Thursday, January 6, 2011

Gartner Says Worldwide IT Spending to Grow 5.1 Percent in 2011

The telecom equipment market is poised for strong growth in 2011, with worldwide telecom equipment spending forecast to grow 9.1 percent, according to Gartner. Strong sales of mobile devices are largely responsible.

In absolute terms the most significant change occurred in the mobile services forecast. A combination of updated connection data, increased average revenue per unit in certain countries and stronger local currencies resulted in an upward revision of our mobile service forecast across 2010 through 2014. The CAGR for global mobile services revenue from 2009 through 2014 has been increased to 7 percent, up from 5.3 percent.

Gartner Says Business Intelligence Will Go Mobile

By 2013, 33 percent of business intelligence functionality used by enterprise workers will be consumed via handheld devices, says Gartner.

Also, by 2014, Gartner expects 40 percent of spending on business analytics will go to system integrators, not software vendors. That would be a significant change.

Traditionally, organizations bought products almost exclusively from software companies and system integrators then helped the buyer to implement them.

However, the growth of user-driven initiatives, external information sources and the integration of unstructured content make this traditional approach increasingly risky and potentially uncompetitive.

Buyers can now evaluate solutions – for example marketing campaign effectiveness in financial services, as total packages, and select a lead provider, often a service provider, to deliver it. That leaves lots of room for changes in the supply infrastructure, with app providers becoming integrators.

At first, mobile business intelligence will largely consist of existing reports and dashboards ported to the mobile device but by 2012, Gartner predicts that organizations and vendors will develop mobile analytic applications for specific tasks or domains.

Wednesday, January 5, 2011

Near Field Communications for Retail: 3 Basic Modes

Some idea of the things near field communications might mean for mobile payments in retail settings can be gleaned from the three basic communication modes. In "passive" mode, the mobile device sends data to a terminal (cash register or card reader). That's the same sort of thing people do today with automated toll booth readers. Obviously there are some basic payment functions this will work for.

In "active" mode the NFC device can exchange data with another powered NFC device. Obviously one can image many more things that would be possible in active mode, from authentication to in-store messaging and queries.

In card emulation mode, NFC can replicate the functional capabilities of payment cards, mass transit ticketing cards, building entry cards and others. Data flows from the NFC device to the card-reading device—a contactless point of sale (PoS) terminal, turnstile or building entry device.

In active reader mode, NFC can grab information from passive NFC tags to run applications, visit Web sites, call people or perform any other number of actions executable by a mobile phone. Data flows from the tag to the NFC device.

In peer-to-peer mode, an NFC device can link to other NFC devices in much the same way Bluetooth currently does, but it has greater security. The greatest number of in-store loyalty and other apps will use P2P.

Cisco Videoscape Suggests How Hard Cable Operators Are Working at Integrating Online Video

Cisco today announced the release of Cisco Videoscape, a TV platform for service providers that brings together digital TV and online content with social media and communications applications. Videoscape is part of Cisco's overall video strategy to provide the next generation of TV that is simpler for consumers, and is intended to support cable operators anxious to integrate online video with linear video.

Cisco is currently working with several major global service provider customers, including Telstra, to enable next-generation video experiences through the Videoscape platform.

Cisco's View of the Video Future

Facebook Has More Than 600 Million Users

Users aren't "revenue," and neither are "eyeballs." But it can help. Facebook has 600 million monthly active users, according to a document Goldman Sachs is showing clients interested in investing in Facebook.

To the extent that Facebook increasingly is seen as a useful advertising venue, those users or eyeballs are going to be important, at some point.

Is Google Now Microsoft? Facebook Bull Thinks So

Rare is the company that keep up hyper levels of revenue growth forever. Even if you agree with this view, Facebook itself is going to be "legacy," sooner or later.

Tablets, Internet TVs will Lead Consumer Electronics Show

Not all Consumer Electronics Innovations Get Adopted

By some rough estimates, only about 20 percent of new consumer electronics products actually succeed in a significant way, in terms of sales. Here are some that, in the past, didn't make it.

U.S. Consumer Technology Sales: Smartphones, Tablets, E-Readers Gain

U.S. consumer technology holiday sales declined five percent in 2010 totaling $10.3 billion, according to the NPD Group.

The traditional categories felt significant spending pressure from smartphones, tablet and e-reader sales, as well as the rebound in the video game market. Overall NPD estimates that 2010 sales for the 9 week sales period will total $14.9 billion down 4 percent from last year.

What is significant here is that all three of the strong categories are mobile products.

