Dish to Unveil Blockbuster Streaming Service

Dish Network Corp. will announce pricing next week for its Blockbuster streaming-movie service, which will compete with Netflix. Bloomberg reports.

Though the service will be offered initially to Dish subscribers, non-Dish customers who only want Blockbuster’s offering will eventually be able to do so. Dish to Unveil Blockbuster Streaming Prices

The number of people watching video on the Internet is expected to nearly double by 2015 to 1.5 billion while the amount of video they watch on the Web is also seen doubling to more than an hour a day, according to Cisco Systems. 


Not all that video will be of the subscription sort, of course.  Cisco forecast

Google Gravity...Just for Fun

Just for fun, go to google.com. Type "Google gravity" into the search bar. Watch. Then enter a search term in the search bar. Watch. Do it again. Throw stuff around. Then go back to work.

Just how fast is AT&T's new 4G LTE network?

Earlier this year the folks at PC magazine performed a speed test in 21 major cities to see who has the fastest network. Verizon’s 4G LTE pulled in an average of 9.46 megabits per second down (with peaks hitting over 35 megabits per second!) and 1.35 megabits per second up. Keep in mind all such tests depend on how many users are sharing the network. A network with few users will be quite fast. A "loaded" network will provide a different experience.

AT&T’s 4G LTE network has been up for less than a week, so there aren’t that many people using it. Research firm Signals Research gobbled up nearly 90 GB of data over three days in Houston, Texas.

“The average downlink Physical Layer throughput was 23.6 Mbps with a peak rate of 61.1 Mbps. Both results meaningfully exceeded our expectations. The data rate also exceeded 40M bps for 8.6 percent of the time and 21 Mbps–the theoretical peak data rate of the operator’s HSPA+ network–for 38.2 percent of the time. Most importantly, the data rate was greater than 5 Mbps for 95 percent of the time.”

Don't count on that lasting. As more users get on the network, typical speeds will drop, and quite a lot.

Just how fast is AT&T's new 4G LTE network?

Is The Real U.S. Debt $211 Trillion?

What if U.S. debt isn't $14.3 trillion, but bigger by a factor of 14?

Bloomberg BusinessWeek, in "Why The Current Debt Crisis is Even Worse Than You Think," argues the true measure of U.S. debt ought to be the so-called fiscal gap. That's the present value of the difference between the nation's total revenues and its total obligations. That comes to $211 trillion.

Is Real U.S. Debt Figure $211 Trillion?

Facebook Dominant Social Network for SMBs

Among the 44 percent of SMBs using social media, more than half (59 percent) spend less than $100 on social media marketing, however. As we often say, social media in some ways does not take lots of money, but it can take lots of time.
Where it comes to online marketing, small and medium-sized businesses have their work cut out for them.

Time- and money-strapped, SMB marketers often receive light budgets and minimal staff to help them promote their business and generate leads across a variety of formats ranging from social media to search marketing.

As a practical matter, according to Zoomerang, the first priorities are the company website and email marketing.

Social media, however, is gaining in momentum: 44 percent
of U.S. SMB decision-makers have used or are using social media in 2010, up 10 percentage points from 2010.

SMBs are sticking predominantly to the three main social networking sites: Facebook, Twitter and LinkedIn. 


However, SMBs were twice as likely to turn to Facebook (86%) as they were Twitter (33%) or LinkedIn (41%).

Facebook Dominant Social Network for SMBs

Google Faces Antitrust Scrutiny, Will Apple Be Next?

AT&T isn't the only major player facing a direct limitation on its ability to grow much bigger in its core markets. Google might be next. Google CEO Eric Schmidt will face a U.S. Senate hearing on Sept. 21, 2011 looking at whether the company is now so large and dominant that it now constitutes a monopoly.

The primary issue in this hearing is whether Google gives preference to its own websites or products in search results. History suggests Google might be a turning point of sorts.

In March 1998, Microsoft CEO Bill Gates faced a similar hearing. Two months later Microsoft was served with an antitrust suit, the effects of which only fully ended in 2010, some would argue. That's more than a decade of handcuffs.

A rational observer with a sense of history might wonder when it will be Apple's turn to meet the regulatory buzzsaw. Sooner or later, big and powerful technology and application companies run into the reality of government regulation. Telcos just are more used to it.

Google facing antitrust limits

Google Launches Wallet on Sprint

Google has released the first version of the Google Wallet app to Sprint. That means the Google Wallet app will be pushed to all Sprint Nexus S 4G phones through an over-the-air update. The app will be shown as“Wallet.”

