Is 100-G About to Drive a New Wave of Core Network Spending?

"After ending 2012 on a flat note, things are looking up for the optical market in 2013," says Andrew Schmitt, Infonetics Research principal analyst for optical at Infonetics Research. "Our conversations with equipment providers continue to trend positive, particularly in North America where 100 Gbps spending is about to ramp. The general consensus remains that an optical cycle for equipment in the core is emerging, what we call the 'optical reboot.'"

"Meanwhile, there are positive rumbles in the EMEA region, where 2012 ended with a spending flourish and carriers are cutting dividends to plow capital into general capex," Schmitt says.

The preliminary indication for China is that 2013 also will be a huge year for 100G as well. China is about half of the global 40 Gbps wave division multiplexing equipment market, and 2013 will be the peak year for 40G worldwide, Schmitt says.

The global optical network hardware market grew two percent in the fourth quarter of 2012, quater over quarter, but was down 13 percent year over year.

For the full year 2012, total optical equipment spending was down 10 percent worldwide

The SONET/SDH optical segment fared much worse, falling 30 percent in 2012.