6 Million Homes Now Use Wireless As Only Broadband Service

By the end of 2011, six million U.S. households will depend on a wireless or mobile platform (including 3G or 4G) as their only means of accessing the Internet, according to Strategy Analytics.

That means seven percent of U.S. homes are wireless-only for broadband, up about 430,000 homes over 2010 levels.

These “mobile-only” customers typically connect to broadband using 3G or 4G-enabled smartphones or PC dongles, and are unable or unwilling to use a wired broadband service such as cable, DSL or fiber, Strategy Analytics says.

The firm says there are two primary markets for such consumers. First, there are users in remote or underserved areas where dependable fixed broadband is unavailable. Secondly, there are cost-conscious casual users who use relatively small amounts of data, and for whom mobile data rates are ‘good enough.

Strategy Analytics forecasts that cable operators will claim a bit more than 50 percent of U.S. household broadband connections over the next five years, while telco-provided Digital Subscriber Line subscriptions will gradually decline in favor of fiber to home and mobile-only connections. 6 Million Homes Now Using Wireless As Only Broadband Service

Steve Jobs Originally Wanted iPhone on its own Network

When Steve Jobs first dreamed up the iPhone with his team at Apple, he didn't want it to run on AT&T's network. He wanted to create his own network, says venture capitalist John Stanton, who spent a good deal of time with the late Apple CEO during the phone's development period.

Jobs wanted to replace carriers completely, Stanton says, instead using the unlicensed Wi-Fi spectrum. Jobs would not have been the first executive to think about how Wi-Fi could literally replace use of mobile networks for mobile voice and data. There was a fair amount of such speculation in the late 1990s and earlier 2000s. Wi-fi for mobile service?

By about 2005, most began to see Wi-Fi as a complementary access alternative to mobile service. Wi-Fi becomes complementary Republic Wireless, the new mobile service provider, is the latest example of that line of thinking. 


For ubiquity, no service provider yet has shown an ability to completely displace mobile networks. 
On the other hand, for consumers, most important personal devices are equipped, or increasingly will be equipped, with Wi-Fi capability. 


So even though it remains a challenge to design a mobile phone's connectivity around Wi-Fi-only connections, the in-home environment is becoming a "Wi-Fi mostly" sort of environment. 

Steve Jobs wanted iPhone on its own network

E-Reader Sales Grow Connected Devices Opportunity

A new report by analyst firm Juniper Research forecasts that e-reader shipments will reach 67 million by 2016, nearly triple the 25 million devices the company expects to reach the market in 2011.

While this is less than half the 55.2 million tablets that will be shipped this year, the price of the market-leading Kindle has fallen significantly (from $349 to $79) since it was launched, and electronic ink technology will ensure that the device continues to carve out a niche for itself in the wireless device ecosystem. eReader Shipments to Reach 67 million by 2016

Separately, Machina Research predicts wireless wide-area connected tablets and e-readers will grow from 66 million in 2011 to 230 million in 2020. Mobile service providers gain two ways from e-reader usage. There is the business-to-business revenue contributed by the e-reader partners, who use mobile networks to deliver content to the readers. 


There also is end user revenue supplied by connected devices. If half of the 2020 devices are e-readers, and just 15 percent of e-readers actually are mobile broadband connected, that is 17.25 million incremental broadband accounts in service. If, by 2020, half of the e-readers are capable of network connections, and are used as part of "family"-style mobile data plans that represent incremental revenue, then as many as 57.5 million new broadband accounts could be in service. 

Such trends are directly important for mobile service providers as many of those devices are equipped to work on mobile networks, and therefore represent a new class of devices that can be converted into new and incremental mobile broadband accounts. Greater use of Wi-Fi-only devices has relevance for fixed-network broadband providers to the extent that use of such devices increases the value of a fixed broadband connection.

Tablets are Untethered, not Mobile Devices

Ross Rubin, executive director of industry analysis for NPD Group, says the reality is that a lot of tablet usage seems to be at home or in Wi-Fi hotspot areas. tablets are untethered, not mobile

"Consumers are maybe reluctant to pay $15 or $20 a month when they may just need cellular access for a few hours," Rubin says. "Obviously, for some time there's been a lot of discussion about per-person billing versus device-based billing, and the tablet situation has really made that more of a real issue versus a theoretical issue."

In other words, if mobile service providers want to encourage more tablet use on mobile broadband networks, they probably will have to start offering the equivalent of mobile broadband "family plans" now common for voice and text messaging services.

