"Steve Jobs Was Right"

"Steve Jobs was right," says at&t VP Ralph de la Vega. Right about slashing the price of the iPhone sooner than att&t would typically have done. AT&T Inc., owner of the biggest U.S. mobile phone service, said the increase in sales of the iPhone has been "significant" since maker Apple Inc. cut the price by a third. How much?

at&t appears also to have been at least partly right about the iPhone's impact. Sprint and Verizon executives both acknowdledge at least a temporary increase in churn immediately after iPhone hit the market, and again after the recent price reduction.

Perhaps of more lasting significance is the ability of iPhone users to use Wi-Fi for connectivity in place of the EDGE network. Though it is doubtful many users will settle for a single "do everything device" that primarily connects only when within range of Wi-Fi networks, it will be interesting to watch whether there is a developing market for devices used primarily as media players.

The reason is simply that if the primary use mode is media, not voice, users might be able to live with sideloading and "spot" access of connectivity at home, at work and at public hotspots. And if there is a market for that, there could be a market for other Web-based devices that have value even when they are not "always connected."

That in turn is significant because it could offer some new options for providers of services and devices optimized for Web applications rather than voice. The analogy is notebook computers, that are highly useful even though they are not always connected. It might be possible to create significant new business models for devices that are "mobile" but not "always connected."

That, in turn, is highly significant for application or service providers that do not want to depend on the legacy mobile connectivity providers for access and transport.

Orange Gets iPhone in France

France Telecom's Orange has sealed the iPhone deal, it appears. France Telecom CEO Didier Lombard says the iPhone would be distributed in France "before Christmas, probably in November." Orange does not appear likely to subsidize the handset.

Address Books for Landlines?

Embarq is adding an address book feature to its home phones, allowing people to look up an entry and dial it by speaking a name into the handset.

Embarq also is testing a text-messaging function for home phones in some markets. When a text message is sent to a land-line number, the home phone rings, converts the message into audio, and plays it back. The land-line phone user can reply with an audio message or press a button to send a standard text response.

You have to admire Embarq's efforts to add features to landlines that are standard for mobiles. You also have to wonder how well address books, which are personal, and text messages, also personal, are going to translate into a "public" setting, which most landline phones represent.

One-person households won't have that problem, of course. "Public" and "personal" are the same, in such cases. But it will be an interesting test.

Sprint Launches Airave Femtocell Service

I happen to live in one of the neighborhoods in Denver where Sprint is rolling out its new Airave femtocell network, and i do have mobile service with Sprint (I also use Verizon, T-Mobile and at&t). That doesn't necessarily mean I am going to test it or use it, but I can. The service also is available in some parts of Indianapolis.

Make no mistake: this is a landline replacement service. In my case the incremental cost of the femtocell service, offset by the abandonment of my landline, would save $20 a month or so. That might be an interesting number for lots of consumers.

It makes possible unlimited incoming, outgoing, and long distance calls using any handset Sprint sells and supports. As I have argued before, handset freedom will be vitally important in the fixed-mobile convergence space. Dual-mode phones don't make as much sense to me, for precisely that reason.

Airave vastly improves indoor mobile coverage (something desperately needed in my neigborhood. All you have to do is watch all my neighbors out on their front porches talking on their mobiles.

Airave costs $15 per month for individuals and $30 per month for families, above the existing wireless plan any user has.

The Airave base station costs $49.99. Sprint plans to make the AIRAVE available later this year to customers in the remainder of Denver and Indianapolis, along with Nashville, and to customers nationwide in 2008.

The Samsung-built Airave base station covers approximately 5,000 square feet. Up to three Sprint subscribers can use the AIRAVE simultaneously as long as they are registered with the device.

Airave is Sprint's answer to T-Mobile's HotSpot@Home service. So watch the deployment numbers, when they ultimately are available.

T-Mobile Sells iPhone in German Market

T-Mobile will sell Apple's iPhone in Germany for 399 euros ($558) each. Service plans weren't immediately announced. As in the United States, where Apple picked at&t as its exclusive network services provider, customers in Germany will have to sign up for two years to buy and use the 8-gigabyte version of the phone-iPod-Web appliance.

