AT&T Tests New Bundle: Netbook, Wireless and Wired Broadband for $59.95 a Month

AT&T is testing its new netbook-plus-wireless broadband bundle in its Atlanta and Philadelphia markets, offering a ultra-portable netbook with built-in AT&T 3G wireless capabilities when bought with a $59.95 per month "Internet at Home and On the Go" broadband service that includes both at-home digital subscriber line service plus wireless broadband.

Mini laptops available in selected AT&T stores in Atlanta and Philadelphia include the Acer Aspire One, Dell Inspiron Mini 9 and Mini 12, and LG Xenia. Promotional prices range from $49.99 to $249.99 with the purchase of an "AT&T Internet at Home and On the Go" plan, which includes an AT&T DataConnect plan and AT&T Fast Access DSL, starting at $59.95 per month. Without those AT&T services, these mini laptops range in price from $449.99 to $599.99.

AT&T is offering two mobile DataConnect plans in the trial, including a 200 MByte plan for $40 per month and a 5 GByte plan for $60 per month.

For users who wnat more standard notebooks, the trial also will feature the Lenovo X200 for $749.99 with "Internet at Home and On the Go." The laptop is available for $849.99 if a user buys only the two-year DataConnect plan.

The embrace of traditional mobile phone subsidy models is part of the story. The bundling of wireless and wired broadband might ultimately be just as big a part of the story. Consider that the $60 a month plan includes both wireless broadband and DSL as well.

Though the DSL likely will not include the faster speeds many users now require, you might think of the offer as something like a "free DSL" program, as wireless broadband access now costs about $60 a month for 5 Gbytes of usage. The new AT&T includes the heavily-discounted PC plus wireless and DSL broadband for just $59.95 a month.

http://www.att.com/gen/press-room?pid=4800&cdvn=news&newsarticleid=26676

Verizon to Activate 25 to 30 LTE Markets in 2010

Verizon Communications CEO Ivan Seidenberg says his firm will begin deployment of its fourth-generation Long Term Evolution network "later this year with a few commercially-ready markets and will roll it out to 25 or 30 markets in 2010."

But the infrastructure only is "just one piece of the puzzle," he says. "It's the combination of devices, applications and network capabilities that will really cause this market to take off," Seidenberg says. "No single company will be able to envision, let alone provide, every aspect of this whole 4G ecosystem on its own."

That is a primary reason why the 4G business model will be different from what we have seen with 2G networks, with 3G being someplace in between. Where 2G was largely a vertically-integrated business, 3G has been more open, at least to the extent that broadband access to the Internet itself is an "open" environment.

The 4G model inevitably will be more of an "ecosystem" approach, in part because many applications are seen as "machine to machine," and in part because device and application openness will be much more central ways of creating new applications.

http://sev.prnewswire.com/telecommunications/20090401/NY9285501042009-1.html

Cox Communications Plans CDMA, LTE Networks

Cox Cummunications is moving ahead with its plans to build an in-region moble broadband network using CDMA, the same platform used by Verizon Wireless and Sprint Nextel. Cox is said to be thinking more along the lines of Long Term Evolution for its fourth-generation network.

Huawei Technologies Co. says it has been selected to provide its end-to-end CDMA solutions and services to Cox Communications. Cox, the third-largest cable provider in the United States, will launch its new 3G wireless network utilizing Huawei’s LTE-ready SingleRAN solution and industry-leading 3900 Series base stations, Huawei says.

Cox might rely on its partnership with Clearwire or Sprint for out-of-region roaming. As Sprint's national network uses CDMA, it makes sense to rely on the Sprint network rather than WiMAX for out of region coverage.

http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=174434&site=cdn

T-Mobile 3G This Summer

T-Mobile USA will launch commercial 3G services this summer, finally. The company blames spectrum issues for the delay (3G was supposed to launch mid-2007). T-Mobile invested $4.2 billion in 2006 to more than double its spectrum holding in the top 100 U.S. cities it serves.

Those of you who have had to live with EDGE access speeds (just like most iPhone users) will be happy. Up to this point, EDGE access has felt remarkably like "dial up" access. And how many of you can imagine doing important work, or trying to get any of the normal sorts of information you look for in a day, over a dial-up connection?

People don't use the mobile Web much because it's too painful, even if there were interesting applications.

at&t to Add 80 Cities to 3G Network

at&t Wireless will extend its third-generation (3G) wireless broadband network to more than 80 additional cities in the United States this year. About 270 communities already have 3G service available.