ABI Research reports that less than half of tablets actually ship with a cellular modem, and less than half of those are ever actually activated after shipment.

Device Usage Profiles: "Tethering" is a Big Deal

If you want to know why “tethering” of mobile devices is such a big issue for mobile service providers, consider that mobile PCs, including those which might be tethered to a Mi-Fi device or use a smart phone’s Wi-Fi hotspot feature, can use between 1 GByte and 7 Gbytes worth of data each month, according to new data provided by Ericsson.



A smart phone, by way of contrast, might use about 500 Mbytes a month. So demand-sensitive mobile networks might well be leery of encouraging use of the network by devices that create an order of magnitude greater demand than a typical smart phone.



At some level, even though mobile service providers might like to have the additional revenue and accounts mobile PC connections represent, it is inherently more difficult to maintain a user experience free of cap overage fees, which irritate users.



You might argue that service providers can simply offer bigger buckets of usage, but some might argue that will confuse many users.



Mobile PCs have the highest average monthly traffic volume per subscription over 3G networks (global average at 1 Gbyte to 2 GBytes), followed by tablets at 250 Mbytes to 800 MBytes. Smart phones typically use only 80 Mbytes to  600 MBytes.



The point is that a 4-Gbyte or 5-Gbyte data plan so outstrips typical usage of smart phone and tablet users that there is little chance most people would ever be faced with an unpleasant overage charge. That clearly is not the case for PCs connected to mobile networks, which rather easily can consume all of a 4-Gbyte or 5-Gbyte data plan.



Average monthly data traffic varies significantly between different types of devices, according to a new Ericsson report on mobile bandwidth and trends.



Another observation might be that “overage” and “breakage” are significant contributors to mobile broadband service profit margins. Ericsson reports that “breakage” (paid for, but unused megabytes in a data plan) ranges from a low of about 15 percent for users of 1-gigabyte plans up to about 60 percent for data plans of 15 Gbytes to 20 Gbytes.



Also, “overage” (use of more data than a user has paid for as part of the device data plan) ranges from about 30 percent for users of 1-Gbyte plans to about 12 percent for users of the the 15-Gbyte to 20-Gbyte plans.

Smart Phone Data Consumption Grows 427% on "Three" Network

U.K. mobile service provider Three says 97 percent of all the traffic on its network is data.

Also, since June 2010 and September 2011, there has been a 427 percent increase in data usage on Three, by smart phone customers.

  Data is 97% of Three traffic

How Much Will Tablets Drive Mobile Bandwidth Consumption?

Goldman Sachs figures tablet data consumption is increasing by 30 percent per year and by 2020 will account for 17 percent of all mobile data demand.

“We expect global tablet sales to grow over 300 percent through 2012,” Goldman’s analysts say. “Our forecast implies a 42 percent compound annual growth rate from 2010 to 2020 in network-activated tablet subscribers (tablets that actually subscribe to a wireless data plan) with monthly data usage assumed to grow at the rate of 30 percent per year from 1.5 GBytes month to over 20 GBytes per month in 2020,” Goldman analysts say.

That implies some future adjustment of mobile broadband plans, which at present tend to cap consumption at 4Gbytes to 10 Gbytes a month, with an average of about 5 Gbytes. Though it seems unlikely that smart phone consumption will reach those levels, tablet users using mobile broadband connections might easily exceed 5 Gbytes a month, if the Goldman estimates are correct.

How Much Will Tablets Drive Mobile Bandwidth Consumption?

Smartphones and Tablets Drive Nearly 7 Percent of Total U.S. Digital Traffic - comScore, Inc

Wi-Fi Offload podcast

Mobile phones and tablets now represent 6.8 percent of U.S. traffic in August 2011, with approximately two thirds of that traffic coming from mobile phones.

And users are shifting 37 percent of their mobile device access to fixed connections, using Wi-Fi. The percentage of usage grew nearly three percentage points in just three months.

In August 2011, nearly 10 percent of traffic from tablets used a mobile network connection, a fact of some importance for mobile service providers, since that means additional revenue.

Today, half of the total U.S. mobile population uses mobile media. The mobile media user population (those who browse the mobile web, access applications, or download content) grew 19 percent in the past year to more than 116 million people at the end of August 2011.

Smartphones, Tablets Drive 7% of U.S. Traffic

Mobile Broadband Faster than Fixed Line?

