What Every Exec Needs To Know About The Future of eCommerce Technology | Forrester Blogs

Mobile e-commerce is going to happen in the cloud, or not at all, one might conclude from some Forrester Research findings.

On average, 8.85 different hosts were involved in delivering an e-ommerce transaction this year in the United States, and it was even slightly higher for German eCommerce transactions.

This year, nearly 20 percent of e-commerce transactions across more than 200 sites included at least one piece of content served by the Amazon Elastic Compute Cloud (Amazon EC2) solution. In other words, 20 percent of e-commerce transactions already rely on cloud services provided by Amazon alone.

And appetite for such solutions seems to be growing. About 54 percent of executives are interested in moving to e-commerce solutions based on software-as-a-service.

What Every Exec Needs To Know About The Future of eCommerce Technology | Forrester Blogs:

Cloud Computing: When to Use it; When Not To

There's an old set of tradeoffs between buying services or "doing it yourself," where it comes to computing or communications infrastructure. Hosted VoIP virtually always makes more sense than buying systems for a smaller business. But premises-based solutions typically are more economical for large enterprises.

Something of the same argument can be when companies or people choose between cloud computing services and building their own data centers. Obviously, large enterprises often justify building their own data centers. Others might be able to justify renting space in somebody else's data center. Smaller organizations might well find that renting computing cycles is the better choice.

Google Sr. Manager, Production Network Engineering and Architecture at Google argues that the decision is highly dependent on duty cycle. Steady, predictable loads, especially at a high rate of utilization, will tip economics in favor of self-operated or co-located facilities. Highly-variable demand, and low volume, will tend to tip the economics in favor of a cloud computing solution.

"Think of it as taking a taxi vs. buying a car to make a trip between San Francisco and Palo Alto," says Gill. "If you only make the trip once a quarter, it is cheaper to take a taxi." But "if you make the trip every day, then you are better off buying a car."

"The difference is the duty cycle. If you are running infrastructure with a duty cycle of 100 percent, it may make sense to run in-house," says Gill. The detailed assumptions and analysis are here: https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AgWfa8v6EGzjdElXQVFzU1plSXdEQmVHZ3M5YjlsNVE&hl=en&authkey=CM_RzL0E#gid=0

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Amazon Web Services a $2.5 Billion Business by 2014?

UBS Investment Research analysts Brian Pitz and Brian Fitzgerald estimate that in 2010, Amazon Web Services will generate about $500 million in revenues and will grow to $750 million by 2011. By 2014, it would bring in close to $2.54 billion in revenues.

Researchers at IDC estimate the 2014 global market for cloud computing services of as much as $55 billion.

UBS thinks revenue and profit from Amazon Web Services could have a material impact on Amazon as soon as the latter quarters of 2010.

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How Big is Amazon’s Cloud Computing Business?

Martin Geddes on Socio-Economic Impact of Cloud Communications

"Telcos in particular are selling very outdated products, particular with voice, that needs substantial rethinking if it's going to have a viable business model going forwards, consultant Martin Geddes says.

If you want to know what might happen next month, or even next year, or if you want a technology tutorial, Martin Geddes is not necessarily what you will be looking for.

If you want to know the deeper, broader trends that shape communications, and what service providers might have to do to re-architect their business models, you might not be able to do better than to listen to Martin.

Here's an audio and written version of his latest musing on the future service provider business model.

Martin Geddes Interview: Cloud Communications and Future of Telecom

Can Google Apps Save a Business Money?

Many enterprises would have a really hard time quantifying the benefits from cloud applications, hosted applications or software as a service.

Google claims it can help businesses quantify how much they can save by switching to Google Apps. Smaller organizations might buy the logic.

Android Seems Built for the "Cloud"

One thing is clear with the release of Android version 2.2: Google seems to be much better positioned for a "cloud-based" approach to features.

The new Android version has a “cloud-to-device” feature that Apple doesn't seem able to match, at least for the moment.

If a user buys an app from the Android Marketplace using a PC web browser, he or she can select an Android device, and the item you just purchased will be pushed directly to that device over the air.

If a user is working in browser, then wants to leave and resume on the Android, that can be done. It is possible, using version 2.2, to push the the current URL from the PC web browser to the Android, over the air. If it’s a web page, it’ll open in the Android web browser; if it’s a Google Maps URL, it’ll open in the Android Maps app.

