Apple Patent Win Over Samsung: Only Slight Impact?

It might be too early to predict the actual impact of the largely successful Apple patent infringement suit against Samsung. Some think the whole Android ecosystem will be negatively affected; others think that is unlikely. Some think any Android supplier whose devices “look like” an iPhone will have trouble.

The win, for better or worse, is likely to maintain, if not intensify, the rate at which patent lawsuits in the mobile business are filed. Some might argue that could slow innovation in the handset business. Others thinks the desire to avoid such entanglements could increase the amount of innovation in the handset business.

Service providers might reasonably assume their exposure to Apple’s power in the ecosystem now is increased. That is likely to reinforce efforts by service providers to support rival operating systems, manufacturers and devices, a move that already is underway.

The cost of building many smart phones could increase, if Samsung and others have to start paying new royalties to Apple to avoid future patent infringement lawsuits.

Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster predicts "only minor impact" on Samsung and Google from the recent patent infringement win by Apple.

"We believe that Samsung is likely to make software modifications to devices to work around the patented software features in question," says Munster. "For devices that infringe on design patents, we believe those devices may no longer be sold in the US; however, it does not appear that newer devices, including the Galaxy SIII are impacted."

Other opinions span a range of predictions, some suggesting rather mild impact; others predicting more serious damage. JP Morgan is among firms that believe the patent infringement decision is a negative for the Android ecosystem as it likely puts more pressure on Android OEMs to clearly differentiate devices.

Barclays argues that “this event alone” will have a minimal near-term impact on Android’s global momentum in the smart phone arena. Samsung will face some issues, but most of the devices cited in the case are older models. Significantly, Samsung’s current flagship phone, the Galaxy S III, was not included in the infringing devices.

UBS thinks the decision could result in a royalty revenue stream of perhaps $250 million a year for Apple.

Macquarie Equities Research thinks the decision will negatively affect the search distribution arrangements between Google and Apple. But that testiness was evident even before.

YouTube will not be a native app on iOS 6, for example.

There also is the question of potential benefit for the hiccup will be beneficial for Nokia, Microsoft or others in the ecosystem that seem to significantly different from the Apple iOS “look and feel.”