One of the frustrations many of us have with governments substituting themselves for the market is that nobody is smart enough to figure out all of the unanticipated consequences. Without making any judgments about the broader theory of pump priming Keynesian theory suggests now are appropriate, externalities seem the order of the day.
The undeniably popular U.S. cash-for-clunkers program may be drawing money from other consumer purchases and could also undermine future car sales, U.S. economists now warn. The latest Commerce Department retail sales figures show U.S. retail sales fell 0.1% in July, as opposed to expectations sales would gain 0.8%. Excluding autos, retail sales declined 0.6% versus an expected gain of 0.1%.
So it is hard to discount the notion that spending was diverted from other retail items and towards autos. Worse, many assume the new car sales simply shifted fixed demand forward: people bought cars now when they were planning on doing so later in the year or early in 2010, suggests
Joshua Shapiro, chief US Economist at MFR.
“Anyone thinking about buying cars in the next several months might as well do it now when the government is giving away $4,500,” he says.
“It’s a nice success, but there’s a macroeconomic risk going forward,” says Joseph Brusuelas of Moody’s Economy.com. In "the first quarter of 2010, the stimulus will begin to wither, and consumption which would have otherwise occurred next year will have occurred in the second half of 2009.”
One wonders what other sorts of externalities now are occuring elsewhere in the economy, and will happen when broadband stimulus funds start to flow sometime in early 2010.
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