To the extent that mobiles do have a shot at "replacing PCs" in many cases, such cloud-based features likely will be important.

Daring Fireball: Post-I/O Thoughts

Google Aims for Cloud Printing

The Google Chrome operating system apparently will be designed to support output to printers without the use of onboard printer drivers, says Mike Jazayeri, Google Chromium group product manager.

"Since in Google Chrome OS all applications are Web apps, we wanted to design a printing experience that would enable web apps to give users the full printing capabilities that native apps have today," says Jazayen.

Google Cloud Print is a service that enables any application (Web, desktop, or mobile) on any device to print to any printer, he says.

Rather than rely on the local operating system or drivers to print, apps can use Google Cloud Print to submit and manage print jobs. Google Cloud Print will then be responsible for sending the print job to the appropriate printer with the particular options the user selected, and returning the job status to the app.

Google Cloud Print is still under development.

Free E-Book on Cloud Computing

Light and Electric, Thomas Howe's consulting company, has produced an e-book on cloud computing, featuring essays by 20 "thought leaders."

The idea was to capture thinking about where are in early 2010 and where we might be over the next several years.

Howe says that "in the not-so-long-ago past, the thought leadership for communications belonged to those large service providers, vendors and media outlets, as they were the only entities with the practical authority to comment on or effect changes large enough to matter."

That isn't exclusively the case anymore.

The e-book is free and available for download directly from this site: http://cloudcommbook.squarespace.com/get-the-book/.

In addition, for a nominal fee to cover printing and delivery, it is also available in tree-killing hardcopy edition, and bit-killing Kindle edition.

Cloud-Based Services Will be Lead by Enterprises for Next 5 Years

It is highly likely that enterprises will drive most of the $9.5 billion in cloud-based mobile applications that Juniper Research believes will be bought by 2014, but consumer revenues are likely to overtake enterprise-generated revenues after five years.

 Juniper Research predicts that enterprise applications will account for the majority of revenues over the next five years, with businesses increasingly seeking to capitalize on platform services that will be used to provide scalable, flexible data storage solutions and device agnostic, synchronised office services.

But consumer-oriented apps will comprise an ever-larger proportion of total revenues over time, derived both from time-based subscriptions to services such as mobile online gaming and advertising from cloud-based social networks.

While the onset of a cloud-based ecosystem may further erode the strength of the mobile operator-to-customer relationship, cloud computing offers operators the opportunity to develop new revenues streams as well.

Why Cloud Computing is the Finger Pointing at the Moon, Not the Moon

The thing about "cloud computing" is that it is very difficult to isolate and separate from other broader changes in computing infrastructure, all of which are happening simultaneously. We are, most would agree, on the cusp of a change in basic change in computational architecture from "PC" centric to something that might be called "mobile Internet computing," for lack of a more-descriptive and well-understood term.

The point, simply, is that the shift to "cloud-based" computing is inextricably bound up with other crucial changes such as a shift to use of mobile devices as the key end user access device, the rise of Web-based, hosted and remote applications and user experiences.

For most people, businesses and organizations, the shift of geolocational "places" where computing takes place will occur in the background. The main change is the evolution in things that can be done with computational resources.

Aside from something like an order of magnitude more devices that are connected to computing resources, the new mobile Internet will mean the creation of something like a "sensing" fabric will be put into place. Cameras will create "eyes," microphones will create "mouths to speak," and "ears" to hear. Kinesthetic capabilities will create new ways to interact with information overlaid on the "real" or physical world.

All those new devices also will create new possibilities for enriching "location" information. GPS is fine for fixing a location in terms of latitude and longitude. But what about altitude? What about locating devices, people or locations that are in high-rise buildings? Emergency services and first responders need that additional information.

But the possibilities for "sensing" networks grow exponentially once communications, altitude, attitude and other three-dimensional information is available to any application. Lots of medical and recreational devices now can capture biomedical information in real time. Add real-time communications and many other possibilities will open up.

The point is simply that cloud computing as computational architecture will enable other changes, going well beyond simple ability to send and receive information of any sort. The shift to distributed computing will, with mobile sensors, devices and people, lead to vastly-different ability to monitor the environment, process and annotate or contextualize events and objects in the real world with granularity.

That is not to understate the challenges and opportunities for a wide range of companies in the ecosystem, caused directly by a shift of core competencies. By definition, a change of computing eras has always been accompanied by a completely new list of industry leaders.

