Javelin Strategy & Research expects 60 million American households to be using person-to-person payments by 2014, a forecast some might find aggressive. PayPal, which launched in 1999, has offered P2P payments using the Web, initiated by use of a PC, for some time.
Since then, PayPal has extended that capability to smart phones. But what will it take for millions of households to acquire the habit? That's the rub, some would say.
As with many other new behaviors, it helps if the transactions are the sorts of activities that a user frequently has to conduct. That is one reason transit payments seem to make a lot of sense. Other apps often seen as driving such behavior, such as paying a friend when a restaurant bill is split, might not happen so often. And that will raise the hassle factor, and lower the perceived value.
Then there is the question of business model. Lots more people will adopt the behavior if there are no transaction fees. But some services do require payment of a fee.
Popmoney charges 95 cents per payment to send. If a request for money is made and the money is delivered, the same charge applies. Dwolla charges 25 cents to receive money in amounts greater than $10.
Is that a big barrier? For some it might be. In developing markets the use case is much more clear. Where it is very time consuming, or dangerous, to send money to an organization or a person, mobile P2P transfers offer high value, with or without a transaction fee.
In developed markets, the value might be relatively slight, and any transaction cost might be viewed as unacceptable by many users. Bill payment might provide some insight. Lots of people pay bills using e-banking. But those transactions generally do not impose fees, so the barrier to adoption is low, and users can see the advantage of not paying a check cashing fee, paying for postage and getting mail to a postal drop-off location.
Most people probably can point to instances where e-payments requiring a significant fee (several dollars, for example) don't happen, though lots of other payments, not requiring a transaction fee, are made.
Thursday, August 23, 2012
Will 60 Million U.S. Households be Using Peer-to-Peer Payments in 2014?
Gary Kim has been a digital infra analyst and journalist for more than 30 years, covering the business impact of technology, pre- and post-internet. He sees a similar evolution coming with AI. General-purpose technologies do not come along very often, but when they do, they change life, economies and industries.
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