Netflix Separates DVD, Streaming Businesses

It is hard to know for sure, but it is possible the recent bankruptcy of Borders bookstore might have played some role in convincing Netflix CEO Reed Hastings to move up the speed of the Netflix transition from DVD rental to streaming.

Netflix long has planned for such a move, but it is conceivable that the Borders bankruptcy, and clear sluggishness at Best Buy, could have convinced Netflix to move faster.

 Add new fourth generation wireless networks, tablet demand and faster uptake of smart phones and one can argue the business background for streaming is changing.

One also might note that creating a separate Qwikster business makes it easier to sell the whole DVD business, if desired.

Netflix steps up streaming effort

33% Of All Groupon Clones Have Been Shut Down Or Sold

One of the most common Groupon critiques is that the business is easily replicated. Yes, some might say, there are few barriers to entry. But there appear to be many barriers to success.

According to data from deals aggregator Yipit, 33 percent of daily deals sites have been shuttered or sold so far in 2011. That's 170 out of 530 deals sites overall. Growing operating costs appear to be an issue. 

Groupon spent about $7.99 to acquire each subscriber who actually redeemed a daily deal in the first quarter of 2010, according to regulatory filings. By the second quarter of 2011, that figure had nearly tripled to $23.46.

Overall, Groupon spent $378.7 million in marketing initiatives in the first half of 2011, up from $35.5 million in the same period a year earlier, according to regulatory filings. Many smaller websites don't have the war chest to compete, you might surmise.

At the same time, daily-deal sites also increasingly have to hire more salespeople to line up coupon offers from local merchants. Operating costs grow

Yes, there are few barriers to entry, but there appear to be significant barriers to success.

33% Of All Groupon Clones Have Been Shut Down Or Sold

The Voice Revenue Problem

Only 70 percent of households in Marshall County, Indiana have landlines in 2011, a figure that is expected to decrease to 50 percent in the next two years. That statistic is one important facet of the voice services business: people simply are starting to use their mobile devices as their primary “phones.”

The other important angle is less usage of voice communications overall, on both mobile and fixed connections. According to Nielsen, the average number of mobile phone calls we make is dropping every year, after hitting a peak in 2007. And our calls are getting shorter: In 2005 they averaged three minutes in length; now they’re almost half that.

Also, in part because of the prevalence of VoIP services, unit prices are under pressure. Servive provider executives are no dummies. They know all that, and already are moving ahead with initiatives that will replace lost revenue and still provide a growth path.

But there are lots of thorny, practical issues. Consider investment. How much should a rational executive invest in a declining business? How much should it try to innovate? What is the balance between support for growing businesses and networks, and declining businesses? When does network investment become stranded? What should executives do about all that?

The Voice Revenue Problem

AT&T Approaches Rivals to Save T-Mobile Bid

AT&T is approaching smaller rivals including MetroPCS Communications and Leap Wireless International to sell spectrum and subscribers as part of an attempt to save its $39 billion takeover of T-Mobile USA Inc., Bloomberg reports.



AT&T has also reached out to CenturyLink, Dish Network and Sprint Nextel Corp. to gauge their interest in buying assets, Bloomberg says.



Some may question the viability of those remedies, if the Department of Justice objection really is that the acquisition violates the concentration index it routinely uses.



One of the ways to measure market concentration is the Heffindahl-Hirshman Index or HHI, often used as a measure of market concentration. The HHI is the square of the percentage market share of each firm summed over the largest 50 firms in a market. Here is the pre-merger market HHI which already suggests that the market is uncompetitive. HHI is the problem


For some of us who just want a quick rule of thumb that tells you when there is potential antitrust concern, 30 percent market share tends to work.That has been the figure cable TV executives in the United States have worried about, and which the Federal Communication Commission at one point set as the limit of subscriber market share for any U.S. cable operator. Both AT&T and Verizon Wireless already have market share that exceeds that figure.




The Justice Department will generally investigate any merger of firms in a market where the HHI exceeds 1,000 and will very likely challenge any merger if the HHI is greater than 1,800. With a HHI over 2,300 any deal will be heavily scrutinized and most likely rejected. Even a merger between T-Mobile USA and Sprint, with a resulting 28 percent market share, would probably not be allowed on the same antitrust grounds.