In the U.K. market, where O2 has a five-year exclusive on service for the iPhone. And a pattern seems to be developing in terms of the business model.

Estimates of how much revenue O2 is going to share with Apple vary between 10 percent to 40 per cent and it is likely both figures are correct. The delta is what Apple gets paid based on the degree of churn the device can induce.

Apple might get 10 percent of revenue when an existing O2 customer gets an iPhone, but Apple might get the heftier percentage when a customer switches service providers and becomes an O2 customer.

at&t pays Apple $3 a month when one of its existing customers buys an iPhone plan, but $11 a month when a customer switches carries and becomes an at&t customer.

O2's ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) is around £23, so 10 per cent of that would be £2.30 while 40 per cent comes to £9.20.

3G GPhone?

Now that Adsense for Mobile is launched in 13 markets, the next issue is whether, or when, Google will launch a branded handset, and whether it actually will bid to own its own U.S. mobile broadband network.

DigiTimes says Google is pondering both EDGE and 3G versions of its branded handset. And DigiTimes says it has been told Google might opt for 3G. A switch from EDGE likely would push back the introduction into the first half of next year instead of this year.

High Tech Computer is said to be the manufacturing contractor for the Gphone.

3G would make lots of sense for a device so Web browsing centric.

No Wireline in This at&t Bundle

In a nod to new market realities, at&t is offering a package of wireless calling and residential high-speed Internet without wireline voice as a mandatory part of the package. at&t will launch the program in seven cities.

Bought separately, the wireless plan would cost about $40 while the 1.5 Mbps DSL would cost about $20. The advantage today is avoidance of the need to buy a wireline voice connection to get the DSL service as a stand alone. It's a half step to full naked DSL.

The $60 a month package is aimed at younger users and college students, and
includes 450 wireless minutes of "any time" wireless use plus 5,000 minutes on nights and weekends, plus free calls to other AT&T mobile customers. Customers also can roll over unused "any time" minutes.

The digital subscriber line service operates at a 1.5 Mbps rate downstream. The same plan is offered for $65 in the former BellSouth territory.

Later this year, AT&T plans to offer a naked DSL connection at about half that speed for $19.95 a month to all customers. That offer will put real pressure on the remaining dial-up connections.

telx|vision: Anthony Sticha, Interview at Cbx 2007

Build For Your Kids, Not Your Father

A recent survey by CIO Insight suggests chief information officers use (or think they ought to say they use) Internet video, wikis, blogs, really simple syndication, podcasts and social networking. Twitter and Second Life don't get nearly the same levels of use.

iPhone for O2: Zero Margin for Carrier

Mobile operator O2 (Telefonica) reportedly has won the right to sell the Apple iPhone in the U.K. market. It may ultimately regret the victory, as the Guardian reports O2 is giving Apple 40 percent of service revenues.

The other U.K. mobile operators reportedly backed away from the deal as the O2 business arrangement essentially is a guaranteed money loser. O2 of course is gambling it can leverage the deal to take share from its U.K. competitors.

As part of the deal, Carphone Warehouse will act as an authorized retailer for O2 as well. Apple apparently retains control of device pricing.

The deal is part of a number of potential destabilizing developments in the mobile business. It isn't simply who is in the networks business. It also is where value and hence profit are to be made in the mobile ecosystem. Apple thinks it is the phone. Google might think it is the ability to create targeted advertising. Other players, such as satellite TV providers, might see value in the ability to create a triple play including broadband access and voice.

In the U.S. market there is the possibility of bids for 700 MHz spectrum, enough to construct a national broadband network. Google has said it likely will bid, and Apple itself is said to be considering its own bid. Other contestants in need of a terrestrial broadband capability, such as DirecTV and EchoStar, have to be weighing their own options as well.

