One likely would bet against Apple extending its exclusive U.S. distribution deal with AT&T past 2010, based on market share statistics gathered from around the world, including markets where Apple has an exclusive carrier partner as well as markets where Apple has a multi-partner distribution. Consider the Frech market, where Apple has multiple distributors.
"In France, the company now enjoys dramatically higher market share (in the 40 percent range vs. about 15 percent in ROW) than in countries with exclusive carrier agreements (such as AT&T in the U.S. where the iPhone has market share in the mid-teens).Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray senior research analyst.
Those market penetration figures should prove more compelling than the lower revenue per iPhone unit Apple gets in countries with multiple distributors, Munster argues.
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