U.S. Carrier Market Concentration based on Subscribers
Company	Pre-MergerMarket Share	MarketShareSquared
Sprint Nextel	17%	412.3106
Verizon	34%	583.0952
AT &T	31%	556.7764
T-Mobile USA	11%	331.6625
MetroPCS	3%	173.2051
Leap Wireless	2%	141.4214
U.S. Cellular	2%	141.4214
Herfindahl-Hirshman Index	2339.8925

It isn’t clear how much of T-Mobile USA AT&T can shed to satisfy DoJ that there is not an HHI problem, because, by definition, AT&T already has an HHI problem. 


If the issue is the HHI, some divestitures won't help. HHI is the issue


Oddly enough, even the oft-suggested merger of Sprint and T-Mobile USA might now be impossible for regulatory reasons, and that had not been among the big concerns observers have mentioned about that particular pairing. The big issues there were seen to be incompatible networks and the complexity of managing four air interfaces at a time. If DoJ sticks with the HHI test, regulatory approval would have to become the biggest obstacle.

AT&T Approaches Rivals to Save T-Mobile Bid

Google Wallet Launching September 19, 2011

Google Wallet, Google's mobile payment and daily deals service, will officially launch Sept. 19, 2011, TechCrunch says. Google Wallet lets you load your credit cards to its app and tap your NFC-enabled phone to a special reader to make purchases.

It also ties in Google Offers, Google's semi-new Groupon clone. That means whenever you buy a Google Offer from a local vendor, Google Wallet automatically factors in your discount when you make the purchase.

Google Wallet Launching September 19

Facebook Is Expected to Unveil Media-Sharing Service - NYTimes.com

Facebook is expected to unveil a media platform that will allow people to easily share their favorite music, television shows and movies, effectively making the basic profile page a primary entertainment hub. In other words, Facebook will become a content distributor in a more active way, if not a direct way, at the moment.

Facebook, which has more than 750 million users, has not revealed its plans, but the company is widely expected to announce the service at its F8 developers’ conference.

Facebook to Unveil Media-Sharing Service

Netflix’s DVD business: Does Qwikster have a future?

Most, perhaps all of the commentary about the Netflix decision to create separate streaming and DVD by mail businesses seems to be negative. Netflix says the separation will provide an easier user experience, but a fair-minded person might question that position.

Creating two separate billing entities, with different and distinct commenting and rating systems, with the need to update two different sites when personal or billing data changes, is hard to envision, as an enhancement.

Some users will gladly trade off selection for immediacy. As Netflix moves toward offering more TV content, that could change. Netflix users might find they have a wider selection of TV content to choose from, compared to Qwikster users. For TV-centric viewers, that could be the tipping point. For movie-centric users, the tipping point might be quite some time away.

Perhaps most think the separation, which could result in better management of each entity, might speed the demise of the DVD operation. The transition is likely to be more gradual than many expect. The reason is the value proposition. Right now, the streaming operation simply does not offer the content richness that the DVD by mail option can offer. And in a content business, breadth of content matters.

Does Qwikster have a future?

Google Wallet Launch Largely Symbolic?

Google might be launching its Google Wallet service soon, a move some would say is more of a "private beta" than a "public beta," given the small number of people equipped with devices featuring near field communications, and the relatively small number of retail locations where those phones can be used to shop.

Changing consumer behavior could prove challenging in the near term, many would say. Using plastic cards is comfortable and familiar to most people and many users will seen no reason to alter their behavior, unless there are deals or other incentives to get them to adopt mobile payments.

That last point is why some of us think "daily deals," social shopping, promotion and marketing apps must be part of the emerging mobile payments and mobile wallet business. If the payments system isn't broken, there is no driver for a "fix." What could alter the value-hassle or value-price equation is significant new value.

Google Wallet Launch Largely Symbolic

Netflix Splits in 2: Why?

Netflix says it is separating its DVD by mail and streaming operations into two separate business units, with Netflix retaining the current brand name, while a different "Qwikster" brand being created for the DVD by mail business. Netflix splits in 2

"Streaming and DVD by mail are becoming two quite different businesses, with very different cost structures, different benefits that need to be marketed differently, and we need to let each grow and operate independently," says Netflix CEO Reed Hastings.

Qwikster will be the same website and DVD service that everyone is used to. It is just a new name, and DVD members will go to qwikster.com to access their DVD queues and choose movies.

Qwikster will add a video games upgrade option, similar to the current upgrade option for Blu-ray, for those who want to rent Wii, PS3 and Xbox 360 games.

Hastings says the separate, non-integrated websites will offer greater simplicity for users, though that might be a point of contention.

Each website will be focused on just one thing (DVDs or streaming), and will be even easier to use, Hastings argues. But a negative of the separation is that the Qwikster.com and Netflix.com websites will not be integrated.