Notebook unit volume fell 9 percent with little to no discounting, as average selling prices remained flat. Netbook unit volume declined 38 percent compared to the 2009 season and accounted for 19 percent of Windows' notebook sales, down from 27 percent of last year's volume. Desktop sales also took a hit dropping 16 percent in units.

Mobile Payment Among Top-5 Trends for 2011

Mobile payments are expected to be among the top-five trends in the payments business in 2011. Mobile devices are poised to become a primary form of payment for millions of people around the world, according to the Aite Group.

Mobile bill payments will reach $214 billion in gross dollar volume in 2015, up from $16 billion in 2010, which represents a 68 percent compound annual growth rate. A November 2010 Aite Group report stated “Over the past 12 to 18 months, the United States has begun to move closer to a tipping point that will lead to the popularization of mobile payments.

Frontier plans big FiOS TV rate hike

Frontier Communications Corp. plans a big rate hike for some of its FiOS cable TV customers in Oregon and Washington.

Rates will rise 46 percent or more for standard cable plans, the result, Frontier says, of rate hikes by the cable networks. If you ever wanted an illustration of the impact content rights have on smaller firms, this is it. Verizon obviously is able to negotiate lower content rights rates, as it has more volume, and programming rates are tiered based on volume.

The higher rates won't immediately affect customers who have Frontier FiOS TV contracts. But for customers without a contract, and customers whose contracts are expiring, the rate hikes will be steep.

For example, the monthly cost of Frontier's standard, 220-channel package will rise from $65 to $95 a month -- a 46 percent increase. The higher rates kicked in Monday for new customers, and start February 18 for existing customers without a service contract.

Internet Gains on Television as Public's Main News Source

The internet is slowly closing in on television as Americans’ main source of national and international news, according to researchers at the Pew Research Center for People and the Press.

Currently, 41 percent say they get most of their news about national and international news from the internet, which is little changed over the past two years but up 17 points since 2007. 

Television remains the most widely used source for national and international news, overall. About 66 percent of Americans say it is their main source of news, but that is down from 74 percent three years ago and 82 percent as recently as 2002.

Click image for larger view

Tuesday, January 4, 2011

Netflix Button Coming to Remote Controls

Netflix has struck deals with makers of TVs and DVD players to put a one-click “Netflix” button on remotes starting this spring, Netflix says.

Such a button would make it easier for people to go straight to their Netflix account, rather than clicking through other menus, which take time and could potentially distract the viewer.

This reminds me of the "icon on the screen" or "icon in the system tray" discussions people used to have in an earlier wave of online media, about 2000, when it was assumed the display would be a PC, and therefore the value of on-screen real estate was deemed valuable.

It isn't a trivial advantage, as icons on main smartphone screens are seen as having value, or as preloaded software typically is seen as having business value.

Netflix Button Coming to Remote Controls (Wall Street Journal subscription required)

Hispanic Consumers are "Ideal" Online Consumers

A new digital marketing study conducted by comScore and commissioned by Terra reveals that Hispanics are the ideal online consumers.

The research also re-affirms that the Internet is the main media source of information for Hispanics when researching information about any service or product.

For example, Hispanics are more responsive to targeted ads with 37 percent saying they would likely respond to them vs. 30 percent for non-Hispanics.

Some 35 percent of Hispanics compared to 27 percent of non-Hispanics said they are more open to advertising on sites where they read or contribute user generated comments.

Some 37 percent of Hispanics, compared to 25 percent of non-Hispanics enjoy the interactivity of online video ads, and the ability of obtaining additional information which is unavailable through a traditional TV ad.

Furthermore, 36 percent of Hispanics, compared to 24 percent of non-Hispanics claim that Internet advertising has motivated them to visit a retail establishment while 35 percent of Hispanics, compared to 25 percent of non-Hispanics are likely to attend movies based on their online campaigns.

The study also shows Hispanics are more open and willing to explore new technology presumably to stay up to speed with trends. In addition, these initiatives are likely to enhance their perception of the brand with 60 percent of Hispanics, compared to 42 percent of non-Hispanics saying that they react positively to I-Pad demonstrations, virtual shoppers, mobile coupons, live streamings and others.


A La Carte is a 20th Century Solution to a 21st Century Problem

If in 2011, larger numbers of TV viewers become more screen-agnostic, using Hulu, Netflix, mobile video to a greater extent than they do today, with their demonstrated appetites for 'snackable' video clips of all sorts, and as major TV distributors and appliance vendors ramp up sales of devices that allow Internet-delivered TV to be viewed on standard TV screens, it is possible more questions are going to be asked about the future of linear TV.

That would come as no surprise. It is not clear whether older debates about allowing or forcing linear TV to be offered channel-by-channel, in a la carte fashion, will resurface. Right now, it seems unlikely. Nor is it especially likely any of the leading linear video distributors will reverse course and suddenly decide their business models are better served by a widespread shift to a la carte viewing.

