What's a Google Phone?

Apparently, just about any smart phone with broadband access, according to Financial Times reporters Maija Palmer and Paul Taylor. Google head of mobile operations Vic Gundotra says "it had seen 50 times more searches on Apple‘s iPhone than any other mobile handset."

“We thought it was a mistake and made our engineers check the logs again,” Gundotra says. "If the trend continues and other handset manufacturers follow Apple’s lead in making web access easy, the number of mobile searches will overtake fixed internet searches “within the next several years."

More mobile searches than fixed! I don't know about you, but my sense is that if that volume of activity can happen on most broadband-connected smart phones, Google won't have to worry much about creating a "Google phone," any more than it has to worry about a "Google PC."

Google has never separated out its mobile revenues but Gundotra says the business was growing “above expectations”, both in terms of usage and revenues.

Executives at at&t Wireless have said average revenue per user for iPhone users was nearly double the average, because iPhone plans come with capacious data plans.

Opera Mini, 35 Million Users

In the two years since its worldwide launch, Opera Mini has achieved more than 35 million cumulative users, with 100,000 downloads a day of the mobile phone browser.

"Year of the..."

Be careful when anybody declares this or next year the "year of X." Such predictions inevitably are wrong. That doesn't mean the direction of a trend is wrong, just the timing.

So when Google CEO Eric Schmidt says the recreation of the PC and Internet stories are before us, he's right about the direction. When he says it is "very likely it will happen in the next year," he's most likely wrong about the timing.

The mobile Web will be a "huge revolution", as Schmidt argues. But it isn't going to reach the tipping point next year. Proclamations of the "year of the anything" are universally incorrect.

Yahoo Launches Mobile Developer Program

Yahoo has announced a new mobile homepage and an updated version of Yahoo Go, the company’s downloadable mobile program. It also is launching a developer platform that will allow outside applications to be built for both offerings. And no, Yahoo executives are not pitching the moves as a response to Google's Android and Open Handset Alliance initiatives.

The idea is to make the company’s mobile destinations a one-stop shop for wireless users, in part by by opening them up to third-party applications.

Opera Upgrade

Opera Software has released Opera 9.5 software developer kit for Devices. The release will include a new beta visual effects layer that will give users an emotionally heightened Web experience with fluid transitions, panning, zooming and interactivity.

Opera 9.5 SDK will also include an improved evaluation kit that allow device manufacturers to quickly experience the potential of a product aimed to deliver the latest end-user experiences for Internet browsing, Web applications and Web-based user interfaces.

DoCoMo to Feature Google Apps

Japanese wireless provider DoCoMo, which is said to be in the running to sell the Apple iPhone in the Japanese market, also is moving to feature Google applications including search, Gmail, calendar and photo apps, according to "The Nikkei."

DoCoMo is also said to be weighing development of a next-generation handset using Google's Android OS for mobile devices.

It isn't unusual for mobile providers to feature applications on their phones, of course. What is new: making it easy for end users to access mobile-optimized and formatted third-party Web-based apps.

Yahoo, America Movil 143 Million Sub Mobile Search Deal

Yahoo and Latin America's top mobile phone company America Movil said on Thursday they have struck a deal to provide mobile Web services to 16 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Yahoo's oneSearch service will be the default on America Movil's wireless carriers' portals. Yahoo plans to offer localized versions of oneSearch for each region, and said other Yahoo services may be added in coming months.

The partnership is the largest of the 21 search deals Yahoo has announced this year with mobile phone operators, the Sunnyvale, California company said.

Mexico City-based America Movil has 143 million wireless subscribers. Yahoo's broadest previous deal was with Spain's Telefonica SA, covering up to 100 million subscribers in several European and Latin American markets.

Mobile Web: Not So Useful Yet

The mobile Web might be the future for a goodly portion of user activity in the future. But it isn't quite there yet, Accenture says.

How do People Use Their Smart Phones?

The Nokia Smartphone 360 survey shows that mobile users spend an average of 48 minutes per day on their smart phones, says iLocus. About 12 percent of the time is spent on making voice calls while messaging consumes 37 percent of user time; multimedia 16 percent; PIM 14 percnet; Games four percent; Browsing eight percent.

Browsing accounts for 72 percent of data traffic while entertainment accounted for four percent of the traffic in 2006. That pattern changed in 2007, though, with entertainment grabbing a sharply greater share of time spent with the mobile device.

In 2007, browsing represented 44 percent of time spent; entertainment 26 percent. Messaging increased from 11 percent of the data traffic to 21 percent year over year.

