For some of us who were part of companies that cratered during the Internet bubble burst starting in 2001, past truly is prologue. Some companies will discover "zero" is their present valuation. Others will be gobbled up by the elephants in the room. Larger, better-capitalized firms are going to find attractive assets to buy, and buy them.
Media companies will move relatively early, even telcos might find it is the right time to "move up the stack" from layers one and two to the application layer, in broader ways.
Remember the last sea change? All of a sudden, "eyeballs" (reach) largely ceased to matter. Revenue did matter. But firms that already have scale and revenue might be able to reposition acquired assets that primarily represent "reach," and convert reach into revenue.
In the start-up business, 80 percent failure rates are the norm. All that will happen now is that failure rates will accelerate, as firms find they cannot get the next financing round. But the elephants will be dancing.
Sunday, October 12, 2008
Web 2.0 Bubble Burst: Been There, Done That
Gary Kim has been a digital infra analyst and journalist for more than 30 years, covering the business impact of technology, pre- and post-internet. He sees a similar evolution coming with AI. General-purpose technologies do not come along very often, but when they do, they change life, economies and industries.
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