Tuesday, October 11, 2011

Wireless Broadband Incremental or a Substitute?

A recent analysis suggests more people are getting their broadband from wireless providers in the Twin Cities and fewer are using traditional services like cable and DSL, according to a new study by St. Paul-based ID Insight, which found that wireless broadband (both from mobile companies and the Minneapolis Wi-Fi network operated by US Internet rose 7.5 percent in the 12 months ending in March. Wireless broadband taking bigger slice of local market

To be careful, it actually isn't so clear whether what the data shows is simply that more people are buying mobile broadband plans, which is largely additive to the universe of broadband connections, or that people are starting to substitute wireless for fixed connections (which some of us do). 


To see what was going on with wireless Internet access, compared to fixed-line access, ID Insight used "Broadband Scout" to look at access trends over the last couple of quarters. "What we found was that internet transactions through a wireless device increased by a factor of over 200 percent, whereas Cable and DSL diminished by a few percentage points." Wireless access grows fast

In and of itself, that simply means people are using their smart phones to do things on the Internet more than they used to do. The reported decrease in fixed network access would be expected to dropk as a percentage of total, if wireless usage is growing so fast. 


The study shows transactions on Comcast's network was 37.6 percent of total and CenturyLink represented 27.8 percent of total. Both of those providers saw their share decline slightly, but again, it might be expected if wireless has grown so fast. 


Wireless broadband, which includes the cellular providers and the Minneapolis Wi-Fi network, ranked third (16.6 percent, or about 152,000 households). The number for wireless customers does not include Wi-Fi networks inside homes.

Among Twin Cities wireless customers, about 131,000 appear to be smartphone, laptop or tablet computers users with data plans. The other 21,000 wireless customers belong to the Minneapolis Wi-Fi network, said Joe Caldwell, the CEO of USI Wireless of Minnetonka, which runs the network. 
Wireless grows

"Over the past few months and quarters the notion of where my broadband connection resides has shifted, at least for me," says ID Insight's Adam Elliott, company president. "A few short months ago, I would have told you that my broadband provider was Comcast, as that was who provided internet access to my home."

"A few short months later, I am not so sure," says Elliott. "A few months ago, I bought one of those funky new Android smart phones on Sprint's 4G network. I am now seeing download speeds of 3 Mbps to 6 Mbps that exceeded my basic Comcast cable connection that was coming in around 3 Mbps." 
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Still, it is not possible to say with certainty that users are dropping fixed connections and relying solely on wireless broadband. 


Other studies likewise have shown growing use of mobile broadband, but that does not, in and of itself, suggest anything definite about whether the usage is complementary to fixed line access, or a substitute. 



Early data from YouGov’s new “DongleTrack” study shows that 10 percent of respondents have used a dongle (USB modem) or a datacard to access the Internet outside the home or work. A mobile phone has been used as an Internet access device by more than one fifth of the online population (21 percent). 
As often is the case, marketers will be looking at younger users for an indication that end user preferences could be changing. In that regard, younger users seem more willing to use wireless broadband services. U.K. trends


The study suggests that 69 percent of respondents under 25 have used wireless broadband access, about 67 percent of those 25 to 34, and 65 percent of those who live in London. 


For almost one in seven users of mobile broadband (14 percent), the use of a dongle or datacard is their only Internet access method. This figure rises to 21 percent of males, 31 percent of 18 to 24 year olds and over one third of Londoners (34 percent).



The study suggests that although much wireless broadband is complementary and supplemental to fixed broadband access, there is a significant adoption of wireless broadband as a substitute for fixed services. 




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