Nokia assumes that messaging traffic increased because users were sending photos using multimedia messaging service, while entertainment traffic increased due to increased podcasting.

Usage also peaks at different times of day. Music usage peaks at around 8 am and then again at 6 pm, suggesting music gets used when users are commuting. Voice usage peaks around 4 pm to 5 pm. Browsing peaks at around 10 pm.

Obviously mobiles are being used at home in the evening for browsing, and the question is why the home PC is not used instead.

Nokia assumes that the mobile phone is using Wi-Fi to download Internet content. According to Nokia, podcasting also is a later-in-the-evening activity.

About 47 percent of outbound calls are made on the move. About 29 percent of outbound calls are made from home. About 24 percent of outbound calls are made from the office.

About 35 percent of packet data is consumed when users are on the move. About 44 percent is used at home and 21 percent is used at the office.

Data traffic use increased from 6 mbytes a month in 2006 to 14 mbytes a month in 2007.

Wi-Fi or wireless LAN connections accounted for 31 percent of data use while mobile access accounted for the rest of use. WiFi sessions were longer with an average session duration of 4.5 minutes.

About 31 percent of the respondents used instant messaging. Some 38 percent of respondents listen to music at least once a week. Some 47 percent of the panellists say that mobile is now their primary music player.

About 59 percent are regular gamers. "Snake" and "Card Deck" are the most popular games. About 81 percent of users regularly use browsers, and the typical user visits two sites a week.

Big Future for Location-Based Services?

Location-based services might not be a big mass market business yet, but it seems almost inevitable that they will be. You don't get the likes of Nokia and Google placing such big bets on location-based services without something developing.

ABI Research expects personal navigation devices (PNDs) will grow to a global sales volume of more than 100 million units by 2011. While dedicated PNDs will remain the preferred form-factor for use in cars, GPS will increasingly be an expected ingredient in handsets, portable media players (PMPs), ultra-mobile PCs (UMPCs), and other mobile devices, ABI forecasts.

Handset-based GPS will grow strongly in North America, reaching a sales volume of 21 million units by 2012, ABI Research forecasts.

In-Stat reaches very similar overall conclusions, though it adds digital cameras and even handheld games to the mix of devices expected to include GPS. In-Stat predicts that sales of mobile devices with integrated GPS will grow from 180 million units in 2007 to 720 million units in 2011.

In fact, mapping-related and location-related Web apps might be more commercially attractive than entertainment was expected to be. For starters, mobile Web advertising revenues in 2011 are expected to be dominated by Web and search. In fact, Strategy Analytics estimates that about 76 percent of all mobile advertising will be generated either by Web apps or search.

All of that dovetails with Google’s thinking about the advertising potential of the mobile Web. And the point is that if consumers find location-based Web apps attractive, and there is a robust advertising support model, carriers are bound to see big increases in broadband service plans, even if they don’t see similarly robust demand for walled-garden enhanced services.

Orange UK: Still Looking for Killer App

Mobile Web appears to be the most-frequently-used mobile app, according to new data from Orange U.K.(France Telecom).

Orange U.K. has 1.4 million broadband wireless customers, but the single most-used application is text messaging, which doesn't require broadband access. Orange U.K. customers send or receive about 71 text messages a day (more than 2,000 a month) but just about 4.3 Multimedia Message Service (MMS) messages a day (129 a month) for users who take advantage of MMS, and most do not.

About 58 percent of Orange U.K. customers can use MMS and six-month usage growth was 37 percent.

In the mobile search area, Orange saw about 250,000 repeat visitors each day, on a base of 1.4 million users. One might therefore estimate that about 18 percent of the base uses mobile search daily.

Orange users downloaded about 7,680 games a day across the user base, up about 3.4 percent over the last six months. Music downloads grew about 15 percent over the last six months to about 3,280 a day.

Orange mobile TV usage is said to be growing at double the management forecast, but one suspects the numbers still are fairly low, as the actual numerical results were not released. Mobile video clip downloads averaged 5,211 a day.

Downloads of logos, wallpapers and pictures averaged 3,233 a day. On the other hand, users are uploading about 23,333 photos a day to online photo albums.

So far, the story would seem to be consistent with what many would have expected: lots of niche applications but no single “killer app” beyond text messaging, which doesn’t require a 3G network. Orange U.K., like other mobile service providers, remains in a “throw it on the wall and see what sticks” mode, watching to see what apps are most compelling to users of 3G services.

So far, no other mobile carrier has discovered the elusive application that users intuitively understand and that is capable of driving 3G access. Right now, that’s the point: keep experimenting.