Most major metro areas already are covered, but you'd be surprised at the number of suburban communities even around the major markets that only have the slower EDGE data network. That's one reason, aside from battery life, that the Apple iPhone initially was available only in an EDGE network version.

By the end of the year, nearly 350 leading U.S. markets will be served by the 3G network, including all of the top 100 U.S. cities. The 3G initiative requires the building of more than 1,500 additional cell sites.

The at&t 3G network now delivers typical downlink speeds ranging between 600 and 1,400 kilobits per second, as well as uplink speeds ranging from 500 and 800 kilobits per second, though the network is not yet completely equipped for the higher upstream capacity at all sites.

People often underestimate how long it takes for a national network to be created, even if it is a wireless network. Back in the regulated days of telecom, for example, a sizable telecom company would expect to upgrade or replace only about 10 percent of total plant in any single year.

So access plant changed slowest, though switch replacements could occur more quickly. And it isn't just "physical" networks that have to be built. A large carrier might operate 50 to 100 "logical" networks, as each separate service often required its own hardware, software, provisioning and billing systems.

Likewise, consider that Verizon Wireless has invested $300 million in 2007 to enhance its networks in Maryland, Washington, D.C., and Virginia alone, largely related to broadband upgrades, spending $6.5 billion investment nationwide.

"Reliable wireless networks are not built overnight," says Tami Erwin, Verizon Wireless regional president.

From an at&t Wireless perspective, it will take a year to light 80 communities, using 1,500 towers, to create a 3G network in those areas. And there will be more work next year.

WiMAX: Ultimate Role Unclear

Clearwire touts its vision of the future as mobile Internet. But so far, its customer base is a replacement for dial-up, cable modem or Digital Subscriber Line service. Just four percent of its customers appear to substituting a mobile service for WiMAX.

That isn't to say the customer base and apparent value proposition will remain as it currently is. WiMAX someday may compete more directly for the broadband-equipped mobile customer base.

That isn't the case today, where Clearwire seems to be competing with cable and telco fixed broadband services. At some point, the mobility play is supposed to have Clearwire and WiMAX competing more robustly for the data card and smart mobile phone customer. But lots of challenges remain.

WiMAX might someday primarily be a platform for mobile broadband. In Sprint's case, it might primarily be the next-generation replacement for 3G broadband. If the former winds up being the case, cost control will be more important. If the latter, feature richness will be more important.

The reason cost control is more important for a mobile broadband network is that the revenue sources will be less robust, on a "dollar for bit" basis, compared to networks that make lots of revenue from voice and texting services, which are highly efficient, on a "revenue for bit" basis.

Advertising also is more important if mobile broadband winds up being the primary attraction for WiMAX users. That suggests content access is more important than communications, and that in turn means media, and media always means advertising.

A Tip on WiMAX Direction

If analysts at In-Stat are right, and the WiMAX chipset market is driven primarily by embedded Mobile WiMAX chips in mobile PCs through 2012, we might conclude that some suppliers are betting WiMAX will be about mobile and tethered PCs, much more than dual-mode cellular/WiMAX handsets, at least for the foreseeable future.

In that view, WiMAX is, at least initially, a replacement service for cable modems, DSL and 3G data cards, rather than a platform for newer services. There's nothing wrong with approaching a possibly-new market by snagging revenues for legacy applications. What will be interesting is to see whether WiMAX can develop into something more than a 3G network with more bandwidth.

To be sure, there are several potential "disruptions" here. There is the "open networks" challenge, the possibility of disruptively-lower prices, opening up Web connections for whole new classes of devices as well as the potential creation of a mobile-Web-optmized network for the first time.

“The total WiMAX user terminal chipset market will reach almost $500 million in 2012, growing from $27 million in 2007,” says Gemma Tedesco, In-Stat analyst. “Furthermore, WiMAX base station semiconductor revenues are expected to be approximately $1.4 billion in 2012, compared to $130 million in 2007.”

Xohm: Where's the Beef?

Sprint Nextel says it will launch it Xohm WiMAX service at the end of April. Associated Press also reports that Xohm will not use subsidized handsets, will offer daily, weekly, monthly and longer-term contracts. In an attempt to differentiate itself from simple "access" services, Xohm will feature location-based services tied to advertising and search and portal services created by Google.

But Xohm will have to do more than that. As the first widespread network created expressly for broadband-based services, Xohm will be an early test of the economics of networks anchored on broadband access revenues rather than voice. And that is going to be a challenge in the early going. By definition, Xohm is soft launching service in three markets with established cable modem and Digital Subscriber Line service.