Most important of all, content owners and program networks do not yet see the value of a la carte buying. Content businesses are all about the content, fundamentally. Without access to the "hot" content lots of people want, any distribution channel will enjoy modest success.

Is Cable TV "Toast"?

There was a time when a reasonable person might have questioned the extent of demand for 'cable TV.' Why people would pay extra when they could just watch broadcast TV did not seem to make sense. But then cable TV changed, transitioning from its original 'antenna reception' to the 'more choice' platform it uses today.

Lots of observers have to be wondering whether something about that significant could happen within the next decade or so. Granted, that pace of change would seem glacially slow to people expecting change at the rate of web apps, but the TV ecosystem is much more highly integrated, unlike the loosely-coupled Internet ecosystem.

But that same loose coupling could be a huge issue if content owners and networks decide to make lots more content available for Internet streaming, and if the rest of the supporting ecosystem can get critical mass. Those are big 'ifs.'

Still, even some executives in the multichannel video business seem convinced huge changes are possible. Shawn Strickland, Verizon VP, says the firm, which offers FiOS TV, now believes a substantial amount of video cord cutting will happen.

'We've been looking at this issue for the better part of a year, and our perspective has pretty much done a 180 to a belief now that pay-TV 'cord cutting' will happen,' he says."

Infonetics Research - Telecom outsourcing thriving; Ericsson, NSN, ALU, Huawei: soon running 3/4 of world’s networks?

By the end of 2010, telecom service providers worldwide will have outsourced about $53.5 billion worth of networking tasks to equipment vendors, eight percent more than they outsourced in 2009, according to Stéphane Téral, Infonetics Research
principal analyst.

The trend is more prevalent among mobile networks than fixed networks. In 2008 revenue from mobile and fixed network outsourcing was roughly the same; by 2014, mobile network outsourcing will grow to account for 61 percent of all network outsourcing, says Téral.

The major growth areas for telecom network outsourcing include network maintenance, planning, design, and operations
Much of the growth in outsourced services is coming from EMEA (Europe, Middle East, Africa) and Asia Pacific, and to a lesser extent, Central and Latin America, with the Oi-Nokia Siemens deal in Brazil and activity increasing in Mexico.

One might argue that mobile network outsourcing is an easier proposition because the labor intensity of a mobile access network is vastly less complicated than a fixed network, and corresponding ability to create service quality differentiation are correspondingly reduced in a mobile setting. Some video entertainment providers have in the past outsourced installation chores to contractors, with mixed results. For brand management, many firms now believe they have to control their own installation and repair staffs, rolling stock and so forth.

Mobile operators do not have the premises wiring, premises equipment and cable, wire and active element issues that fixed network providers do, making outsourcing of access network duties an easier proposition.

Firefox overtakes Internet Explorer in Europe

Firefox overtook Microsoft's Internet Explorer to become the number one browser in Europe in December 2010 according to StatCounter. StatCounter Global Stats reports that in December, Firefox took 38 percent of European market share, compared to IE's 37.5 percent.

'This is the first time that IE has been dethroned from the number one spot in a major territory,' commented Aodhan Cullen, CEO, StatCounter. "This appears to be happening because Google's Chrome is stealing share from Internet Explorer while Firefox is mainly maintaining its existing share," said Cullen.

Google Chrome has grown to 14.6 percent compared to five percent in December 2009.

Lots of Ways to Over-Simplify Mobile Business

Over-simplistic analysis of the mobile service provider, or fixed-line business, is easy to understand. It's a complicated business in many ways, and complicated stories are hard to tell. "Rich service providers gouging customers" is a vastly-easier storyline than many others.

As some of you know, I'd argue that the U.S. communications business faces very-serious challenges. In fact, fixed line providers face issues more analogous to the U.S. steel, auto and textile industries than anything else. That is to say, the traditional business of selling voice services for money is a sunset business. That is not to say voice communications is any less important for most people, most of the time, and for all people at least some of the time.

It is to say that a highly capital intensive business that is losing its historic business model has radical transformation before it, or an unpleasant demise. I think everybody would agree that broadband and mobile communications are an important foundation for economic success, and that such success cannot be taken for granted. For such reasons, virtually all observers might argue it is a wise policy to encourage investment in the business, as well as investment to create a higher-quality broadband access infrastructure.

Chetan Sharma, an independent analyst, estimates that U.S. carriers will generate about $165 billion in revenues in 2010. Of the total, nearly $55 billion will come from sales of data services alone. That factoid, taken in isolation, can be used to argue that service providers are making way more money from their capital investments than might be justified, or at least that such investments prove the business is sound, since carriers invest about $30 billion to $50 billion annually.

