Which Tablet Market Structure Will Emerge?

The big question for tablet device suppliers is whether the market eventually will take the shape of the MP3 player or the smart phone markets. In the former, nobody ever was able to rival Apple, where in the latter market that is not the case. In smart phones, Apple remains a leading player, but not a dominant supplier in the same way Apple dominated the MP3 player market.

Why the difference? Some would point to the way mobile service providers affect phone device success, compared to an MP3 device. Carrier preferences, device subsidies and retail pricing can shape device adoption trend in a way that was not true in the MP3 device market, for example.

Some might argue that, ultimately, it might not matter what specific market share Apple holds, over time, in the smart phone market, as that market is large enough to support huge Apple success, even with less than “dominant” market share.

The Apple iPhone accounts for over half of Apple’s revenue, even though the iPhone has “only” 24 percent market share.

Still, the question of which shape the tablet market could take is germane. Some might argue that Android-powered devices ultimately will create a highly competitive market. Others might argue that, as a content consumption device, the iPad more nearly resembles the iPod.

The iPod is essentially a single-content consumption device while the iPad is a multiple-content consumption device that is not subject to “control” by mobile service providers. In that sense, the iPad potential tilts more to the MP3 model than the smart phone model, some would argue.

Worldwide tablet shipments totaled 27.8 million units in the third quarter of 2012, according to International Data Corporation (IDC).

The tablet market grew 49.5 percent year over year in the third quarter of 2012 and 6.7 percent over the second quarter of 2012.

Android shipments, led by Samsung and Amazon, surged during the quarter, at the expense of Apple, which saw its share slip notably during the quarter, the IDC study found. Still, the question some will ask is whether the tablet market will resemble the MP3 device market or the smart phone market.

Apple simply dominates the former, but is not so dominant in the smart phone market. Looking at operating system share also yields a different sense of market share, as there Apple competes against multiple suppliers.

Looking only at  the original equipment manufacturer share, Apple currently competes most with Samsung.

But current OEM not the big question, for the tablet market.