Keenly aware of that historic precedent, none of today’s computing giants will take anything for granted as the new era begins to take hold. At the same time, it is hard not to predict that key stakeholders of just about every sort might find themselves severely disrupted by the shift.

So far, whole industries ranging from media and music to telecom, advertising and retailing have found themselves struggling to adjust to a world with lower barriers to entry and radically different ways of creating and delivering products and services people want.

As the shift to the next computing paradigm occurs, many more human activities and business models will find themselves subject to attack and change.

Within the global communications business, it should be noted that the incremental growth of just about everything “mobile” will hit an inflection point. Whether that happened in 2009, will happen in 2010 or takes just a bit longer is not the point.

To talk about a world where a trillion devices are connected, in real time, to the Internet, to servers, software and applications, is to talk about a world where mobility IS communications. Mobility will not be merely an important segment of the business, it will be THE business at the end user level.

That is not to say the core backbone networks, data centers and other long-haul and even access networks are unimportant; to the contrary they will be the fundamental underpinning of the “always on, always connected” ecosystem of applications and business activity which will depend on those assets.

Without denigrating in any way the “pipes,” dumb or otherwise, that will be the physical underpinning of all the applications, there is only so much value anybody can wring out of plumbing. Most of the economic value is going to reside elsewhere.

That said, there already are numerous ways to look at cloud computing infrastructure, as it is used to build businesses that create added value.

Almost by definition, cloud computing enables consumption of software and applications that use remote computing facilities. We sometimes call this “software as a service” and the trend is an early precursor of what happens in the shift from PC-based to mobile and cloud-based computing.

Such uses of cloud computing will have intermediate effects on end user experiences. Lots of everyday computing or application experiences will shift away from local computing or storage, and towards on-the-fly rendering.

The shift to utility computing—enterprise use of cloud computing—will shift data centers from “owned and operated” facilities to outsourced services. But that likely will have less impact than the shift to SaaS-based applications.

The former is an “industrial” shift; the latter is more an “end user” shift. And all cloud computing effects will have most impact when they directly touch end user experiences.

Utility computing contributes to many end user experiences, but much utility computing is “behind the scenes.” Hosted applications are, and increasingly will be, everyday experiences for most human beings.

Web services are the area where end user impact will be noticed most strikingly, and where the most-profound transformations will occur, as Web services—mostly mobile—will touch end users with services and features that cannot be provided any other way.

Cloud computing is important, to be sure. But we will miss the bigger picture in focusing too narrowly on what it means for data centers, utility computing services, transport and access providers. Even the huge trend towards mobility is a sub-plot.

Cloud computing will enable an era of ubiquitous computing, with social and economic consequences we cannot begin to imagine. It is a huge business change for all of us in communications. But it is just a finger pointing at the moon; not the moon itself.

Coopetition Model for Cloud App Providers and Telcos?

Discussing the future of apps in the cloud, IBM enterprise initiatives VP Mike Hill and Salesforce.com director platform research Peter Coffee said the line between competing and cooperating was becoming blurred, with "coopetition" the likely result.

“The only place we tend to have some level of friction with service providers is when you’re up in to the largest organisations,” says Hill. “We see service providers as a huge platform opportunity for us here, because we’re going to take the platforms that we build in IBM to deliver these services, and we’re going to pitch and sell it to service providers so they have the opportunity to white label services from us; or even white label to start with so they don’t have to invest capital up front.

Coffee says the Salesforce.com model provides one example of how application providers and Internet service providers can cooperate for mutual benefit.

“We have our services being re-sold by telecom providers who want to take advantage of the fact they already have more than their foot in the door, they’re already completely inside the door as a small business service-suite provider.”

"British Telecom packages and sells our CRM application as a service as part of BT’s small enterprise suite, and there’s absolutely no reason why we wouldn’t want to foster that because that means their skills, their knowledge of the local marketplace, local business customs, local regulations, becomes a leveraging factor for us to do what we do, which is to provide enterprise functionality, and then they make it relevant to the local market," Coffee says.

Permanent Changes in Consumer Behavior and Mobility Business?

The economic crisis "permanently" changed how consumers, enterprises and network builders approach everything, says Christopher Collins, Yankee Group analyst. The changes might not be helpful to communications service providers, if consumers do as they have told Yankee Group they will.