I wouldn't characterize matters that way. It now is tough to raise significant capital for infrastructure, as investors aren't generally dumb. They can see that the business model is challenged, and that new revenue sources beyond voice and even broadband access must be created. That is no less true of the mobile side of the business than of the fixed-line side of the business.

Mission-critical industries that are declining, are not places to create new burdens, one might argue. You might wonder why debates about communications, and what has to be done, so rarely are positioned that way. I'd argue there are sound reasons.

No executive of a public company is going to say anything contrary to the notion that "we face challenges, but have plans in place to meet those challenges." Critics of the industry will always position carriers and service providers as rich, monopolistic, uncaring providers who need to be reined in. Some will argue, in private, that they need to be vanquished, one way or the other.

That isn't to argue that the major providers are not powerful generators of revenue. It isn't so clear they are powerful generators of profit, but for the moment just focus on the revenue. If you believe an ultimate loss of perhaps 50 to 80 percent of the current revenue are inevitable, the strategic picture is quite different. The U.S. steel industry, or auto industry, once appears that way as well.

But those industries could not, or would not, radically change. The strategic challenges are huge. If somebody told you, whatever your current occupation or business, that you would lose half to 80 percent of your revenue in perhaps 10 years, and that every step of the way between here and there would feature more pressure, I doubt you'd appreciate being saddled with obstacles that reduced your current income faster, and limited your ability to reposition, as you fought to change.

The argument that advanced communications will be expensive and difficult to finance, and that obstacles should not be placed in the way, is just a practical response to market conditions that seem almost self evident. Sure, there will always be legitimate issues about abuse of power. But nobody worries about abuse of power in the textile, auto or steel industries, because their "power" evaporated with their business fortunes.

Advanced communications is too important to let wither, and there are clear obstacles to the investment we need to be making. Ripping the profit out of the business is a good way to block the advances we need.

Is Usage-Based Billing A Big Deal?

Bell Canada's request to bill customers, both retail and wholesale, based on how much end users or wholesale partners consume each month, in gigabytes, predictably causes outrage in some quarters, but should not, in actuality, affect the typical consumer at all.

The typical consumer doesn't actually consume all that much data on a monthly basis. Comcast, for some time, for example, has had a monthly 'cap' of 250 gigabytes per household. But the typical household really consumers about two gigabytes to four gigabytes a month.

Primus, a Bell Canada wholesale customer, apparently is notifying its customers that existing high-speed access customers will soon have 25 GBytes of monthly usage included with their service. Additional usage up to 300 GBytes will be charged at $2 per additional GByte, up to a maximum of $60 a month.

Usage in excess of 300 GBytes per month will be charged an additional $1.10 per GByte. Customers who are worried about the 25 Gbyte cap can buy an 'additional usage plan' costing $5 a month for an additional 40 GBytes, for starters.

Typical users won't notice a thing.

Will Mobile Payments Enable Mobile Marketing?

Deborah Baxley, Principal, Global financial services, Capgemini, would not be the first or only analyst who suspects mobile payments capabilities will be intimately connected to a number of mobile marketing approaches, ranging from barcodes, numbered coupons, text messages, sticker-based loyalty programs, to use of near field communications to turn the mobile phone into a digital wallet.

Early results show much higher response rates than traditional marketing, such as paper coupons. Secure chip technology is expected to be the ultimate solution, optimizing usability, convenience, security and consumer opt-in.

Google to Enter Mobile Payments Business?

Google is considering building a payment and advertising service that would let users buy goods at retail locations by tapping or waving their mobile phones against a register at checkout, BusinessWeek reports. The noteworthy angle is the linkage between the payment function and the advertising function; payments and location; payments and local advertising and promotion.

Many observers think the ultimate value of near field communications mobile payments or mobile wallet services will lie in a range of value the systems provide, beyond the actual retail payments feature.

Cash for Content Online - Pew Research Center

About 65 percent of respondents polled by the Pew Internet & American Life Project have paid to download or access some kind of online or other intangible content from the internet, ranging from music to games to news articles.

Music, software, and apps are the most popular content that internet users have paid to access or download, although the range of paid online content is quite varied and widespread.

In a survey of 755 internet users between Oct. 28 and Nov. 1 2010, respondents were asked about 15 different kinds of online material that could be purchased or accessed after a payment. The online content assessed in this survey includes only 'intangible' digital products such as software, articles and music that need not have a physical form.

Some 33 percent of respondents say they have paid for digital music online, the same percentage reporting they have paid for software. About 21 percent have paid for apps for their cell phones or tablet computers. Some 19 percent report they have paid for digital games.

