TD-LTE Kills WiMAX

TD-LTE will lead to the demise of WiMAX, with device sales peaking by 2015, say researchers at WiseHarbor. WiMAX has made significant commercial progress by occupying the unpaired spectrum that tends to be much cheaper than the paired spectrum used for CDMA-based technologies including EV-DO and HSPA, the firm notes.

But TD-LTE will eclipse WiMAX because it likewise allows the use of unpaired spectrum as well as the paired spectrum already employed commercially by LTE.

Mobile Broadband Devices Forecast to 2020 Predicts Demise of WiMAX With Rise of TD-LTE in Unpaired Spectrum:

Price is Key to Android Tablet Success

The latest Retrevo Pulse study asked over 1,000 people what phone they planned to buy this year and over 20 percent of the respondents indicated an iPhone. If that number holds up it could be another good year for Apple and the iPhone.

But the bigger issue is whether it already is essentially too late for other contestants to prevent Apple from dominating the category as it does MP3 players. So far, Apple, though a top contender, has not reached the level of market share domination in smartphones that it has in MP3 players. But nobody doubts Apple will try. And history suggests all other suppliers have to be worried about the sudden emergence of the tablet category as well.

Are we looking at another Apple dominated product category like the iPod did with MP3 players?

When Retrevo asked consumers what would prevent them from buying an iPad, the most common answer was “don’t need one,” followed by “too expensive.”

As most would have expected, users that already have an Apple PC or iPhone are more likely to think they need an iPad. When it looked at the iPhone owners, Retrevo found only 26 percent of those users thought they didn't “need” an iPad.

The Retrevo study also suggests that the e-book reader market and the tablet PC markets are distinct, to an extent. The company found a significant number (40 percent) of consumers who own or plan to own an e-Reader also plan to buy an iPad in 2010.

When Retrevo asked consumers what would get them to buy an Android-based tablet over an iPad, the number one answer was “price.”

While 53 percent of  respondents said they weren’t interested in buying a tablet at all, of the other 47 percent who wanted one, a little over half (53 percent of those who said they wanted a tablet PC) said they’d buy an Android tablet if it was less expensive than an iPad.

Also, 33 percent said they would buy if the tablet used the Verizon network.

If manufacturers of Android-based tablest want to grab significant share in the market, the poll suggests there is at least one thing they can do: create a device that doesn't cost as much as the iPad.

read more here

17% of Verizon Mobile Subs Would Switch to an iPhone?

AT&T’s iPhone-exclusivity deal hasn’t yet expired; nor has Apple announced plans to sell the device through a second U.S. carrier, despite what seems to be a constant stream of rumors.

But Morgan Stanley equity analyst Katy Huberty has estimated that nearly 17 percent of all Verizon mobile customers would upgrade to an iPhone when given a chance to do so.

“There is substantial pent up iPhone demand within the Verizon installed base as 16.8 percent of Verizon subscribers said they are ‘very likely’ to purchase an iPhone if offered on the Verizon Network,” Huberty says. “This 16.8 percent is higher than AT&T subscriber’s 14.6 percent extreme interest in the current AT&T iPhone and well above the overall iPhone extreme interest of 7.5 percent.”

Assuming Verizon does add the iPhone to its smartphone lineup and that most of its subscribers who said they were “very likely” to purchase the device do so over a two-year period, Huberty estimates Verizon would sell about seven million to eight million iPhones annually, for a couple of years, at least.

Huberty does not appear to be among those who believe existing iPhone customers on AT&T's network would switch over to Verizon. Sure, there will some switchers, but Huberty does not think it will be a sizable number of subscribers.

In markets where the iPhone has gone from single-carrier to multiple-carrier distribution, such as France, the original iPhone carrier that lost exclusivity hasn’t suffered much at all.

Beyond this, there’s the issue of early-termination fees, which will make it difficult for current AT&T iPhone users to flee, says Huberty: Also, since it appears 70 percent of U.S. wireless accounts, as well as about 70 percent of AT&T's accounts, are part of a family plan, it would be even harder to switch, as the entire family account would have to change.

The early termination fees for a five-line account would be substantial, depending on when in the two-year cycle the switch occurred.

