Historically, what it has taken to succeed in each era has required different architectures, has had firms engaging with different customers, or in different ways with customers, and has had different amounts of integration with other parts of life.
Some would say we have been though four eras, and are entering the fifth of five eras of computing, including mainframes, PCs and Web, while we now are entering the "Device" era, which will be followed by something Robert Grossman calls the "Data" era.
Others might say we have been through four eras, including mainframes, minicomputers, PCs and now are in an era where cloud or mobile might better characterize the new era.
The point is that, historically, these eras correspond to business leadership. It is therefore no knock on executive skill that firms such as Dell, HP, IBM and perhaps now even Apple have run into problems when eras change.
Most technology historians would agree there was a mainframe era of computing, followed by the mini-computer and then PC or client-server era. Most would agree that each era of computing has been lead by different companies.
IBM in the mainframe era; Digital Equipment Corp. in the mini-computer era and Microsoft and Intel in the PC (or Cisco in the client-server era, as one might also refer to the PC era) are examples. Apple has been among the brightest names in the current era, however one wishes to describe it. But judging by market valuation, Apple has hit a bit of an air pocket.
But there is no doubt there has been a change over the past decade or so. Where in the late 1990s one might have said EMC, Oracle, Cisco and Sun Microsystems were the four horsemen of the Internet, leading the business, nobody would say that in 2013.
These days, it is application firms such as Google, Amazon, Facebook, plus Apple, that fit into the typology.
There has been a trend towards computing pervasiveness, as each era has succeeded the earlier era. Computing used to be in a "glass room." Then it could be done in a closet. With PCs computing moved to the desktop. Now, computing is in a purse or pocket.
The role of software obviously has become more important over time. But, to this point, computing eras have never been defined by the key applications enabled. Perhaps we will one day see matters differently, but it would be a change to shift from "how" computing is done to "what computing does" to define the eras.
We all sense that a new era is coming, and that the Internet, mobile devices and applications will be more important. But there is not any agreement on whether we have "arrived" or are still only approaching the new era.
We certainly are leaving the PC era. That's why former Apple CEO Steve Jobs always insisted the iPad was not a PC. In fact, many would insist that it is the tablet's optimization for content consumption that makes it distinctive.
We can't yet say that the next era of computing is defined by mobile devices, tablets, the Internet or cloud computing or even the fact that leadership is shifting more in the direction of applications and activities than computing appliances. But all of that hints at the shape of what might be coming.
If history holds, someday even Google, Apple, Facebook and Amazon will be seen as "former leaders." Despite the success those firms have enjoyed, there is still no precedent for a firm that leads in one era to lead in the next.
And IBM has shown one way of surviving in an era a former leader cannot dominate. Dell wants to go the same route. But it might be fair to say that "surprise" is one common element when eras start to change.
Michael Dell, about to execute a deal to take Dell private said the "rise of tablets had been unexpected."
"I didn't completely see that coming," he said.
Dell would be in good company. Bill Gates did not "get" the Internet, either.
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