So far, one would have to conclude that mobile Web usage is the leading app, in terms of daily hits.

Android: It's the Business Models

The most important thing about Android, the open mobile operating system and platform sponsored by Google, is arguably not the technology or the implications for handset cost: it's the development of business models.

One might think: "well, this is open source, so we will look for business models that are like the existing models for open source." But that's probably not going to be the case. Today's revenue model for open source is payment for enhancements, support and training.

To some extent, the business model is implicit rather than explicit. If I am a hardware or software applications provider, I simply use Asterisk because it is a lower-cost way of implementing something that an end user actually buys, even it the thing being bought essentially is a "legacy" requirement.

Voice mail, phone system or messaging platform are examples. In those cases, the operating system is an input to a business model, but not the model, which is the same one that existed before the open source tool was available.

Translated into a mobile market, it looks different. Open source will not do much, in and of itself, to lower the cost of a handset. So open source doesn't necessarily mean "cheap or free handset."

One can assume handset makers using Android will stabilize their versions so there is little need for third party end user support. That is a bug, not a feature, in the mobile end user world.

And since the whole idea is "easy to use," there shouldn't be much of a market created for training people how to use, develop, maintain and upgrade their operating systems. End users don't want to do that.

Assuming Android devices are used on existing networks (the 700-MHz C band network remains a bit of a wild card), the pricing models for data access are relatively affordable already, so it isn't clear whether there is immediate impact on data plan pricing either.

So consider Android a better way to help create a mobile Web business. The mobile phone business is built on recurring payment of access fees for voice, text and data access. The mobile Web just assumes access.

So the revenue model must begin where the Web itself begins. And that means advertising, to the extent that features and content have to be monetized directly. Of course, there's also content and applications given away for free in hopes that the attention will lead to support for some other business model, be that public relations, consulting, marketing, software or what have you. In that case a content provider doesn't necessarily require a revenue model.

But that's not what service providers, device manufacturers and application providers are looking at. The issue is revenue. And from where I sit, that means a media model.

The media model includes "for fee" and "for free" services and content, with greater or lesser degrees of advertising support. That means "aggregating eyeballs" and "aggregating highly-detailed information about the owners of those eyeballs" and "tracking the behavior of those people." That makes the advertising model quite valuable.

In the mobile arena, valuable as in "can I entice you to visit Starbucks right now; it is around the corner?" Valuable as in "are you hungry and a lover of good Thai food? You are half a block away."

Some will speculate about whether an entirely ad-supported model is conceivable. Well, it's conceivable, but not likely. Broadband access isn't free. But that isn't the point. If the value is high enough, a reasonable fee is not a barrier to usage.

Android is more likely to have an impact in making the mobile Web, and applications built on the mobile Web, far easier to use and vastly richer in functionality.

That's a hugely important and economically significant activity. But I don't think Android is about "free phone calls" or "free Web access" or "free phones," as many either think or hope for. Rich applications will be reward enough for users, who are quite capable of figuring out a value-for-money proposition. Android is about the promise of a mobile Web so useful we won't mind paying access fees to use it.

The one exception is that some users will appreciate "sometimes" being able to use Wi-Fi hot spots to access applications. This is a subset of users who choose not to pay a recurring fee for fully-mobile access, and want to rely on Wi-Fi for all of their connectivity.

Then there are users who occasionally will be happy to have Wi-Fi access for signal strength reasons, even if they are comfortable with a fully-mobile broadband connection.

Still, it seems likely that the early pull of Android applications is going to be location-based. "Where am I? How do I get there? Where can I find it? I didn't know that was on sale. So that's where you are."

Ad-supported phone calls, devices or access might have some role to play, sometimes. But I doubt that's the big impact.

What Google Wants

Confused about what Google really wants in the mobility space, and in particular what it wants from the 700 MHz spectrum auctions? The simple answer is that Google is for mobile what the Internet was to telecom service providers: an alternate communications medium whose value does not hinge on access, but on applications.

Wireless service providers will fight Google without quarter for the same reason they learned to loathe the Internet: it is difficult for them to extract revenue when value lies in applications not dependent on recurring payments for access.

That doesn't mean Verizon and at&t, in particular, won't try to make a business out of it. After all, despite the margins, despite the gross revenue implications, both are fierce competitors in the broadband access business. But the tack will be to stop it if possible, slow it where possible, but adapt if necessary.

But Google is not the only force pushing against the old order. iPhone, for example, seems to be the first of any number of approaches to thinking about what a mobile handset is, what an operating system is, what a platform is and where value can be extracted in the ecosystem.