There is an interesting bit of data in the latest report from Akamai on global Internet usage. The global average fixed-line connection speed was 2.6 Mbps, and the global average peak connection speed was 11.4 Mbps.

Looking at mobile broadband connections, average connection speeds on known mobile providers ranged from 5.3 Mbps down to 209 kbps, while “average” peak connection speeds ranged from 23.4 Mbps down to 1.2 Mbps.



The interesting observation is that wireless broadband has the higher peak speeds, about double that of fixed line connections, with a variable “average” speed that in some cases also is twice as high as fixed-line connections, though such sessions are highly variable. When mobile broadband is slow, it is an order of magnitude slower than fixed line connections. Global broadband speeds

Is "4G Plus DirecTV" a Viable Alternative to FiOS?

Verizon Wireless seems to be cooking up an out of market “video plus broadband” plan, working with DirecTV. During its recent quarterly earnings report, Fran Shammo, Verizon Communications EVP said that the company was working on such an effort.

“You're going to see that come in the fourth quarter with the what we now call the Cantenna, which is not a commercial name obviously, but it's the antenna that we actually trialed with DIRECTV, which was extremely successful,” said Shammo.

Some will legitimately wonder whether that approach might even wind up being used in some Verizon markets where FiOS has not already started to be deployed. LTE plus DirecTV

There are some significant Verizon markets including cities like Boston, Buffalo, N.Y, Baltimore and Alexandria, Va. where FiOS construction has not started.

The obvious new question is the rational approach Verizon should take to upgrading its fixed-line network. There isn’t much doubt about optical access media being more resistant to some weather-related impairments than copper networks, nor is there much doubt that new optical facilities cost less to maintain than older copper networks.

But the business question is how much incremental investment ought to be made in the fixed network,  if video and broadband services can be provided using the wireless network. One might rationally argue that the cost of maintaining the fourth generation wireless network is lower than the cost of maintaining the FiOS network.

Obviously, if that is true then the avoided capital investment in new optical facilities is significant as well. That isn’t to argue that fixed and wireless networks are in any way equivalent in terms of absolute bandwidth. But there is a financial question.

If the expected revenue and operating cost advantage of FiOS, compared to 4G, does not provide the optimal financial return, then a wireless solution might be the most-rational way to invest new capital.

The problem is that voice is a negligible contributor to incremental revenue on a FiOS network, while video, though an important contributor of revenue, is not such a great contributor to profits. That leaves broadband, and revenue upside is tough.

That is not to say fiber to home facilities are unimportant, merely to say that they might not be the best use of capital for a provider that also is investing heavily in mobile broadband.

In fact, there is an interesting bit of data in the latest report from Akamai on global Internet usage. The global average fixed-line connection speed was 2.6 Mbps, and the global average peak connection speed was 11.4 Mbps.

Looking at mobile broadband connections, average connection speeds on known mobile providers ranged from 5.3 Mbps down to 209 kbps, while “average” peak connection speeds ranged from 23.4 Mbps down to 1.2 Mbps.

The interesting observation is that wireless broadband has the higher peak speeds, about double that of fixed line connections, with a variable “average” speed that in some cases also is twice as high as fixed-line connections, though such sessions are highly variable. When mobile broadband is slow, it is an order of magnitude slower than fixed line connections. Global broadband speeds

Mobile Broadband is Ramping Fast

Smart phones now seem to be driving mobile broadband activity, not PC dongles. 


“We’re in the middle of one of those once-in-every 10-20 year shifts,” says Mary Meeker, Kleiner Perkins partner. “Mobile connectivity is at the center of that, and mobile devices just nearly outshipped PCs.”


Mobile broadband growing fast

Moble Data Traffic Doubles in 12 Months

Mobile data traffic continues to grow, doubling from the second quarter of 2010 to the second quarter of 2011, according to findings of a new measurement from Ericsson.

The second quarter of 2011 saw eight percent growth, Ericsson says. 

Ericsson says an active smart phone user generates more than 1 MBytes worth of traffic each day. In North America, high-end smart phones generate twice the traffic than comparable smartphones at the operators analyzed in Asia and Europe, Ericsson  says.


The findings are based on Ericsson mobile broadband measurements during the second quarter of 2011 at four different operators in mature markets in Europe, Asia and North America. 

Wireless Broadband Incremental or a Substitute?