About 66 percent of consumers claim they will spend less in 2010 than in 2009, while 25 percent expect to cancel or spend less for core connectivity services.

About 20 percent of business executives also said they had undertaken “severe reductions” in their technology investments.

But one has to be especially careful at times of transition, which by definition lead to changes of sentiment and behavior. And sentiment seems to be improving.

But some of Yankee Group's 2010 predictions are grounded in a continuation of underlying trends.

The number of mobile-only households in the United States doubled in 2009, to 30 percent of homes, says Collins.

And cord-cutting is rapidly expanding to mobile broadband at a rate faster than anticipated, he notes. In fact, Collins estimates that 33 percent of U.K. homes will be "mobile only" for their broadband connections by Deember 2010. That could happen elsewhere, he suggests.

Prepaid payment plans, lower prices and higher speeds might encourage mobile broadband substitution, he says. "These factors will combine to make mobile broadband a more realistic alternative to land-line broadband for the most price-conscious and quality-insensitive consumers," he says.

Another trend just might have the effect of slowing smartphone adoption, though. Yankee believes mobile service providers cannot afford the increased customer acquisition costs subsidized phones represent.

But should that happen, and users start to pay the full costs of their devices, upgrades will slow and churn will lessen. To forestall the slowing of smartphone uptake, which is key to increasing data revenues, service providers could resort to payment plans for phone purchases.

Also, the Yankee Group believes the netbook will face disappointing sales in 2010, something of a reversal of 2009 trends. NPD DisplaySearch reports that year over year netbook sales grew by almost 270 percent through the second quarter of 2009.

Collins notes that netbook return rates are high, running 30 percent. Collins suggests that is a result of user unhappiness with performance, form factor or other issues. The other issue is that prices of notebooks have dropped. The Yankee Group assumes notebooks will take on similar netbook form factors but with more utility than netbooks offer.

Consumers also drive more than 50 percent of enterprise smartphone purchases, Yankee Group predicts. The largest beneficiary of this trend will be Apple, as the iPhone continues to cross over into the business world. The biggest loser will be Microsoft, as Windows Mobile loses mindshare among both business decision-makers and employees.

Analysts also believe the Chrome OS also will start to power a new class of devices and that cloud computing will drive demand for new enterprise management tools.

Huawei will continue to nab LTE deals from Ericsson, Alcatel-Lucent and Nokia Siemens Networks on their home turf, and Yankee Group predicts that Huawei will expand on its success by winning a major LTE deal in North America in 2010.

Telcos also will start to leverage reliability concerns about cloud computing to win business. As owners of network assets, they can provide enterprises with secure VPN links between private and public cloud environments, plus sophisticated management portals to monitor service performance, Yankee Group believes.

That’s why telcos including BT, Deutsche Telekom, NTT, Orange Business Services and SingTel are leading candidates to become trusted cloud intermediaries.

The coming year also will raise awareness that innovation increasingly requires partnerships, as venture capital investment in hardware and networking start-ups is declining. Venture capital funding for networking and equipment start-ups has declined every year since 2000, according to the National Venture Capital Association (NVCA).

In 2000, the venture capital community invested $11.2 billion in networking and equipment sector companies, but in the first three quarters of 2009, that sector saw just $545 million in investment. If they are to remain competitive, suppliers  must revitalize internal research and development.

In 2010, infrastructure sharing (of both active and passive network assets) will become the de facto business model for efficient telcos in both developed and emerging markets. This is not just a matter of economics; regulators are also forcing the practice. And it’s a critical shift for telcos: Competitive differentiation will focus on services, not network reach. Europe is currently a center of activity, but it’s a global trend (e.g., we see this in India, where regulators are eager to improve the economics of connecting rural areas).

Trailblazers in 2009 included Vodafone and Telefónica, which agreed to share network sites in the U.K., Spain, Germany and Ireland, with more countries under discussion for 2010. Meanwhile, Orange and T-Mobile U.K. agreed to merge in 2010 without changing T-Mobile’s existing 3G network-sharing deal with 3 or Orange’s deal with 3 to provide 2G coverage services.

If telcos don’t embrace infrastructure sharing on their own, regulators may force their hand. The European Parliament (EP) recently approved reforms aimed at helping all telecom operators in the EU 27 share incumbents’ access networks on equal terms. If incumbents fail to comply, regulators can force the functional separation of network operations from service divisions (as the EP did in the U.K., and now plans to do in Italy and Poland). Such approaches are in play across the world: New Zealand with Chorus and Singapore with Nucleus Connect are notable examples; Australia is likely to be next.

