Thursday, June 12, 2008
Execs Know Change is Coming; Just 30% Claim Insight
There's no question global telecom service provider executives know big changes are coming. There's universal agreement that new revenue sources will displace voice as the industry mainstay.
There's wide agreement that traditional voice revenues will shrink for a variety of reasons. A shift of some usage to Web-mediated or IM-mediated providers and applications is one factor. But so are other IP-based and enhanced versions of voice communications that will substitute for legacy voice. Higher-fidelity voice is one example, say researchers at Telco 2.0.
What also remains clear is that just 30 percent of executives claim to know "quite well" the additional needs users may have for new voice and messaging products. At this point, that's refreshing. The industry has been surprised by the biggest innovations in demand on a fairly regular basis.
Mobile wasn't thought to be such a big deal. But mobile accounts now surpass landlines in many countries. Text messaging emerged from nowhere. So executives thought multimedia messaging would be big as well. It hasn't worked out that way.
Global executives were certain 3G would create huge new revenue streams. So far it hasn't. So there's nothing wrong with an attitude of openness to innovations that might develop, for demand that could exist, and for applications with revenue potential one might not suspect.
If history teaches us anything, it is to anticipate the unexpected.
Gary Kim has been a digital infra analyst and journalist for more than 30 years, covering the business impact of technology, pre- and post-internet. He sees a similar evolution coming with AI. General-purpose technologies do not come along very often, but when they do, they change life, economies and industries.
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