A recent analysis suggests more people are getting their broadband from wireless providers in the Twin Cities and fewer are using traditional services like cable and DSL, according to a new study by St. Paul-based ID Insight, which found that wireless broadband (both from mobile companies and the Minneapolis Wi-Fi network operated by US Internet rose 7.5 percent in the 12 months ending in March. Wireless broadband taking bigger slice of local market

To be careful, it actually isn't so clear whether what the data shows is simply that more people are buying mobile broadband plans, which is largely additive to the universe of broadband connections, or that people are starting to substitute wireless for fixed connections (which some of us do). 


To see what was going on with wireless Internet access, compared to fixed-line access, ID Insight used "Broadband Scout" to look at access trends over the last couple of quarters. "What we found was that internet transactions through a wireless device increased by a factor of over 200 percent, whereas Cable and DSL diminished by a few percentage points." Wireless access grows fast

In and of itself, that simply means people are using their smart phones to do things on the Internet more than they used to do. The reported decrease in fixed network access would be expected to dropk as a percentage of total, if wireless usage is growing so fast. 

The study shows transactions on Comcast's network was 37.6 percent of total and CenturyLink represented 27.8 percent of total. Both of those providers saw their share decline slightly, but again, it might be expected if wireless has grown so fast. 


Wireless broadband, which includes the cellular providers and the Minneapolis Wi-Fi network, ranked third (16.6 percent, or about 152,000 households). The number for wireless customers does not include Wi-Fi networks inside homes.

Among Twin Cities wireless customers, about 131,000 appear to be smartphone, laptop or tablet computers users with data plans. The other 21,000 wireless customers belong to the Minneapolis Wi-Fi network, said Joe Caldwell, the CEO of USI Wireless of Minnetonka, which runs the network. Wireless grows

"Over the past few months and quarters the notion of where my broadband connection resides has shifted, at least for me," says ID Insight's Adam Elliott, company president. "A few short months ago, I would have told you that my broadband provider was Comcast, as that was who provided internet access to my home."

"A few short months later, I am not so sure," says Elliott. "A few months ago, I bought one of those funky new Android smart phones on Sprint's 4G network. I am now seeing download speeds of 3 Mbps to 6 Mbps that exceeded my basic Comcast cable connection that was coming in around 3 Mbps." http://factactsolutions.blogspot.com/

Still, it is not possible to say with certainty that users are dropping fixed connections and relying solely on wireless broadband. 


Other studies likewise have shown growing use of mobile broadband, but that does not, in and of itself, suggest anything definite about whether the usage is complementary to fixed line access, or a substitute. 

Early data from YouGov’s new “DongleTrack” study shows that 10 percent of respondents have used a dongle (USB modem) or a datacard to access the Internet outside the home or work. A mobile phone has been used as an Internet access device by more than one fifth of the online population (21 percent). 

As often is the case, marketers will be looking at younger users for an indication that end user preferences could be changing. In that regard, younger users seem more willing to use wireless broadband services. U.K. trends


The study suggests that 69 percent of respondents under 25 have used wireless broadband access, about 67 percent of those 25 to 34, and 65 percent of those who live in London. 


For almost one in seven users of mobile broadband (14 percent), the use of a dongle or datacard is their only Internet access method. This figure rises to 21 percent of males, 31 percent of 18 to 24 year olds and over one third of Londoners (34 percent).

The study suggests that although much wireless broadband is complementary and supplemental to fixed broadband access, there is a significant adoption of wireless broadband as a substitute for fixed services. 

Mobile Broadband Tops Fixed for First Time in Australia

Mobile wireless internet (excluding mobile handset) connections (44 percent) now exceed Digital Subscriber Line (DSL) connections (41 percent) in Australia.

Mobile wireless (excluding mobile handset connections) was the fastest growing internet access technology in actual numbers, increasing from 4.2 million in December 2010 to 4.8 million in June 2011.

That doesn't mean mobile and fixed service are equivalent. People use the connections in different ways. But one does wonder how fixed network demand will be affected as more mobile devices require a broadband connection. At some point, many household will find themselves paying more for mobile broadband than for fixed broadband. For many households, this already is the case.

The point is that demand for more-expensive fixed connections will be dampened as more consumers find they must spend on mobile broadband. There is, after all, only so much any household will be able and willing to spend on broadband, overall. 

Mobile now dominates Australian broadband

Mobile Broadband Will Drive U.S. Telecom Revenue 2011 to 2016

Mobile data will be the largest contributor to U.S. telecom service provider growth over the next five years, says Pyramid Research. That not-unexpected assessment is simple recognition of the fact that growth must be driven by services that have obvious demand drivers, fit network and other organizational capabilities are not already fairly saturated and highly competitive. Right now, in the U.S. market, mobile broadband to support smart phones and tablet devices is the only clear service that fits all the parameters.