Chicago, Washington D.C and Baltimore, to be specific. Other markets are supposed to be added in April. The point is, if the offering is positioned as a terrestrial broadband substitute, how big is the opportunity? Conversely, if Xohm is positioned as a mobile broadband alternative to existing third generation services, are location services enough of a differentiating factor?

It is conceivable that customers will defect to Xohm for prosaic reasons: no-contract service or lower prices, for example.While helpful, that is hardly an objective requiring construction of an entirely-new network. Many years ago, when new blocks of spectrum were auctioned off for what was then called "personal communication services," the thinking was that the spectrum would be used to create new services, used in new ways. A prime example was a sort of quasi-cordless, quasi-cellular service that offered call handoff when the user moved at pedestrian speeds, but wouldn't be usable at freeway-driving speeds.

What happened is that all that spectrum wound up being used as the basis for CDMA and GSM-based 3G mobile networks instead. New services were created, of course, but not the ones everybody expected. People thought the access mode would be the difference. Instead, it was text messaging and mobile email that wound up driving new service revenues.

It is conceivable that some new use mode will develop for WiMAX networks, based on game platforms or media devices rather than phones, for example. The issue then will be about whether the cost of building and operating the network, and securing the spectrum, can support the revenue generated by the new use cases. It's not going to be easy.
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The Trouble with WiMAX

The "trouble" with WiMAX, I've maintained, has nothing to do with performance, or necessarily with network cost. The technology will work. The issue is how and where WiMAX fits in the business environment. In developed markets where lots of competition already exists, the issue is figuring out where WiMAX plays in the applications environment. As a fixed alternative to cable modem, fiber-to-customer or Digital Subscriber Line services, the issue is how big a market exists. As a mobile broadband platform, the issue is how it competes with 3G networks and Long Term Evolution, the GSM-based fourth generation network alternative.

There's less contention in rural areas or less-developed broadband environments. Where it is too expensive to deploy a terrestrial broadband network, WiMAX has a clear logic. Even there, though, there might be questions about how more-established mobile voice and 3G networks factor into the competitive equation. One certainly can argue that WiMAX will provide much more bandwidth than 3G, today. The issue is how long it will take to create robust revenue models for 3G services, let alone providing those services more effectively over a faster 4G network.

It is, in short, a business issue, not a technology issue. To be sure, one can argue that a new market for broadband-enabled devices other than mobile phones is coming to fruition. But the issue there remains whether WiMAX necessarily or primarily provides access to those devices in ways that 3G cannot, let alone 4G. One might argue that WiMAX has a shot at providing access to all kinds of consumer devices other than "phones." But one might also argue that such connectivity has to be much cheaper than anything we've seen so far.

WiMAX networks might be half as costly as a 3G network to build. But that's not enough. They also have to be less than half as costly to operate, or prices won't be low enough to entice users to pay for connections to cameras, music players, game or entertainment platforms, for example. Those functions also are enabled on 3G networks, in many cases, combining the text and voice functions with the very services WiMAX might enable.

WiMAX might not prove to have the market traction its supporters hope for, in other words, at least in developed broadband markets where there is robust competition from cable modem, DSL, fiber to home, 3G mobile, fixed wireless, Wi-Fi hotspot and satellite broadband alternatives. The difference could come if WiMAX becomes the mobile provider 4G platform or if mobile WiMAX access is priced well below current mobile rates, allowing customers to access enable more devices than they now do.

It is not unthinkable for users to consider simultaneous broadband subscriptions. But it does require a more-compelling value/price relationship. We can assume standard-issue mobile phones, increasingly of the "smart" variety and optimized for Web experiences. We also can assume greater penetration of wireless data cards to support notebook PC use in nomadic fashion. What is not yet clear is the potential demand for broadband-connected music players, cameras, game players, dedicated navigation devices or video players. How many different subscriptions are users willing to pay for?

There is some thinking that WiMAX will be used especially heavily by mobile PC customers, as WiMAX is seen as powering a good chunk of the access card business.

“In 2010, the forecasted WiMAX subscriptions in North America will represent two percent of that for mobile 2.5G/3G and 66 percent of the subscriptions for mobile data cards,” say Philip Marshall, Yankee Group vice president, and Tara Howard, Yankee Group analyst.

Yankee Group estimates the number of WiMAX subscribers will increase from 1.3 million to 7.8 million between 2006 and 2011 and that in 2011, 7 million subscribers will be using 802.16e technology. Some percentage of that use will be for fixed broadband access, of course.