About 18 percent have paid for digital newspaper, magazine or journal articles or reports, while 16 percent have paid for videos, movies or TV shows.

Some 15% have paid for ringtones, while 11 percent have paid for members-only premium content from a website that has other free material on it. About 10 percent have paid for e-books.

Spending between $1 to $20 a month might not seem like a big deal, but it is a significant amount of spending, especially recurring spending, for any popular consumer service. 

Insufficient Battery Life is Just a Fact of Life

Kaufman Bros. equity analyst Shaw Wu has been claiming that the new Research in Motion PlayBook has battery life issues. Wu says he would be “very surprised if PlayBook matches anywhere near the battery life of the iPad at 10 hours unless it uses a larger battery.”

Some of the issues are application related, as has been the case for other categories of devices, such as smartphones.

The PlayBook supports Flash, and Flash is a resource hog, says Wu. “As seen in recent tests for the new MacBook Air, use of Flash can cut battery life in half," he says.

QNX, the operating system on which PlayBook is to run, wasn’t designed for it full mobile use. It was intended for devices drawing power from a wall socket or car battery.

RIM’s implementation of power management is not as well-integrated as that of its rivals–particularly Apple, whose homegrown A4 system-on-chip enables the company to deliver superior battery life, he argues.

To be sure, longish battery life is always a plus for any mobile device. On the other hand, most smartphone users will tell you that if they actually use their smartphones for web-based apps, battery life goes way down. Sure, you can restrict your usage to voice and text only, but then what's the point of having a smartphone?

There might be issues that RIM has to work on. Still, even under the best of conditions, a smartphone is going to run through its charge quickly if much web activity occurs. Tablets have a larger form factor, so can handle a bigger battery. But less than optimal battery life just comes with the territory.

US Tablet Sales Will More Than Double This Year

Forrester Research has revised its estimate for U.S. consumer tablet purchases for 2010 upward to 10.3 million units, and the firm expects sales to more than double in 2011 to 24.1 million units.

Of those sales, the lion's share will be iPads, and despite many would-be competitors that will be released at CES, we see Apple commanding the vast majority of the tablet market through 2012.

One major assumption that changed in the Forrester Research model is the replacement rate, which the firm now believes will be closer to that of MP3 players or iPhones than to that of PCs.

Although they are certainly used for productivity, tablets are proving themselves to be "lifestyle devices" at home and at work, and as such we think consumers will upgrade to newer models more rapidly than they would a more utilitarian device like a PC.

Forrester Research, though originally optimistic about tablet prospects, says it underestimated demand. I'd have to say I was not so sure about them, at first. There typically are two fundamental paths for a PC type device to establish a permanent place in the market. The devices must displace an existing category, or must create a brand-new category. So far, there remain elements of both types of activity.

But the longer term trend seems to be that a new category actually is being created, more akin to MP3 players than PCs. For consumers who mostly want a content consumption device, the tablet can replace a PC.

For users who must create content and "do work," the tablet represents an additional category of devices to own and use.

2011 Social Media Predictions: Now Social Media Marketing Gets Tough | Forrester Blogs

Though some might disagree, there is a line of thinking suggesting that "social media does not make marketing any easier."

Although it is a powerful tool for marketers to reinforce their brands, energize advocates and strengthen relationships, it is also yet another marketing channel that requires attention, investment and innovation, argues Forrester Research analyst Augie Ray.

In 2011, social media marketing doesn’t get any easier, either, he argues. Primary among those challenges is that social media is becoming an awfully cluttered and noisy space. On top of that, one always can find loads of social media experts who claim to have unusual insight into making social media work. Some of us just think it is a lot of blocking and tackling, more than a matter of strategy, tools and optimization techniques.

Sprint Launches HTC EVO Shift and 4G MiFi

Sprint has announced the launch of the HTC "EVO Shift" 4G and MiFi 3G/4G Mobile Hotspot by Novatel Wireless. With these two devices, Sprint has now introduced 17 4G-capable devices for consumers and business, including three phones, a 4G netbook and notebook from Dell, numerous USB modem options, and several mobile hotspots and routers.

“Sprint will continue to set the bar for feature-rich and customer-friendly 4G devices into 2011,” said Dan Hesse, Sprint CEO. “Our proven leadership as a 4G pioneer has allowed our customers to enjoy 4G from Sprint first, and these new products exemplify Sprint’s commitment to put industry-leading performance and capabilities in the hands of our customers.

How Many 4G Networks are Too Many?

LightSquared could spend between $1.25 billion and $1.5 billion on deploying its LTE network in the United States in 2011, according to Avian Securities LLC .