Voice services are expected to dwindle, on both the fixed and mobile networks. There will be growth in the video entertainment, VoIP and high-speed access segments, but at modest rates. 

The U.S. telecom market generated $367 billion in service revenue in 2010, an increase of 3.1 percent over 2009.

"We expect the market to grow at a 3.1 percent compound annual growth rate over 2011 to 2016, reaching $443 billion in 2016. U.S. telecom revenue forecast

While it was the fourth-largest service segment in 2010 (after mobile voice, fixed voice and pay-TV), Pyramid Research projects mobile broadband will have a 12.7 percent CAGR over the 2011 to 2016 period.

That means that mobile broadband services will overtake mobile voice, fixed voice and entertainment video  to become the single largest revenue stream in the U.S. telecom industry by 2016.

As demand for fixed circuit-switched voice decreases, fixed VoIP will increase, growing at a 12.2 percent CAGR from 2011 to 2016. But VoIP still will be the smallest of all revenue streams over the forecast period. There might continue to be some small dial-up Internet access revenue, but it will be negligible. 

New Verizon Policy on Heavy Users, Congested Towers

Verizon Wireless has instituted a new network management policy that some will call “throttling,” while others might say simply represents a more-nuanced way of managing network congestion.

The new plan affects what Verizon says is about five percent of Verizon’s user base, specifically those users of 3G services that use 2 Gbytes of more of data each month, from congested cell sites. The rules do not apply to users of the new 4G network, though. The easiest solution is simply to use 4G. It’s a better experience anyway. New Verizon usage scheme

One suspects that users are capable of making rational choices about their services, and also will rapidly adopt the “default to Wi-Fi strategy.” Most people already seem capable of quickly grasping the advantages.

Some 64 percent of smart phone consumers surveyed by Devicescape use Wi-Fi hotspots at least once a day. Most smart phone owners who use Wi-Fi also use it on the road.  The study showed 90 percent of those users report accessing Wi-Fi both at home and on the road. Smart phone users use Wi-Fi often

Of those who use Wi-Fi outside their home or office, most (24 percent) connect at a cafe or coffee shop, 17.3 percent at a hotel, and 15 percent at a school campus. See Facing data caps, consumers keep turning to Wi-Fi.

Historically, mobiles haven’t been used excessively for data connections. Average mobile data consumption increased from about 90 MBytes per month during the first quarter of 2009 to 298 MBytes per month during the first quarter of 2010, according to Nielsen.

This represents a year-over-year increase of approximately 230 percent, though.  While this increase is substantial, in the first quarter of 2009 more than a third of smart phone subscribers used less than 1 MByte of data per month and usage has dropped to a quarter in the first quarter of 2010.

About 20 million current smart phone users are hardly using any data.

But there is a reason frameworks for managing bandwidth use are important. As mobile data consumption continues to grow, the usage pattern is starting to resemble fixed-line patterns, and that is a problem for all mobile service providers, as there is not now, and never will be any way for mobile providers to match the bandwidth, or cost of bandwidth, that a fixed network provider can offer.

There is a telling statistic in Cisco's Visual Networking Index, namely that as mobile broadband users have rapidly grown, their usage pattern rapidly has assumed the familiar pattern seen in the fixed-line part of the business.

Consider heavy usage patterns. The top one percent of mobile data subscribers generate over 20 percent of mobile data traffic, down from 30 percent just a year ago. That 29-point swing in just 12 months suggests that as more "typical" users adopt mobile broadband, they bring behaviors much different from those of early mobile broadband adopters, namely less-intensive consumption.

Cisco also reports that mobile data traffic over the last year also now matches the 1:20 ratio that has been true of fixed networks for several years (one percent of users generate or consume 20 percent of total transferred bytes). Visual networking index

Similarly, the top 10 percent of mobile data subscribers now generate approximately 60 percent of mobile data traffic, down from 70 percent at the beginning of the year.

All of those instances of "reversion toward the mean" are driven by the broader adoption by "typical" users of smart phone service. That noted, average smart phone usage doubled in 2010. The average amount of traffic per smart phone in 2010 was 79 Mbytes per month, up from 35 Mbytes per month in 2009.