Video Snacking, Not Feasting, is One Impact of New AT&T Tariffs

AT&T's latest realignment of its smartphone wireless data plans based on how much bandwidth they use is hard to characterize in a uniform sense. Heavy users won't like it, but the plans reflect more realistically the value they derive from the network.

Lighter users might find they actually can save money by switching plans. Lots of non-users who believe they are likely to be light users will benefit. Moderate users will have to think about whether to keep their unlimited $30 plans or switch to the $25 plan.

The clearest impact will be on new users signing up starting June 7, as the difference between the unlimited plan and the 2-Gbyte plan will mean users will likely wind up snacking on video rather than feasting. That doesn't mean actual behavior even under the old plan would have been much different. Users likely were mostly snacking, to begin with.

It's just that the 2-Gbyte cap will encourage people to watch their video consumption more closely.

And that likely is modestly bad news for the mobile video industry, to the extent that revenues are based on subscriptions or advertising. In the first case it will be harder to sell a recurring subscription service when users are not sure what it will cost to use the service, in terms of bandwidth charges.

In the latter case people will be watching less video, therefore being exposed to fewer ads, and resulting in less activity that can be monetized.

Even AT&T's high-end, $25 monthly plan, including 2 GB of bandwidth, can be used up in less than a day of watching video. And while AT&T's $10 per GByte overage charges are much more reasonable than previous industry charges, they're still unlikely to be popular.

A two-hour movie, even compressed, could use upwards of 500 MBytes of data. that could mean variable and unexpected charges, and consumers hate that.

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Family Plans Now Dominate Mobile Industry

Family plans now dominate consumer mobile service packages. More than two thirds of consumer contract plans are family plans, up from less than 50 percent at the end of 2005, according to Nielsen Co.

According to a new T-Mobile survey, 73 percent of households with both family plans and children 22 or older still have an adult child on their plans.

At T-Mobile, for instance, an individual plan with 500 minutes and unlimited texting costs $49.99 a month with a two-year contract. A family plan with 1,500 minutes and unlimited texting costs $99.99 a month for two lines, or about the same per person for more minutes. Adding two additional lines costs $10 a month, and cuts the price per person to $27.50.

What Will Consumers Do When Bandwidth Comes in Buckets?

AT&T's shift to aligning bandwidth consumption and retail pricing will be an important test of how well consumers actually understand how applications are related to bandwidth consumption, and whether price signals that work in virtually all other businesses also will work for mobile bandwidth consumption.

Lots of people think it will prove too challenging for the typial user. That might not be true if easy-to-use bandwidth dashboards are available. People will quickly figure out that video runs the meter hard while almost nothing else has to be thought about.

The other angle is that people are pretty good about figuring out that if "no additional cost" Wi-Fi hotspots can be used, or similar in-home or in-office bandwidth, they will do so, especially when there is a clear perceived value.

But there is really no way to know for sure until lots of users are on the new plans, and have time to adjust their behavior so they are intentional about bandwidth usage. It's really not that different from learning to be intentional about water, electricity, paper, gasoline, calories or just about anything else with real-world externalities.

The larger issue likely will develop as people start to use iPads and other tablet PCs, as well as netbooks, for the simple reason that people consume an order of magnitude more data on a fixed-line-connected PC than on a typical feature phone, or even a smartphone. But consumption patterns will change as the mix of connected devices changes.

Wireless offload to the fixed network will help quite a lot, and should be encouraged, as will easy-to-use and informative dashboards.

Adopt a Bird

Adopt a bird.....adopt a bird...adopt a bird...

You can adopt a bird here...

We can't save some of them....but we can save many...Associated Press reports after six weeks with one to four birds a day coming into Louisiana's rescue center for oiled birds, 53 arrived Thursday June 3and another 13 June 4.

And, says center spokesman Jay Holcomb, more are on their way from the rookery on Queen Bess Island, near Grand Isle.

About 20 people are working at the center, and so far Holcomb says that's plenty.

He and veterinarians Heather Nevill of Tri-State and Sharon Taylor of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service say the birds were not yet ready for cleaning. They're being kept in wooden pens with mesh covers, white cloths over those and heat lamps to keep them warm so they won't preen themselves until they can be washed.

Can Clearwire Break Into Top-Five Mobile Ranks?