Buying a transmission network is a costly way to create an application delivery network. But there are precedents. Broadcast TV, radio, cable TV, cellular, paging, satellite TV and telephone networks all were built to provide a single "killer" application. Apple could be looking at 700 MHz as a way of jumpstarting mobile video. Google is more interested in mobile advertising. The satellite providers would gain a terrestrial broadband and voice capability to create a triple play under their own control.

One might question whether any new firm focused on new applications would want the headaches of running a network. One might question whether the advantage of owning a network is really worth what it would cost to acquire spectrum and construct a network. But it is a measure of destabilization that such developments are being pondered.

Separately, T-Mobile is expected to win exclusive iPhone rights in Germany, while Orange wins that right in France. At this point, Apple is betting the device trumps the network. The U.K. iPhone will use the slower 2.5G EDGE network, not the faster 3G network.

Verizon FiOS Getting Ready to Blow Down Doors

Readers of ComputerWorld might not be "typical" U.S. consumers. Neither might members of the ChangeWave Alliance, as both will skew much more heavily into the technological savvy end of the customer spectrum. But there's growing evidence that at least for these lead elements of the technology-buying and influencing market, Verizon's FiOS is poised to take significant share.

Not that "satisfaction" is any guarantee of loyalty, but FiOS customers seem significantly happier than Comcast cable modem customers, for example. And on the "I'm going to switch" front, limited FiOS availability, like limited iPhone stock, has depressed sales. That will change, if ChangeWave member sentiments are any indication.

In fact, of users who say they are going to change video providers, the percentage of users who say they intend to switch to FiOS or another fiber-to-customer service is 300 percent higher than the percentage of users that say they will switch to cable for TV service.

So Verizon and at&t simply have to get their networks in front of more customers.

DT Gets iPhone?

T-Mobile appears to be the exclusive carrier for the iPhone in Germany next week. Apple reportedly has a revenue sharing deal similar to that with at&t, in which Apple collects a portion of the monthly subscription fees. Pricing will reportedly be set at 399 Euros ($554) for an 8GB model. It isn't clear whether 3G support is forthcoming.

Pantech Duo for at&t

Touch screen smart phones aren't universally desired. So at&t is introducing a dual-sliding phone like the Helio Ocean, but using the Windows Mobile 6 operating system. The Pantech Duo uses the 3G network, , a sleek-looking dual-slider that zips along on their 3G HSDPA network, has a 1.3-megapixel camera, and can do push email.

Samsung Croix for Vodafone

As expected, the iPhone is changing smart phone design, pushing devices in the direction of more capability as media players. That ultimately will have repercussions for enterprise information technology managers as well, since business users are going to want to use such devices.

The Samsung F700V Croix will be introduced by Vodafone as an "iPhone killer" when Apple's device is introduced in European markets.

The Croix features a 3.2-inch touchscreen and 3G access using HSDPA running at a 3.6Mbps peak download rate. It has front and rear cameras for video calling and capture. The Croix should play AAC and MP3 songs as well as H.264, MPEG-4, and Real videos.

The device closely resembles the minimalist design of Apple's iPhone. A single navigation button near the bottom of the phone resembles the single button on Apple's iPhone, while rounded corners and a rectangular shape give the Ultra Smart F700 an iPhone-like appearance. The device includes a slide-out keyboard to accommodate typing and Web browsing.

The Croix also features 5-megapixel camera offering auto-focus.

Credit Facebook for Force.com

Force.com is an on-demand application development platform that will extend Salesforce.com's subscriber base far beyond traditional business software users sometime in 2008. And you can bet Facebook's success as an applications platform had something to do with the decision.

Force.com will give customers, developers and independent software vendors the ability to create custom applications and user interfaces that can be accessed from desktop PCs, iPhones or retail kiosks using the Salesforce.com service. That's the advantage from the end user perspective.

For developers and hosts, there are other advantages, such as ability to create and support new applications without the need for new Web servers and data center facilities. The new platform will operate in much more of an on-demand basis, as a result.

Visualforce uses HTML, AJAX and Flex programming languages.