Majority of tablet customers activate 3G, AT&T says

The majority of customers who buy tablets from AT&T Mobility now also buy mobile broadband service with their devices, says Glenn Lurie, AT&T president of emerging devices, wholesale and partnerships. Most of those devices seem to use a prepaid data plan, rather than a postpaid plan. More tablet users buy mobile service


That would be a significant development, as one might argue most users will typically have to spend $50 a month for a prepaid service including 1 Gbyte of usage.

Day	$ 15	100MB
Week	$ 30	300MB
Month	$ 50	1GB

That's a big deal. In fact, for the first time in the U.S. wireless history, non-operator branded wireless connections were  the majority source of customer additions in the second quarter of 2011.

Also, almost half of the increase of mobile connections came from customers that are mostly unaware of the network they were actually using. Amazon Kindles, Barnes & Noble Nooks, countless other connected devices, and MVNOs such as TracFone were driving the growth of the industry with more than 52 percent of net additions, says Roger Entner of Recon Analytics.

The second largest growth segment was no-contract with almost a third of new subscriber additions. Contract net additions were less than 16 percent of overall net subscriber additions. B2B now drives mobile broadband

Mobile Broadband Will be a Majority of "Broadband" Use by 2015

By 2015, more U.S. Internet users will access the Internet through mobile devices than through PCs or other wireline devices, IDC now predicts. That's the broadband parallel to what has happened with voice services, where mobile voice for many users is the predominant and preferred way to use voice, while for many others represents the only way to use voice.

The number of mobile Internet users will grow by a compound annual growth rate of 16.6 percent between 2010 and 2015.

Worldwide, the total number of Internet user will grow from 2 billion in 2010 to 2.7 billion in 2015, when 40 percent of the world's population will have access to its vast resources.

Global business-to-consumer e-commerce spending will grow from $708 billion in 2010 to $1,285 billion in 2015 at a CAGR of 12.7 percent.

Worldwide online advertising will increase from $70 billion in 2010 to $138 billion in 2015, with its share of total advertising across all media growing from 12 percent to 18 percent.

Mobile broadband to dominate usage

PdaNet 3.0 Hides Android Tethering

The game of cat-and-mouse between developers and others in the ecosystem never ends. The developer of PdaNet, an app for tethering mobile phones to computers, has released an updated Android app that PdaNet says will hide tethering use from a user's wireless carrier. Data usage will look like regular smartphone data usage and won’t be distinguishable from data being transferred through your phone to your computer.

Carriers will respond, no doubt.

PdaNet is available as a free download from the Android Market. Users also will need to install a desktop app on a Windows or Mac computer, presumably the device using the tethered connection. A full license for the software currently runs $15.95.

PdaNet 3.0 lets you hide Android tethering from your wireless carrier

Will Tablets Depress Mobile Broadband Sales?

It's too early to tell, but one wonders whether tablet sales actually will depress some amount of mobile broadband data plan sales int he short term, even though logic suggests they will increase demand, long term.

It has become routine over the last two years to hear executives at cable and telecom companies point to the sluggish economy and low housing starts as the reason for similarly stubborn consumer resistance to spending more money on some services.

It looks like nothing has changed since the start of 2009. That's significant because it suggests consumers are making deliberate choices in spending on tablets that basically come down to funding tablet purchases by not spending elsewhere in the household budgets. 

It might only be slight issue at the moment, or a near term issue, but one wonders whether a shift to Wi-Fi-using mobile devices is beginning to lessen demand for smartphones, higher-end smartphones and data plans. And, if so, the related question is whether the substitution is just a temporary issue.

Most reports seem to suggest that most iPads, for example, are Wi-Fi units, not 3G-connected. If tablet popularity grows, and at this point it seems to be growing, then more discretionary end user income could be shifted to device purchases and reliance on Wi-Fi, and away from smartphone data plans or PC dongles.

It won't take a user long to figure out that he or she can buy an iPad for about 10 months worth of a 3G mobile data plan costing $60 a month, or an Android tablet for the equivalent of 10 months of smartphone service at $30 a month.

For many users, that will be a trade off that seems logical, since at least half of all iPad use seems to occur at home, where most people have Wi-Fi, while perhaps 10 percent to 25 percent takes place at work, where there often is Wi-Fi. It does not appear that many people actually use their iPads "in transit."

Long term, one suspects tablet ownership will increase appetite for, and use of, mobile broadband services. Ironically, such demand might also lessen appetite for sizable smartphone data plans. Some users might conclude that a Mi-Fi type service, which can supply Wi-Fi for a tablet, smartphone and notebook, all at once, works well enough.