Assume such forecasts are correct. The percentage of WiMAX subscribers relative to residential broadband subscribers in the North American market then will increase from 2.2 percent to 7.4 percent between 2006 and 2010. Whatever else one might say about this level of adoption, it certainly doesn’t represent some sort of full-blown challenge to cable modem, DSL or fiber-to-customer access technologies. In fact, WiMAX, if it is adopted as Yankee Group researchers now forecast, will be yet another ancillary or niche form of broadband access.

So in mature markets, the major upside opportunity for WiMAX is expected with mobile personal broadband services, with fixed and portable services gaining moderate early market traction. In some Asian markets, such as Korea, it is conceivable that WiMAX-based mobile broadband could succeed, despite the existence of robust 3G and mobile video alternatives.

Still, the ultimate role of WiMAX in the wireless market is debatable, says a recent Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development report. “Large supporters such as Intel have a vision that WiMAX will change the way we all access the Internet in a matter of years,” says the report.

“Detractors claim that the economics of large-scale WiMAX networks are simply not justified,” the OECD report suggests.

Mobile WiMAX technologies may have the most profound impact in some urban areas because they could fill a connectivity void between 3G data networks and Wi-Fi, though.

Ultimately, this will not be a matter of technology, but of commercial issues and creation of new niches. It's hard to see GSM mobile operators going with WiMAX as a full-blown replacement for 3G, when LTE is coming. And it isn't simply a matter of technical performance. Smooth migration paths are important for large carriers. WiMAX might be too abrupt a transition for many. That might not be the case in undeveloped broadband markets, where a fixed broadband capability is reason enough to deploy it. Mobile broadband is a tougher matter, though.

Right and Wrong, But for the Wrong Reasons

In its story on "Technology in 2008," The Economist makes three predictions, one that will not happen in 2008, one of which could--but won't--happen and one which already happened. The three:
1. surfing will slow
2. surfing will go mobile
3. networks will go open

Oddly, the article predicts the Internet will clog because of spam. The article also says access pipes operate "symmetrically." If only it were so! The article is more apt when it says user-generated content, especially of the video sort, will stress the networks. "Gridlock" is the prediction. But it won't happen. Pipes are being upgraded and "reasonable use" policies are going to change. Traffic shaping is coming and access pipes are getting bigger. "Surfing" isn't going to slow.

The article is correct in noting that wireless access is coming. But the article implies that it is the 700-MHz auctions that will drive the change. Keep in mind, these are predictions for 2008. There is no way any new network using 700-MHz spectrum is going to be operating in 2008. And the tier one mobile providers are doing everything they can to convince more users to buy data access plans, with modest success so far. It's coming, no doubt about it. But it's been coming for years.

Use of data cards, browsing plans and email access plans will grow incrementally, and at a faster rate, to be sure. But there's no "big bang" coming in 2008. The trend began years ago.

In predicting that we'll see more "openness" in mobile networks, the article is on track. Perhaps the article focuses a bit too much on open operating systems and not enough on unlocked phones and access, but of the three predictions, this one is most nearly correct. But a new operating open network in the U.S. market at 700 MHz, in 2008. Absolutely no way.

Web services are going mobile and open, no doubt. But neither trend is specific to 2008.

T-Mobile, 3 Join 3G Networks

T-Mobile and 3 are pooling their U.K. 3G transmission networks, a move expected to reduce mobile tower sites by about 5,000 and save £2 billion in capital spending.

Kevin Russell, 3's UK chief executive, said the joint venture deal includes contingencies should either company be taken over, but both expect it to be a long relationship.

The move is not unprecedented, but still is unusual. Though not dictated by regulatory requirements, the move essentially creates a wholesale entity both retail networks will use to operate their businesses. It is not a structural separation, but certainly a functional separation.

By the end of 2009 the two companies plan to have 13,000 sites, covering 98 percent of the population with a mobile broadband network capable of speeds up to 7.2 Mbps.

Sprint Stands Alone

Now that Verizon Wireless has selected Long Term Evolution as its fourth-generation platform, and if Sprint continues with its WiMAX fourth-generation network platform, prospects for CDMA are dim in the U.S. market.

Of course, there always is the possibility that Sprint might reverse course and abandon WiMAX. But Sprint Nextel at the moment really stands alone in the platform area. It runs the Nextel iDEN network that no other major carrier supports and CDMA-based 3G that Verizon says it will abandon.

