Apple's Next Big Thing

Apple will definitely try and disrupt another big business soon. That is fair to say. It has been three years since the iPad introduction, and five and a half years since the iPhone launch. 

So one has to expect something. The issue is what market Apple can create or reshape that is big enough to matter. 

"That's how Apple has done it," said Charlie Wolf, a vice president with research firm Needham and Company who has followed Apple since 1985. "But I can't identify any market that Apple can easily enter and disrupt right now -- that's with Steve Jobs, or without Steve Jobs."

Speculation the past few years has been about televisions. But some of us don't see that. Not that Apple wouldn't try. It's just hard to see how changing the interface, or integrating online with broadcast TV, will add enough value to drive Apple success on the level of the iPad or iPhone. 

Wrist computers might seem to be in the same category. But smart phones already have functionally disrupted the camera, clock, radio and navigation device categories. Tablets are disrupting the e-book reader market and the broader content consumption device area (iPods did it to music players earlier). 

It isn't that it it would be fun (necessary for Apple) to see Apple revolutionize something else we aren't thinking about. It's just hard to imagine what that might be.