At the recent Stealth Communications Voice Peering Forum, a group of us were asked to speculate about where the telecom industry was headed. Panelist Rich Tehrani said Google was going to be a major factor. As part of a vigorous discussion that followed, one attendee argued the opposite position, that Google has pretty much failed at just about everything it has tried aside from search.
One point that wasn't made (as the moderator I had to let the panelists have at it) is an observation many observers have made about the process of innovation, and what is necessary to spur innovation inside just about any company.
And that point is that the rate of failure has to accelerate if truly significant innovations are to be discovered. Failure is an unavoidable part of the process of experimentation. And the issue, many observe, is that "failure" traditionally is not treated kindly inside most large organizations, including large telcos.
One reason many observers have little expectation that telcos will lead the innovative process is precisely the cultural aversion to failure. Telcos need to make big bets to get any meaningful revenue lift. That need to place big bets also acts as a brake on innovation, though.
What seems an insane culture at Google might actually be viewed as a deliberate attempt to "accelerate the rate of failure." The more failures, the more the organization learns. The more it learns, the more chance it can discover something really important.
Failure, in other words, is not the end. Failure is part of the process of figuring out what works and what doesn't. And Google is looking for large returns as much as any other major entity in the communications and media space. The difference is that Google is highly tolerant of experimentation and failure as a basic part of its attempt to "win big."
That isn't to say every idea Google tries to implement seems "logical" or even prudent. It does seem quite "messy," quite frequently. But there is a method to the madness, as they say.
That isn't to say Google is guaranteed success in its endeavors related to media and communications, going forward. It likely will fail in public ways in the future. That should not lead us to conclude Google really is overhyped as a force in the communications business because it fails so often.
I will be more concerned when Google stops failing so much. Because that will be the signal it really has ceased to be a force for genuine innovation with life-changing and market-affected impact.
Thursday, December 6, 2007
Google's Embrace of Failure
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Gary Kim has been a digital infra analyst and journalist for more than 30 years, covering the business impact of technology, pre- and post-internet. He sees a similar evolution coming with AI. General-purpose technologies do not come along very often, but when they do, they change life, economies and industries.
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