As Skype and UK cellphone operator 3 reportedly are working on a new mobile handset that promises to "make Internet calls mobile," rumors continue to swirl about a possible Gphone or Google phone. Nokia is rolling out N95 series devices that also raise the question of where the leverage lies: operating system, user interface, handset, application or extended application ecosystem.

It’s an important question. Remember back when people seriously thought the browser would somehow translate into “ownership” of the user? That largely proved incorrect.

But operating system ownership has proven a more durable lock on value and customer ownership. Facebook might be showing the power of the platform. But the iPhone seems to suggest the power of the device itself. In short, getting the answer right might confer genuinely significant leverage in the mobile business.

Much of the impetus for thinking about such things comes on the heels of rumors about a Google phone, Google mobile operating system or mobile platform. While the thrusts are not mutually exclusive, the strategic approach Google takes conceivably could redefine much of the existing mobile business.

The difficulty of pinning down the likely thrust is difficult, as Google has to be working on a number of aspects, all at the same time. It must create a mobile interface to the Internet while supporting voice services not significantly inferior to those handsets offer today.

That means Google has to convert the Internet experience for the phone and create or enable a suite of related applications and applets that all work smoothly together and share data.

Then it has to create awareness of some mobile features users didn’t know they wanted, such as location-aware services and features.

All of that means an Internet-connected device supporting voice, instant messaging, Web browsing, search, document storage, retrieval and creation, email, storing and playing entertainment. The applications must blend “knowing you are available” to “knowing where you are.”

Google has to do all that and also make the PC and mobile experiences similar and intuitive. And after all that is done, has to create a business process for supporting all of that with an advertising revenue model.

Of course, Nokia, Apple, Microsoft and Samsung—among others—will try to do the same thing, at some point. Unless it can be done, Microsoft will have a tough time making 25 per cent of its revenues, or about $14 billion, from advertising in the relatively near future, as it says it will.

The issue, perhaps, is how many of these sorts of things have to be handled by the handset. How “skinny” can the device be and still provide a reasonable user experience?

And how much does an actual handset matter, if a widely-distributed reference model can be propagated? Still, as Apple has proved time and again, a tightly-coupled hardware and software approach can yield outsized results in the user experience area.

Many argue that Google will want to avoid getting entangled in the consumer electronics business. True enough. Others make the same argument about any possible plans to bid for its own spectrum.

But Google executives have said mobile offers Google the biggest possible opportunities. If that is true, stretching into unfamiliar areas might be the best way to dominate the new business.

It’s just an opinion, but an “operating system” approach offers the least risk but the least reward. Devices and the ecosystem are much more risky, but offer greater reward. And since Google is sure to encounter resistance from the established wireless carriers, owning its own network might be the only way to get rapid adoption.

So that’s what Google is up to: creating a mobile broadband version of the open Internet.

Enterprise Software Not Where It's At Anymore

The future of enterprise computing will draw from what is being developed on the consumer side, says Paul Otellini, Intel CEO. "Consumers today are the number one users of semiconductors; they passed over IT and government in 2004."

"Prior to that period, most people developing silicon in the industry were focused on the main market: the enterprise and IT," says Otellini. "Today, most of us are focused on the consumer market as drivers."

"Not so long ago, if you were technology-oriented and wanted to do something innovative and cool that would make you rich, you wrote a new piece of enterprise software," he says. "Or you came up with a new design for a server. Or you figured out a way to link business people with their offices while on the road."

That's just not the case anymore. Innovation is coming from the consumer Web.

Android Web Browser Renders Well

The Android Web browser seems to render Web pages nicely, based on these screenshots from Google Operating System.

Google Tailors Search

One of the best things about Web services is that user experiences can be personalized and customized . So it is that Google uses many signals to rank search results and in some cases filters returns based on a user's location, device or preferences.

You've probably noticed that hyphenation doesn't limit results. "T-Mobile" and "TMobile" results both come up. Helpful since hyphenation conventions vary from one document and user to the next. However, typing "+TMobile" only brings up results that do not have the hyphenation.

Google defaults to eliminating duplicate search results, which normally is desirable. There be some cases where a particular search might return multiple results from a single Web page, and a user might want those results. Typing "&filter=0" at the end of Google's URL will disable that function.

I find it useful that Google senses when I am searching from a mobile and formats the display accordingly. If, by mistake, you are searching from a PC and get the mobile version by accident (I can only say it can happen; it has never happened to me), use the "http://www.google.com/webhp" URL.

Personally, I prefer the localized version. But if you want the global version, go to
"http://www.google.com/ncr".