Since about 60 percent of Netflix subscribers appear to pay for both streaming and DVD access, the implication is that 60 percent of users now will get two separate bills, have to use two different sites, and see partial sets of recommendations and reviews on each site. If you rate or review a movie on Qwikster, it doesn’t show up on Netflix.

"If you subscribe to both services, and if you need to change your credit card or email address, you would need to do it in two places," Hastings says.

What is clear is that it will be better for Netflix. The price move was not a “decision,” so much as a “reality” presented to Netflix from the content owners in Hollywood, argues Bill Gurley, a venture capitalist at Benchmark Capital. The first sale doctrine  likely is involved. Basically, under U.S. law a product (a DVD) can be purchased and then lent or sold without further payment of royalties to content owners. 


The key point is that "first sale" does not apply to streaming services. If you want to know why content owners prefer streaming to DVD rentals, that's the reason: they make more money. 


Netflix must negotiate for each and every streamed title, and the price of the right to stream that digital title is up to the whim of the content owner. If an owner says "no," no distributor can get access. Copyright rules under "first sale"

If you assume Hollywood stuidos wanted a price per month per user to license streamed content, there is an economic problem for Netflix. Netflix obviously would prefer to pay only for content that users actually watch. 

By separating the two businesses, Netflix actually pays less (if the scenario is correct) because the number of potential subscribers is less. Though susceptible to the charge it has made a bit of a kludge out of its business, Netflix might have been forced to do so for financial reasons beyond its control. 

Android and iOS apps combined hit 1 million

Android and iOS combined for a total of one million applications, according to app tracker Apps Fire.

This number shows all applications that have been developed on both platforms, but doesn’t mean that today you’ll find exactly one million apps if you combine the two largest mobile app stores, since some apps run on both platforms.

It isn't always so easy to figure out what it all means, though.

Some apps are helpful for branding or marketing, while others actually represent new products and categories. A million Android and iOS apps

Large brands use apps to create or support major ad campaigns, for example. In other cases, such as mobile gaming, apps arguably represent a new category of "games" that increasingly compete with console gaming.

In the former case, apps are helpful in the same way that other channels are helpful; in the latter case the foundation for whole new revenue streams or business segments.

In a third set of cases, mobile apps are more about user engagement, making it easy for users to interact with content sites they also use when in tablet or PC mode. In yet other cases, mobile apps create a capability that might have indirect or direct monetization potential, but are important for the displacement of other apps that represent a revenue stream.

Facebook Mobile Messenger, for example, could disrupt mobile service provider text messaging revenue. Facebook Mobile Messenger

Google Wallet to Launch Sept. 19, 201?

Will Google Wallet launch this month, perhaps even on Sept. 19, 2011?

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Google Wallet

Much Google+ Activity is Hidden

It's hard to remember that Google+ is still in "private beta." It hasn't even gotten to "public beta" yet. Nor is it really possible to determine how much engagement Google+ is getting.

Private posts will not show up in any third party statistic reports and so it instantly skews the results. According to ManageFlitter’s statistics, Google public posts have dropped by 41 percent in the past two months. While it could indicate a decrease in Google usage, it could just as easily indicate a choice to have more control over who sees your posts.

Also, my subjective use of Google+ does not revolve around public posts, or even posts. I use it every day, typically multiple times a day, for content consumption. None of that will tend to show up in posting activity. That might not be what most people do, or what Google intended. But my activity has grown over time. Only Google knows what is happening across the breath of its user base.

Google+ activity is hiddenGoogle:

Consumers Are Not Tired of Deals

A survey of nearly 1,000 U.S. online users by Utpal Dholakia, professor of management at Rice University finds that they are not yet tired of daily deals. Quite the opposite: Shoppers who tend to purchase the most daily deals continue to remain enthusiastic about them.

Only 13 percent of experienced and heavy daily-deal users agreed with the statement: "I buy daily deals less often than I used to," according to the study, published in conjunction with Cornell University. Only eight percent agreed with the statement: "I have lost interest in daily deals over time."

BAI/Kelsey, a local media and ad research firm, also has raised its forecast for daily deal revenue. U.S. consumer spending on deals, including daily deals, instant deals and flash sales, will grow to $4.2 billion in 2015 from $873 million in 2010. While the bump in its 2015 projection is only up slightly, the projection for 2011 revenue was revised to $2 billion, up 66% since the March estimate.

Think Consumers Are Tired of Deals?