Catharine Trebnick, Avian's senior research analyst, estimates that LightSquared could start service in initial markets as early as June or July this year with nine Midwest markets expected to be lit up this year as well.

So a reasonable observer might ask "how many national 4G networks are too many?" Given that Verizon, AT&T, Sprint, Clearwire, T-Mobile USA and MetroPCS all plan or are building such networks now, LightSquared would make seven such national networks (whether each network is "4G" now is a marketing question, not a "technology" question, now that the International Telecommunications Union has said all such networks are, in fact, "4G," even if none of them actually matches the ITU's own standards).

Based on past experience, seven national mobile broadband networks is likely an unstable market condition. One might argue that three to four operators is about as many as can profitably exist in the U.S. market. Virtually nowhere are five to seven operators considered viable.

Clearwire Speculation is Inevitable

Craig McCaw's resignation as Clearwire chairman is bound to raise some questions about the company's future, though McCaw's investment group owns only about four percent of the firm's total equity. Still, a high-profile resignation of this type is bound to provoke questions.

Michael Mahoney, senior managing director for Falcon Point Capital LLC, is among those who think the departure is significant. "He is Clearwire," Mahoney says. "So you sort of think, 'Geez, are they going under?'"

Others will simply suggest that some major change of ownership is coming, and that any new majority or sole owner will name a new chairman. Nor is an ultimate Clearwire sale an unusual thought. Perhaps few analysts would ever have predicted that Clearwire would remain in business, under its own name, as an independent company, indefinitely.

No company Craig McCaw ever has founded has remained independent. Sprint already owns between 54 percent and 57 percent of Clearwire, depending on how one measures. And most observers would say six national 4G networks is an unstable situation.

Monday, January 3, 2011

Google has "Groupon" Options, Says Mayer

So long, broadband duopoly?

Analysts at the Federal Communications Commission appear to agree with forecasts that project 90 percent of the U.S. population is likely to have access to broadband networks capable of peak download speeds in excess of 50 Mbps as cable systems upgrade to DOCSIS 3.0. See http://www.broadband.gov/download-plan.

But FCC analysts also estimate that about 15 percent of the U.S. population is likely to be able to choose between two providers, both cable a telco. At first glance, this would seem to be a problem for most telcos other than Verizon.

If in fact a large percentage of the U.S. broadband customer base does decide to buy 50-Mbps services, or even faster services, many telcos are going to be at a huge disadvantage, if one assumes broadband access will be the foundation service for most telcos.

As necessity typically is the mother of invention, one wonders whether ways of using fiber-to-neighborhood networks will be capable of upgrading to speeds not possible so far, much as cable operators are working on new ways to boost their own broadband speeds. One should not discount the possibility, or the incentives for suppliers to come up with such solutions.

On the other hand, "headline" speeds, as important as they are for marketing purposes, might not necessarily correspond to consumer buying preferences in the near term, or even in the medium term. So far, few U.S. consumers have decided 50 Mbps access services were valuable enough to buy them, where such services are available.

If that remains the case, services offering 20 Mbps or 25 Mbps might be good enough, at least for the medium term, and urban fiber-to-neighborhood networks ought to be able to reach 40 Mbps, as Qwest already offers in Denver, for example.

Telcos with lower density serving areas and longer loop lengths will find it rather expensive to match that sort of speed using any hybrid network (fiber distribution, copper access). But much might hinge on the actual state of end user demand (willingness to pay).

Nor should observers think there is no more speed that can be wrung out of all-copper access networks. A reasonable way of putting matters is that additional copper pairs can be bonded to achieve higher speeds. There are technical issues, of course, ranging from availability of requisite pairs in existing cable, and interference issues within cables. But researchers already are working on ways to create higher-speed circuits by using more extensive bonding.

Oddly enough, the dwindling number of fixed-line voice circuits actually helps to some extent, as it frees up additional copper pairs, in some cases. It isn't easy, but sometimes extensive pair bonding will prove workable. Beyond that, the costs of fiber-to-customer infrastructure continue to improve, especially where either aerial plant or underground conduit are in place.

So it is not clear that cable's current advantages are of a permanent nature. That might be the case, in some areas and perhaps in many areas. But telco executives have powerful incentives not to concede the long-term future.

And since all observers now agree that the goal of 100 Mbps, within a decade, is the aspirational target the market likely will support, technologists and business planners will be looking at any number of solutions. At one level, the issue is technological: how can it be done? At an equally important level, the issue is how to match investment to expected revenues.

One might argue that with multiple 4G wireless networks and growing use of mobile devices, actual end user demand at fixed locations might not grow as rapidly as some forecast. A large number of fast, but not super-fast connections--both mobile and fixed--might well prove quite workable.