There being somewhere between 234 million and 238 million mobile customers in the U.S. market, one percent of market share represents about 2.4 million customers.

That means Clearwire now has less than half a percent market share, as it has about a million customers.

WiMAX no longer offering an advantage over Long Term Evolution, despite its headstart in the market for 4G services, one has to wonder whether it is realistic to expect Clearwire to reach the ranks of the top five contenders.

Clearwire is in eighth position at the moment, but with a healthy gap between it and number-seven Leap, which most observers think will become part of another company in the not-too-distant future. MetroPCS is the most-often-mentioned partner.

That would clear the ranks above Clearwire, allowing it to move to spot seven, but with a bigger gap than it now faces for future moves. A merged Leap and MetroPCS would have 12 million to 13 million subscribers.

Clearwire would have to leapfrog US Cellular to take spot number six, assuming US Cellular itself did not wind up as part of one the largest carriers.

One suspects Clearwire's center of gravity will have shifted to wholesale customers, rather than retail, several years into the future, as Sprint and Clearwire's cable customers ramp up sales of 4G services.

Breaking into the  top five retail ranks seems impossibly distant.

Verizon Marketing "Digital Voice" in 11 States and District of Columbia

Verizon now is marketing "FiOS Digital Voice" in FiOS markets in New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Florida, Texas, Virginia, Maryland, Washington, D.C., Delaware, Pennsylvania and California, marking Verizon's initial wave of efforts to transition customers off the legacy voice network and onto the packet voice network.

The transition process could easily last a decade or more, requiring Verizon to maintain dual access and switching infrastructures for the interim period, before being able to decommission the old switching network completely, along with the legacy copper access network.

Verizon touts an easy-to-use, online account-management tool as a key element of FiOS Digital Voice, enabling customers to conveniently use a broadband-connected computer to access and manage the service's integrated features. Customers also have the option to add another FiOS Digital Voice line, with its own assigned number and all the same features, for $9.99 a month.

The service comes standard with 22 features including "Live Voice Mail Screening," which allows users to hear voice mail messages as they arrive and then decide whether or not to take the incoming call.

Call logs list the caller name, telephone number (if available), date, time-of-day, location and duration of every incoming and outgoing call. Users can easily transfer contact information directly into their FiOS Digital Voice personal address book.

"Caller ID on TV" allows FiOS TV customers to see incoming caller ID information displayed for several seconds in the corner of their TV screen.  They can decide to pause their TV programming to answer the call or let it go into their FiOS Digital Voice mailbox.  The feature can be turned on or off from the customer's set-top box.

"Locate me" allows users to program up to three numbers where they might be reached when not at home, and incoming calls will ring at each of those numbers, one at a time. Unanswered calls are sent to voice mail.

Simultaneous ring, do not disturb, voicemail with email notification and virtual numbers also are available.

New customers who sign up by July 24 for FiOS quad- or triple-play bundles that include broadband, TV and FiOS Digital Voice also will receive a guaranteed monthly rate for two years and a $20 monthly discount.

WiMAX and HSPA+ Speeds About Equal, in This Test

At least according to this test of the T-Mobile USA network and the Sprint 4G network in Philadelphia, Sprint's WiMAX network and T-Mobile's HSPA+ network delivered roughly similar download speeds, just shy of 3 Mbps on average.

These are real-world, average speeds, not "up to" numbers. By some estimates, 3 Mbps is easily twice as fast as the typical real-world speed with 3G, and faster than many home DSL connections.

4G Networks Tested: WiMAX vs. HSPA : The Numbers (Phone Scoop):

Sprint HTC EVO 4G gets its First Patch

Sometimes you only have to wait a few hours or days before a bug gets fixed. So it is with the Sprint HTC Evo, on sale today for the first time. Early beta users had reported a memory card issue that now is fixed.

The patch can be completed over the air, manually if required, by going to the "settings" and "system updates" menus and then following the directions.

Also, by this point all the initial units have been sold. As of 8:30 am Mountain time 90,000 units had been sold, leading one store manager to warn his staff that all units would be sold within an hour.

Activation computers appeared to be under strain as well.

Sprint HTC EVO 4G gets its first OTA update, fixes microSD issues

Is Clearwire's Future as a Wholesaler?

