Sunday, September 18, 2011

New Verizon Policy on Heavy Users, Congested Towers


Verizon Wireless has instituted a new network management policy that some will call “throttling,” while others might say simply represents a more-nuanced way of managing network congestion.

The new plan affects what Verizon says is about five percent of Verizon’s user base, specifically those users of 3G services that use 2 Gbytes of more of data each month, from congested cell sites. The rules do not apply to users of the new 4G network, though. The easiest solution is simply to use 4G. It’s a better experience anyway. New Verizon usage scheme

One suspects that users are capable of making rational choices about their services, and also will rapidly adopt the “default to Wi-Fi strategy.” Most people already seem capable of quickly grasping the advantages.

Some 64 percent of smart phone consumers surveyed by Devicescape use Wi-Fi hotspots at least once a day. Most smart phone owners who use Wi-Fi also use it on the road.  The study showed 90 percent of those users report accessing Wi-Fi both at home and on the road. Smart phone users use Wi-Fi often

Of those who use Wi-Fi outside their home or office, most (24 percent) connect at a cafe or coffee shop, 17.3 percent at a hotel, and 15 percent at a school campus. See Facing data caps, consumers keep turning to Wi-Fi.

Historically, mobiles haven’t been used excessively for data connections. Average mobile data consumption increased from about 90 MBytes per month during the first quarter of 2009 to 298 MBytes per month during the first quarter of 2010, according to Nielsen.

This represents a year-over-year increase of approximately 230 percent, though.  While this increase is substantial, in the first quarter of 2009 more than a third of smart phone subscribers used less than 1 MByte of data per month and usage has dropped to a quarter in the first quarter of 2010.

About 20 million current smart phone users are hardly using any data.

But there is a reason frameworks for managing bandwidth use are important. As mobile data consumption continues to grow, the usage pattern is starting to resemble fixed-line patterns, and that is a problem for all mobile service providers, as there is not now, and never will be any way for mobile providers to match the bandwidth, or cost of bandwidth, that a fixed network provider can offer.

There is a telling statistic in Cisco's Visual Networking Index, namely that as mobile broadband users have rapidly grown, their usage pattern rapidly has assumed the familiar pattern seen in the fixed-line part of the business.

Consider heavy usage patterns. The top one percent of mobile data subscribers generate over 20 percent of mobile data traffic, down from 30 percent just a year ago. That 29-point swing in just 12 months suggests that as more "typical" users adopt mobile broadband, they bring behaviors much different from those of early mobile broadband adopters, namely less-intensive consumption.

Cisco also reports that mobile data traffic over the last year also now matches the 1:20 ratio that has been true of fixed networks for several years (one percent of users generate or consume 20 percent of total transferred bytes). Visual networking index

Similarly, the top 10 percent of mobile data subscribers now generate approximately 60 percent of mobile data traffic, down from 70 percent at the beginning of the year.

All of those instances of "reversion toward the mean" are driven by the broader adoption by "typical" users of smart phone service. That noted, average smart phone usage doubled in 2010. The average amount of traffic per smart phone in 2010 was 79 Mbytes per month, up from 35 Mbytes per month in 2009.

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