That doesn't mean telco planners can avoid the work of figuring how to pay for and build networks running up to 100 Mbps at some medium term point in the future. But the scaling might wind up being more graceful than people sometimes assume.

Does Anyone Want Super Fast Wireless Service? - 24/7 Wall St.

Lost in the excitement about 4G is whether anyone will want to use it, says Douglas McIntyre, 27/7wallst.com analyst.

Consumers will have to buy a new handset in most cases to use the new networks, and there are few 4G handsets to choose from, at the moment. That is one reason why mobile broadband for PCs typically is a lead application for new 4G networks.

If 4G adoption is anything like 3G adoption, it might take a while before people figure out how and why to use it. For the moment, wireless service providers have other motivations, such as lowering the cost to deliver mobile broadband to end users. For the moment, that will be enough.

There's plenty of time to figure out what new "killer" apps will drive 4G adoption.

28 Percent of Cable Subscribers Might Switch to Web Video

JP Morgan equity analyst Imran Khan says a recent survey he conducted suggests that 28 percent of people would consider "cutting the cord" and substituting broadband-Internet-delivered entertainment video in place of their current multichannel video service.

Perhaps significantly, those who report they might consider such a change include at least some potential switchers from the 16 percent of people who report they are not unhappy with their current video provider.

The data is another example of the consumer marketing dilemmas service providers face. You would not be surprised if people who are unhappy with their service say they might switch. But even "satisfied" customers seem to be willing to consider a switch.

In some ways, of course, the survey doesn't indicate as much real churn potential, in the near term, as you would think. The questions do not actually test for the attributes an over-the-top substitute would have to feature, ranging from content choices to price and whether the video can be watched on one or more in-home TVs.

It is easy to say one might "consider switching." It is quite another thing to "consider switching" at high prices, or for services that are not equivalent to current offerings in meaningful ways. Most consumers do not watch more than seven to a dozen channels. If those 12 are among the sources a consumer could get "over the top," at a perceived reasonable price, then switching behavior is much more likely to occur.

At some combination of value, price and ease of use, switching will happen.

Sprint Declines Increased Clearwire Investment

Sprint Nextel let a Jan. 2, 2011 deadline pass without exercising its right to buy $760 million of Clearwire Corp convertible debt, ruling out that source of funding for Clearwire. It's a bit hard to tell what the decision means, beyond the obvious unwillingness on the part of Sprint to put more money into a venture that has become a source of tension.

Sprint already owns about 56 percent of Clearwire and uses its network to offer 4G services. Some might interpret the decision as a sign Sprint is not interested in buying the remainder of Clearwire. That might not necessarily be the case, though. If Sprint believes Clearwire will encounter difficulty, Sprint might be able to buy the remaining portions of the company for less money.

On the other hand, Sprint might have other ideas about where to deploy additional capital to support its 4G efforts. If Clearwire proceeds with its plans to sell off excess wireless spectrum, Sprint could purchase that spectrum and build its own LTE network.

Apple Dominates Holiday Mobile App Installs

Apple had 61.5 percent of the mobile app downloads, Android had 30.1 percent, according to Flixter. About 7.9 percent of app downloads over the holidays went to RIM devices and Windows Phone had 0.5 percent. The percentages were from 1,027,000 downloads over the holiday week.

Best Buy to Launch "Buy Back" Program?

Best Buy is reported to be planning a new "buy back" program aimed at keeping users who constantly upgrade their smartphones off-cycle, and who buy from Best Buy Mobile. The program reportedly will cost $59.99 at the time of handset purchase. Between months one and six of handset ownership, users can then trade-in their device to Best Buy Mobile for 50 percent of the phones full retail value.

Between months six and 12 the device can be turned in for 40 percent of its original value. Between months 19 to 25, users can get back 20 percent of the original retail value.

The offering likely will appeal to users who purchase new smartphones long before their two-year commitments have expired.

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28% Say They Plan to Buy a Kindle

Some 28 percent of Internet users surveyed by J.P. Morgan in December say they either own a Kindle or plan to buy one in the next year. That's a significant number, even if actual behavior doesn't exactly track expectations.

The Kindle is already Amazon's top-selling product, with an estimated more than five million sold since August, and with that kind of buyer intent, the e-reader will continue to be a hot item in 2011.

The survey also bolsters the claim of Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos that iPad owners are buying Kindles: 40 percent of iPad users surveyed already own one, and 23 percent plan to buy one in the next year.

Is Media Industry at a Crossroads?

When investment capital floods into any industry, you can be sure it is because of expectations of major growth. Conversely, when such capital does not get deployed, you can be equally sure that investors are skeptical about outsize returns.