Also, U.S. network neutrality rules will have a domino effect worldwide. As a result, service providers everywhere will be forced to become more transparent, both in terms of their internal traffic management practices and the ultimate effects those practices have on end-users.

Why Enterprises Buy Cloud Computing Services

Why are enterprises interested in any sort of cloud computing service? For the same reasons they are interested in just about any other computing or communications tool: they think it will reduce costs and create more value in the information technology investment.

Of course, enterprises don't buy "cloud computing." They buy tools that help them run their businesses.

Email might be an area ripe for a cloud shift, in that regard. It is a necessary function, but a function without compelling strategic advantage.

Typically, necessary but non-strategic functions are the sorts of processes one can think about outsourcing. And it is getting more burdensome to manage email processes, with growing  enterprise regulatory requirements relating to storage of email. The other issue is that email, like most other applications these days, "suffers" from bandwidth creep.

Over time, people are appending larger attachments, for example. Cisco's WebEx Mail service, for example, has full Outlook support. That means users will see no changes, nor will IT departments need to deal with massive training issues and client software updates.

But it isn't the "cloud" that makes the the change interesting. It is the savings in time, labor, money and functionality that will be key. "Cloud computing" as such will be interesting for some enterprises that want to shift capex into opex, that are growing very fast or that are primarily Web based.

For others it might be a way to offload server or computing center chores. But I suspect most users will find they prefer to use a cloud-based application or service because of the value the specific applications represent, because of the consumption or pricing model.

Gartner Drops "Unified Communications" from 2010 "Top 10" List

Unified communications, which was on Gartner's "top 10" trends list for 2009, has been dropped from the 2010 list, which moves "cloud computing" to the top spot. 


People will disagree about what that means, but no trend remains "top of mind" forever. Nor is the ranking an indication that UC is unimportant, simply that it might not be among the most-important priorities for the coming year.


It might simply indicate that most enterprises have figured out what they want to do, for the moment. 


It might indicate that computing architecture, and issues related to computing architecture, which always are top concerns for enterprise IT staffs, once again have moved to the forefront, and that "voice" issues related to IP telephony are largely in an advanced stage of deployment. 


In fact, four of the top-six issues are directly related to remote computing capabilities. 

Telco of the Future is a Software Company

"The telco of the next five years has to be a software company," says John Lazar, MetaSwitch CEO. That statement is rich with implications for business strategy, organization, investment and priorities, but must at least incorporate the ability to "create and tear down" whole applications, service or features very rapidly, without labor-intensive physical processes. That's why MetaSwitch believes in IP Multimedia Subsystem.

The meaning does not extend as far as the notion that access networks and a range of services related to voice, data and video services will be unnecessary. What Lazar means is that since nobody really can predict what the killer app of the future is, providers simply must have the ability to react quickly when users suggest demand exists for any application that benefits from network access.  

And the access and services platform has to transcend silos. "You have to innovate quickly and build links between things," says Lazar. "Things you don't expect will stick," he notes, reminding people that  "nobody predicted SMS (text messaing) would be the huge success it hsa turned out to be."

But addressing both the current recessionary climate, which has nearly everybody reacting caustiously, Lazar also warned that some "people are not thinking ambitiously enough." There are opportunities to be seized, but action is necessary. And Lazar predicts innovators will do well in this recession.

There are constraints, to be sure. "Damn the dollars, full speed ahead" may not be a strategy many firms can embrace. But keep in mind: when somebody, or a company, says "something can't be done," you have to translate.

What the speaker means is that "I, or my organization, for a host of very-real reasons, cannot do it." That is different than saying something really cannot be done.

Other speakers may well say "something is possible, and can be done," because they do not have barriers of one sort or another that prevent them from doing something others say "cannot be done."

Over the next five years, people will do things that "cannot be done." They will be done for one simple reason. Despite a host of reasons why one contestant says something "cannot be done," others will operate without those constraints.

Apple Sales Explode: It's a Cloud Computing Effect

Among the conclusions one might draw from the explosion of Apple market share in the U.S. PC market--in February 2008 Macs got 14 percent unit share and 25 percent dollar share--is that the "Web" really is becoming a computing utility. The results are drawn from a survey of buyers by NPD Group.

