updates, and users have the ability to change these settings at any time. But many users will not.

Twitter Ad Revenues to Near $400 Million by 2013

Twitter Ad Revenues Worldwide, 2010-2013 (millions and % change)Twitter will earn $139.5 million in global ad revenues this year, up 210 percent from $45 million in 2010, according to a new forecast from eMarketer. By 2013, eMarketer estimates worldwide ad revenues at Twitter will reach nearly $400 million.

That will matter for most end users who like Twitter but don't want to pay a subscription fee. Advertising likely remains the most logical revenue model for many mass market applications and services, though the "freemium" model that builds on subscription revenue or commerce revenue seems to run a close second in start-up thinking.

“Since their debut in April 2010, Twitter’s 'Promoted' products have proven successful in the US,” said eMarketer principal analyst Debra Aho Williamson. “Marketers have shown solid engagement rates with Twitter advertising—in some cases better than those on Facebook—despite Twitter’s relatively smaller audience.”

Twitter Ad Revenues to Near $400 Million by 2013

Why it is So Hard to Innovate Like Apple

Those of you who work inside larger enterprises will appreciate the sentiment that virtually no companies innovate the way Apple does. And even Apple might regress towards the mean in five years or so.

"While driving our new Acura RDX the other day (and trying to find something via the navigation system), my partner and I both looked at each other and said, "When will Apple make a car? They'd get it right," says Jack Aaronson, The Aaronson Group CEO.

"We say the same thing about cable TV interfaces, wishing that Apple TV would finally become a higher priority for Apple. We say the same thing looking at the new slew of Android phones, and are frustrated that Google has chosen to emulate Microsoft's way of designing software instead of Apple's," he says.

Most of you who work in larger enterprises will appreciate the many subtle, and not so subtle ways business-relevant innovation can be stifled. Those of you who work at small organizations will face equally-substantial obstacles, but for different reasons. Bigger organizations have the resources to innovate in relevant ways, but typically have human obstacles to doing so. Smaller organizations often have the will, but not the resources.

If innovation were really easy, more firms would be clearly recognized as outstanding in that regard. Innovation, no less than anything else in the real world, appears to be a "Bell Curve."

Amazon to buy WebOS?

Amazon is rumored to be among the top contenders to buy WebOS from Hewlett-Packard. The obvious application would be the 10-inch tablet Amazon is expected to develop.

The Kindle Fire is powered by Android, but it’s been heavily customized by Amazon to the point where you can barely tell, some would argue. Other players in the device business have reasons to create an ecosystem of products unified around a single operating system, Apple being the classic example.

But there has been a rapid trend towards operating system fragmentation recently, with major smart phone suppliers deciding they must own both their operating system and hardware to compete at the top levels globally, in both smart phones and tablets.

Amazon might believe it needs a similar degree of uniqueness for its larger-screen devices that might function less as e-readers and more as full-fledged tablets.

Thursday, September 29, 2011

Microsoft to Add Comcast, Verizon Video Content to Xbox Live

Microsoft Corp. plans to offer online video licensed from Comcast Corp. and Verizon Communications through Xbox Live, so long as consumers already are subscribers to either provider, Bloomberg reports.

Microsoft also is said to be in talks with almost two dozen providers of music, sports, movies and TV shows in the United States and Europe, and may announce an expanded Xbox Live streaming service as soon as next week. Essentially, the moves would allow Comcast and Verizon to enable their current services on the Xbox platform, increasing stickiness, while Xbox Live would presumably also become a more-appealing service.

How Low can Kindle Prices Go?

chart of the day, kindle price september 2011Kindles at $79 and $99 ought to drive quite a lot of adoption of basic e-readers. The issue is what comes next, at the low end.

Over the last four years, prices for the low-end model have dropped from about $400 to $80.

Bundle a content subscription and the price could be really low.

Kindle pricing over time

"Unintended Consequences" of Financial Reform Laws

Bank of America Corp. plans to charge its customers a $5 monthly fee for making debit-card purchases starting early in 2012, the Wall Street Journal reports.

The fee will apply to customers with various checking accounts during any month they use their debit card to make a purchase. The fee will not apply to customers who do not use their debit card to make a purchase or who only use it to make ATM transactions. The fee also will not apply to customers in certain premium accounts.

Bank of America is trying to cushion revenue losses it expects to incur from new caps on the fees merchants pay when a customer uses a debit card at their stores. In June, the Federal Reserve Board finalized rules capping such fees at 24 cents per transaction, compared with a current average of 44 cents.

Other banks have introduced or are testing new fees in response to the debit-fee caps, which stem from a provision known as the Durbin amendment in last year's Dodd-Frank financial regulation overhaul legislation.

The moves illustrate the unintended consequences that tend to develop from "well meaning" regulation. The Durbin amendment ostensibly was an attempt to "protect" consumers and retailers from "high transaction fees." But the rules also represent an immediate $6.6 billion reduction in bank revenue.

So what will the banks do? Raise other fees to recoup the losses. Retailers might still be happy to pay the lower transaction fees. But the shortfall will be made up directly by customers.

More sales leads stem from websites, not social media

The website was cited by executives as the top online source of sales leads (23 percent), followed by e-mail (14 percent), online advertising (7 percent), and social media (3 percent), in a recent survey sponsored by Demandbase. None of that should be surprising. So far, the best advice for a business of almost any size is that if there were only one tool to invest in, the company website would top the list.

Enterprises emphasized the importance of measuring volume (44 percent total), while small businesses emphasized quality of leads (40 percent total). More sales leads from websites, not social media

Social is Not About Media

A social business, then, by definition, is one which engages customers across a multitude of channels, across the entire organization, and is active in their communication and interactions. Human relations, finance, billing, accounts receivable, support and operations all have social dimensions. No group can sit idly by and say that it does not apply to them. You can no longer be indispensable to your customers for long. Your customers can always readily find an alternative. Social is about all business processes, not just marketing and promotion.

On the Use and Misuse of Principles, Theorems and Concepts

When financial commentators compile lists of "potential black swans," they misunderstand the concept. As explained by Taleb Nasim ...