To get more targeted results, type "&gl" at the end of the Google URL.

Mobile Web More Like TV?

WhatsOpen.com offers a Web application that shows users nearby stores and operating hours. That's the sort of thing that a mobile advertising strategy can build off of. It also suggests something else about the nature of mobile Web services optimized for handhelds.

To wit, given the greater difficulty of interacting with the device, compared to a PC, maybe large portions of the experience need to be more like linear TV, as heretical as that may seem. Push useful data to me. Not all the time because that kills battery performance. But sense when it is likely I am looking at the screen. Show me something interesting.

Combine Real Simple Syndication with streaming. Maybe not streaming video, maybe streaming text. Adjust the feed based on my location. People talk about the difference between a lean-back experience and a lean-forward experience. Maybe we need to work on a stand-up experience: screen-based information and entertainment adapted for a user that is standing up and moving.

What Android Must Do

"I think for the Google platform to really be a game-changer it's going to have to offer more than just an open-source operating system for a mobile phone," says Kay Johansson, MobiTV CEO. "It will have to create mobile Internet devices that happen to make phone calls."

If Google ever does decide to bid for 700 MHz spectrum, with or without other partners, the network will be shaped by that same requirement. In fact, Google might have an opportunity to consider a different approach to what a mobile network looks like. Such a network theoretically might provide broadband coverage anyplace people are walking, spottier coverage in other places. That was the original thinking behind the "Personal Communications Service" (PCS) spectrum that instead wound up being deployed as 2-GHz cellular instead.

That might wind up being what happens again. Today, it is the troubled muni Wi-Fi approach that most resembles the old PCS idea. The Fon, T-Mobile Hotspot or Boingo hotspot approach offers less coverage than the original PCS concept called for.

In fact, the only reason one would logically want to build a new network on anything other than macrocells, incorporating Wi-Fi in some way, is that it might be possible to get a network up and running faster than if a traditional macrocell approach is used. One already would begin with fairly ubiquitous coverage in homes and offices and a reasonable hotspot overlay. Macrocell coverage probably still would be needed for outdoor coverage.

Still, an ad-driven business model ultimately could be quite do-able if one generally assumed in-home and at-office coverage, with fairly dense coverage in downtown cores and shopping malls, augmented by lighter coverage other places. There are some drawbacks, especially when the device is used in phone mode, since coverage would tend to be the reverse of what they now encounter. That is to say, indoor coverage would be better than outdoor coverage.

The point is that if the exercise is to build an optimal mobile Web network, one might have different choices. One of the bigger advantages would come from crafting a network that could be built at far-less capital intensity than a typical 3G mobile network. That would fit with the general theme of creating less-expensive handsets and service as well, so ads would produce a healthy revenue model. It's just a thought.

HP Enables Web Services for Mobile Carriers

Illustrating the future direction of mobile and some wired services as well, Hewlett-Packard has unveiled a Service Delivery Platform (SDP) 2.0 to help wireless service providers take advantage of third party applications. SDP 2.0 allows multiple services to communicate with underlying wireless or wired networks, third-party applications, and Web 2.0-based mashups.

Operators can offer converged services that blend telecom, Web, and IT resources, such as music, video, and business services that personalize content delivery.

"The business problem for operators is that many of the services they deliver today come from third parties," says Peter Dragunas, HP Communications, Media and Entertainment group VP.

Basically, SDP 2.0 takes telecommunications assets and turns them into Web services.

If you think carriers won't be developing most of the revenue-generating new services that are coming, then it is imperative that carrier platforms easily integrate Web services. HP's platform helps them do that. What's important here is the signal about direction.

Android Creates Instant Developer Community

One of the big problems a communications service provider faces is how to leverage the creativity of the Web and apps community to drive service innovation which carriers frankly are ill equipped to undertake. Android basically solves that problem. Developers respond to big opportunities and that is what Android now represents: a chance to develop apps for mobile operators representing 40-some-odd percent of the U.S. mobile population, virtually all of China, one of the fastest-growing global markets, plus the two dominant providers in the trendy Japanese market plus Spain, Germany and Italy, just for starters.

That's an instant and massive developer community at a time when every major communications service provider needs such a developer community allied to it. Google may well disrupt. It also is going to help carriers move ahead on the innovation front in a way impossible on their own.

To the extent that most innovations and applications are going to come from the independent developer community--not from the carriers--this is a very big deal indeed.

That isn't to underplay the role played by developers working for Microsoft or Symbian, either. It's just that leveraging the Linux community adds even more intellectual capital, and capital that heretofore hadn't been deployed to enrich mobile Web apps.