As more things can be done "in the cloud," the operating system of the access device matters less. To use an analogy, we aren't yet to the point of simple mobile phones, where most features except for subscriber identity are properties of the network.

We more nearly are in a position analogous to smart phones, however, where some important functionality resides locally, and much is in the network.

If you like, think about PC use pre-Web or pre-local area networks. Initially, with the exception of connection to a printer, a wide area network connection was not necessary to derive value from a PC. Later, as more PCs appeared in the workplace, it became necessary to connect PCs locally.

Operating system mattered greatly, in those applications. Once people started to interconnect over the wide area network, though, things began to change. Obviously one needed the "right" physical interface to support a dial-up modem service. But beyond that the PC operating system begins to matter less.

The wide area network is designed to work transparently to edge devices, so long as the wide area network transmission protocols and interfaces are supported.

That's what is starting to happen with computing applications and services--and video and audio plus multimedia content now are computing applications. The details of edge devices will matter less once "networked" applications take firmer hold.

To use another analogy, consider televisions. The internal details are unimportant so long as the communications interfaces are standard. A TV must tune to standard NTSC signals now, and then HDTV formats in 2009. The display technology must render those pictures properly. Other than that, the details of device operation don't matter.

That perhaps is one reason buyers now are more free to buy Macs, and abandon the Microsoft operating system: OS choices aren't so important now as more value is drawn from the network.

Pacific Crest Securities analyst Andy Hargreaves says the latest NPD results represent 60 percent Apple unit growth and 67 percent revenue growth over the same period one year ago.

At the same time, overall U.S. PC retail shipments grew just nine percent on a five percent increase in revenues.

Apple saw particular strength in notebook systems, which rose 64 percent in units and 67 percent in revenues, suggesting strong sell-through of the company's new MacBook Air, a device specifically designed to rely on the Web and Internet more extensively than a typical machine.

Apple also saw robust demand for its desktop systems, which grew 55 percent on a 68 percent increase in revenues, compared to the overall retail segment which saw unit sales decline of five percent on a two percent drop in revenues.

Of course, Apple design smarts and the spillover glow from the iPod and iPhone probably are enticing buyers who might not have considered a Mac before.

But users wouldn't be doing so unless they were convinced their computing experience won't not be disrupted unnecessarily. One reasons for that greater level of confidence is simply that much of that experience now hinges on access to the Web and Internet.

Eee, gOS Rocket, Linux, Computing in the Cloud

Things are looking up for Linux PCs (even though its share in the OS market still is small) and "computing in the cloud." Good OS, the open source startup that introduced gOS, a Linux operating system with Google and Web applications, on a $199 Wal-Mart PC last November, now says announced that gOS Rocket will be introduced January 7. Think of gOS Rocket as a low-cost Linux-powered notebook that is optimized as a Web device.

Note also that the Asustek Eee PC--also a Linux machine-- was among the top-ten notebook PCs sold by Amazon over the Christmas season, and was ranked at the top of wish lists compiled by Web site CNet. Asustek executives say demand was so strong forthis Christmas season that virtually all available units were bought just about as soon as they were put on the shelves.

“In the two weeks since its launch in the US, the Eee PC has already sold ten thousand sets,” says Sunny Han, ASUS director. Asustek fully expected to finish 2007 by meeting its sales goal of 350,000 units, and is planning for sales in 2008 of three to five million.

Rocket comes with Google Gears, the online-offline synchronization technology from Google that enables offline use of web apps.

gOS Rocket also features gBooth, a browser-based web cam application with special effects, integration with Facebook and other Web services; shortcuts to launch Google Reader, Talk, and Finance on the desktop; an online storage drive powered by Box.net; and Virtual Desktops, an intuitive feature to easily group and move applications across multiple desktop spaces.

At the center of Rocket's new desktop is a gorgeous Google search box, enabling users to perform Google searches directly from the desktop. This new feature launches Google search results in Firefox, the leading, open source web browser. Surrounding the Google search box is an attractive desktop environment comprised of new wallpaper, icons, digital clock, and other new desktop elements.

"Like most of our customers, we absolutely love the gorgeous design and simplified navigation that gOS provides," says Paul Kim, director of marketing for Everex. "With the release of Rocket, the gOS team has once again shown the industry how to make a great looking operating system intuitive and easy to use."