Clearwire today is partly a retailer of services under its own name, and a major retailer of spectrum services to cable companies and Sprint. But one wonders, given its continuing capital needs, and the existence of at least one major mobile provider that desperately needs new fourth-generation spectrum (T-Mobile USA) whether Clearwire will not ultimately find it is primarily or exclusively a wholesale provider of 4G spectrum.

Comcast, Intel, Time Warner Cable, Google and Bright House Networks are minority investors while Sprint is the majority owner.

A research note from Credit Suisse evaluates the value of mobile satellite spectrum of the sort Harbinger Capital has been touting as the basis for a brand-new U.S. Long Term Evolution network, as being worth something on the order of $0.50 per MHzPOP. That evaluation apparently is derived from prices paid in 2006 for AWS spectrum that mobile providers now are using.

If those prices are sustainable in today's marketplace, then Clearwire might well be sitting on spectrum worth about $20 billion, Business Week has suggested. Some think it might be worth more.

read the Business Week story here

For Clearwire, much is riding on whether its strategy of buying up some 85 percent of the U.S. 2.5-GHz spectrum band will pay off.

The $5 billion Clearwire will pay its license holders for its spectrum over the next three decades is a bargain compared to what its rivals are paying. AT&T and Verizon bought their spectrum that can be used for 4G at government auction in 2008, paying a combined $16 billion, though many would argue those allocations, at much-lower frequencies, have propagation characteristics so much better that the premium is worth paying.

An unfunded business plan also remains an issue. At its current rate of spending, Clearwire will burn through its cash in 2011, according to Steve Clement, an analyst at Pacific Crest Securities. Clearwire may need $3.8 billion more to reach its goal of building a network that covers 270 million people, Clement says.

Clearwire now has about one million subscribers, double what it had in 2009. It added 283,000 net new subscribers in the first quarter, compared with 133,000 new customers in the previous quarter.

But even that rate of growth is unlikely to get Clearwire close to players such as Verizon Wireless, which had 93 million customers or so in the first quarter, out of 286 million total subscribers. Verizon has 31 percent of the market; AT&T has 25 percent; Sprint and T-Mobile USA both have 12 percent of the market.

Even at five million subscribers, Clearwire would still have only about 1.5 percent to two percent of the U.S. market, by the time it reaches that level, in two years, perhaps, assuming the overall market grows over the next two years about as much as it has been this year, and if Clearwire's growth accelerates.

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YouTube to “Live Stream?"

Max Haot, the CEO of Livestream, believes this screenshot provides”strong evidence that YouTube is about to launch a live streaming feature. The big issue most of us likely will have is how the service might be used, by whom, and what business model YouTube intends to pursue.

Ad support is one option, but it might make more sense to pursue a "carriage fee" option, where the provider would simply buy the equivalent of air time from YouTube.

Screenshot Hints At YouTube “Live Stream” Option

Netflix Outlines How it Will Become a Streaming Video Provider

Netflix was supposed to be "toast" as the world shifted from DVD rental to online viewing of movie content. But Netflix always knew that would happen, and has remained in front of the transition in a way few firms ever do.

Netflix has introduced a $7.99 streaming-only subscription plan in the United States for the first time. The plan, which allows members to instantly watch unlimited movies and TV episodes streamed from Netflix to TVs and computers, is available now to both new and existing members.

The company also announced that the price of its popular subscription combining unlimited movies and TV shows streamed instantly over the Internet and unlimited DVDs delivered quickly by mail, with one DVD out at a time, will increase by a dollar a month to $9.99. Prices of subscription plans allowing for more DVDs out at a time will also increase.

Advertisers Might Be Able to Update Ads Dynamically Using Twitter

Google has quietly invited a handful of advertisers to test a new display-ad integration with Twitter, which essentially allows ads to be updated in real time by changing the content of the tweets.

The layout of the ads places the Twitter bird is in the left-hand corner while the advertiser's latest tweet is featured in a box centered in the unit. A button to the right reads "Follow on Twitter," allowing users to become a follower of the advertiser without leaving the page.

The ads are linked to the client's Twitter account, allowing it to always dynamically insert every tweet. Clicking on any part of the ad other than the "Follow on Twitter" button takes the user to the advertiser's Twitter page. The ads are appearing on sites in the Google content network, ClickZ reports.

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