Mobile Broadband Will Drive U.S. Telecom Revenue 2011 to 2016

Mobile data will be the largest contributor to U.S. telecom service provider growth over the next five years, says Pyramid Research. That not-unexpected assessment is simple recognition of the fact that growth must be driven by services that have obvious demand drivers, fit network and other organizational capabilities are not already fairly saturated and highly competitive. Right now, in the U.S. market, mobile broadband to support smart phones and tablet devices is the only clear service that fits all the parameters.

Voice services are expected to dwindle, on both the fixed and mobile networks. There will be growth in the video entertainment, VoIP and high-speed access segments, but at modest rates. 

The U.S. telecom market generated $367 billion in service revenue in 2010, an increase of 3.1 percent over 2009.

"We expect the market to grow at a 3.1 percent compound annual growth rate over 2011 to 2016, reaching $443 billion in 2016. U.S. telecom revenue forecast

While it was the fourth-largest service segment in 2010 (after mobile voice, fixed voice and pay-TV), Pyramid Research projects mobile broadband will have a 12.7 percent CAGR over the 2011 to 2016 period.

That means that mobile broadband services will overtake mobile voice, fixed voice and entertainment video  to become the single largest revenue stream in the U.S. telecom industry by 2016.

As demand for fixed circuit-switched voice decreases, fixed VoIP will increase, growing at a 12.2 percent CAGR from 2011 to 2016. But VoIP still will be the smallest of all revenue streams over the forecast period. There might continue to be some small dial-up Internet access revenue, but it will be negligible.