Rocket includes Google Gears to enable offline use of web apps. Google Reader, which allows you to read all your news and blogs in one place, is the only Google application to currently work offline with Google Gears and has been added to the gOS desktop. Launching Firefox will reveal a new custom gOS homepage that prominently features a continually updated list of web apps that work with Google Gears to allow offline access.

Separately, researchers at Informa predict that, by 2012, Linux will ship annually in 128 million mobile phones, or about 8.8 percent of all handsets sold. The report also forecasts a bright outlook for other open source mobile technologies, including Java, WebKit, and others.

According to the report, Linux in 2006 was the second most popular OS for smartphones sold worldwide. During that year it shipped in about 11.7 million handsets, the "vast majority" of which went to customers in Asia. Uptake in Europe and North America during 2007 is forecast to drive overall shipments close to 20 million, or about 17.3 percent of the smartphone market. From there, shipments are expected to nearly quadruple by 2010, reaching 27 percent of all smartphones by 2012.

Terabyte PC Coming

It's just a data point, but note that Asus, the Taiwanese computer maker, is planning on bringing to market a notebook PC with two 500 GByte hard drives from Hitachi Global Storage Technologies.

That's a terabyte. Those of you familiar with enterprise storage, think about it: a terabyte per user. Those of you who have to do your own backups, think about it: losing a significant portion of 1 Tbyte of data if your hard disks crash.

The upside is that such a user can 1,000 hours of video, or more than 350 feature length movies, or 250,000 four-minute songs. The downside? If those files are not backed up someplace, huge collections of audio or video can vanish.

The point is that storage continues to emerge as a function that is becoming harder to manage. It is harder to backup, harder to restore, harder to secure, index and retrieve. Part of the reason is that simply is so much more information to store. This graphic from searchstorage.com simply makes the point that storage and backup requirements grow steadily.

Which makes the argument for storage in the cloud ever more compelling. If one's authorized copies of music, video or other material are stored in the cloud, local hard drives can crash with little threat of losing the content. Not to mention that the files can be used on any number of endpoints (I didn't say downloaded to those endpoints).

Firefox Goes Cloud Computing

Firefox has taken a step towards cloud computing by releasing the first version of Weave, a way to blend of the desktop and the Web through deeper integration of the browser with online services.

Basically, Weave pushes browser metadata (bookmarks, history, customizations into the cloud so it can be retrieved and used on any machine. The metadata is transparently reflected everywhere an individual gets online. Weave also will provide a basic framework for easily sharing and delegating access to this metadata to friends, family and third-parties. And it's a Mozilla product so there will application program interfaces for developers.

Mozilla intends to provide the infrastructure and an consistent model for how a user can open up their browser metadata to friends and third-party applications.

IBM Blue Cloud: Internet Style Data Centers

IBM’s Blue Cloud is a platform for cloud-based computing, expected to be available to customers in the spring of 2008, supporting systems with Power and x86 processors.

“Blue Cloud" will allow corporate data centers to operate more like the Internet, enabling computing across a distributed, globally accessible fabric of resources, rather than on local machines or remote server farms.

It is, along with Amazon's Elastic Compute Cloud, a seminal step towards network-based computing architectures. Sun Microsystems was ahead of its time in declaring that the "network is the computer." But cloud computing is going to fulfill the prediction.

Call it "software as a service" if you like. The point is that we are nearing an era where resources will be invoked from the computing cloud using a Web browser. Policies still will be needed to authorize use of specific resources, to be sure. But the larger point is that computing, storage and application resources will reside "in the cloud," and be invoked as required by users at the edge of the cloud.

There are all sorts of practical advantages. Distributed or mobile workers can simply invoke their services and information from where they are, using a standard Web browser. Everyone always will have the latest version, the latest patch, the latest version or update.

Computationally intense activities can be handled by clusters of machines designed for such intensity. Storage can be invoked, not carried; used rather than built.

If a developer needs expensive resources, they can be gotten on a sort of "time shared" basis, rather than on a "build your own computing center" basis.

Blue Cloud will be based on open standards and open source software supported by IBM software, systems technology and services.

The interesting speculation is about how cloud computing might change the way enterprises think about their application and storage architectures. Given the massive increase in the scale of IT environments, one wonders how they'll assess the trade-offs between "building data centers" and "renting reources."

Up to this point, the enterprise data center has been the penultimate computing resource. Might the "cloud" surpass even local and networked data centers?