It is hard to imagine T-Mobile adopting anything other than LTE, so it appears CDMA is at a deadend in the U.S. market.

3G iPhone Next Year

Make your plans accordingly.

3G GPhone?

Now that Adsense for Mobile is launched in 13 markets, the next issue is whether, or when, Google will launch a branded handset, and whether it actually will bid to own its own U.S. mobile broadband network.

DigiTimes says Google is pondering both EDGE and 3G versions of its branded handset. And DigiTimes says it has been told Google might opt for 3G. A switch from EDGE likely would push back the introduction into the first half of next year instead of this year.

High Tech Computer is said to be the manufacturing contractor for the Gphone.

3G would make lots of sense for a device so Web browsing centric.

Pantech Duo for at&t

Touch screen smart phones aren't universally desired. So at&t is introducing a dual-sliding phone like the Helio Ocean, but using the Windows Mobile 6 operating system. The Pantech Duo uses the 3G network, , a sleek-looking dual-slider that zips along on their 3G HSDPA network, has a 1.3-megapixel camera, and can do push email.

Has Muni Wi-Fi Missed the Window?

Municipal Wi-Fi arguably had a market window within which it had to get traction or lose out to cable companies and especially telcos. With EarthLink now backing out of the remaining deals it originally negotiated, that window could slam shut. That isn't to say there might not be some niches it could fill, but they will be smaller niches.

The higher end part of the fully mobile market will be able to buy fourth generation mobile services, broadband based on 700 MHz spectrum, WiMAX and 3G broadband services. The tethered part of the market will simply find cable modem, Digital Subscriber Line and fiber to home services too attractive to ignore as well. The out of office portion of the market increasingly can use T-Mobile hotspots, hotel Wi-Fi and airport Wi-Fi.

Clearwire and satellite broadband are going to make more sense in most rural markets, though independent ISPs continue to offer basic tethered access using Wi-Fi technologies adapted for more focused line of sight deployment.

Wi-Fi had to get into place before WiMAX arrived, and it looks like it simply is too late to be a sizable mass market access opportunity. That isn't to say hotspots are not a business at all; simply that it is a niche.

That said, sizable niches do exist for providers of satellite broadband in some segments of the market. WildBlue, ViaSat, Gilat and HughesNet prove that the niche exists. And Spaceway might someday create additional niches in the smaller enterprise market as well. Wi-Fi, though perhaps not of the muni variety, might continue to provide such a niche.

DoCoMo 4G: 300 Mbps to your Mobile

NTT DoCoMo is about to embark on an ambitious project that provides cellphone users the ability to achieve speeds of up to 300 Mbps on their handsets by the time 2009 rolls around. That, plus at&t's new positioning as a wireless company with landline assets, plus the fact that global "voice account" installed base and growth are killing landlines, has to be disquieting for lots of us who grew up on the wireline side of the business. Wireless is going to keep changing things more than some might like.

This has to be Good for 3G, 4G

According to a recent survey of about 1,000 enterprises by FreeForm Dynamics, mobile connectivity for PCs appears to be more "mission critical" than remote email access, at least in some markets. North Americans love their Blackbery and other mobile email access, to be sure. But mobile PC access arguably is more important. Forced to choose just one, I'd have to vote for mobile PC access as well, either 3G or 4G.

Making Sense of Mid-Band Ethernet

For the last couple of years we all have been hearing lots about mid-band Ethernet (2 Mbps up to possibly 24 Mbps, with the arguable sweet spot between 2 and 6 Mbps). Suppliers have made special note of the cellular network backhaul opportunity and that frankly has puzzled me a bit, since that particular market segment isn't bigger than the broader metro Ethernet market including enterprises, small and mid-sized businesses and organizations. But Hatteras Network VP Gary Bolton has an answer for that.

The backhaul segment isn't bigger than the others, but it is more urgent for mobile providers as well as the transport providers who provide service with service level agreements, Bolton says. On the mobile side, 3G networks immediately create new bandwidth needs that T1 links aren't well equipped to handle. That's pretty immediate.

Then there are the service providers who sell mobile tower sites connectivity services. And there's urgency there as well. If a circuit goes down, all the timing information at the affected tower can be lost, and then there is the resync time. Mobile carriers hate that.

That typically results in a financial penalty on the transport provider. So the tower backhaul opportunity gets so much attention because both mobile and wireline network providers need a solution right now.

3G Data is About Moving Photos

The single most important 3G mobile data application is sending photos from one mobile to other users.