So it might be said that a lack of fresh investment in "Hollywood" ventures signals lack of expectations. Still, many would argue that the entertainment industry remains at a critical inflection point.

That game-changer is already here in the form of technological innovation: new media, web-based streaming and the hardware that is catching up to these virtual-era breakthroughs. But all of those developments might lead investors to conclude that fresh capital is better deployed in companies that try to harness new media, not the legacy content creators.

TV apps will be key focus at CES 2011 - Lost Remote

While new tablets, smartphones and 3D television sets will grab much of the attention at the upcoming Consumer Electronics Show, perhaps another important theme will be the surge of internet-connected sets and TV apps.

“TV manufacturers see the opportunity to provide that content built in,” says Jason Oxman, senior vice president of the Consumer Electronics Association.

Apple Leads Smartphone Installed Base, Android Leads in Share

According to November data from The Nielsen Company, the popularity of the Android operating system among those who purchased a smartphone in the last six months (40 percent) makes it the leading OS in terms of market share, defined as new sales. Apple still leads in terms of installed base.

But despite its surge among recent acquirers, when it comes to overall installed base of users, Android OS (25.8 percent) is still behind Apple iOS (28.6 percent). RIM Blackberry’s position is less clear: Its share (26.1 percent) puts it within the margin of error of both Apple iOS and Android.

10 Huge Companies That Facebook Is Now Worth More Than

Facebook's recent investment from Goldman Sachs gives it a valuation of $50 billion, which makes it bigger, in terms of valuation, than Starbucks.

Facebook is worth more than United, American, Delta, JetBlue, and Southwest Airlines combined (About $32 billion combined market cap.

Valuations are what they are. But comparisons like this remind me of the Internet bubble at the turn of the century. Scary.

Facebook Worth $50 Billion?

Facebook has raised $500 million from Goldman Sachs and a Russian investor in a deal that values the company at $50 billion, according to the New York Times.

The deal makes Facebook now worth more than companies like eBay, Yahoo and Time Warner.

Wi-Fi Could Drive VPN or Mobile Broadband Demand

Firesheep allows anyone with a Firefox browser to hijack the sessions of anyone on the same Wi-Fi network using a few dozen popular content, commerce, and social-networking sites by snarfing cookies that pass in the clear.

A virtual private network connection that encrypts all data is the most-secure form of protection, but most people don't buy such service, which retails for $40 to $70 a month. Beyond that, Secure Socket Layer protection for email and HTTPS Everywhere for web browsing are helpful.

If a user wants security, and is willing to pay $40 to $70 a month, some of us might say "why bother?" with Wi-Fi and just buy a mobile broadband service. All the other tools to protect email and web browsing are available no matter what the connection, and a mobile broadband connection is arguably more secure than any public Wi-Fi connection is.

How Userful is Groupon?

How useful is Groupon, for people who aren't so attuned to the game of "finding deals?"

Saturday, January 1, 2011

Amazon iHTC EVO Shift 4G is Coming

Touchscreen interfaces generally are well received by end users, but there are just some activities that seem to work better when a QWERTY keyboard also is available. So many users who might like the HTC Evo and other touchscreen devices might want to take a look at the HTC Evo Shift, which adds a keyboard.

Amazon is gearing up for sales already, though pre-orders apparently aren't possible, yet. Apparently devices will cost $200 when bundled with a two-year contract. And for those who prefer the no-contract route, the device will cost $500.

Why Use SIP Trunking?

Saving money and simplifying communications are the traditional reasons for adoting SIP trunking. The actual business cases tends to vary quite a lot, though, based on an organization's readiness to use IP telephony and the existing level of tariffs any organization already is paying.

SIP trunking eliminates the need to purchase dedicated ISDN gateways when a premises IP telephony system is connected to the wide area voice networks. In addition, the services more flexible in terms of use of "channels" and bandwidth.

Some will argue that eliminating overhead and processing improves performance. In practice, one doesn't hear end users mentioning that advantage very much. It normally comes down to "can you save me money?"

9 Things Businesses Have Learned About Social Media

Someday, most businesses will use social media as they now embrace websites. Today, we are in the early stages of that transformation.

This is a reasonable summary of many of the issues organizations face only after they have started their social media programs, typically with Facebook or Twitter. Every organization experiments by adding new responsibilities to existing personnel.

Occasionally somebody gets "tasked" to do so, but almost always as an addition to existing duties. You can figure out what happens next. Organization executives are invited to help out, and that works for a little while, before the press of the business leads to waning participation.

Social media does not necessarily cost lots in terms of incremental out of pocket cost, But it takes time, and significant time if done properly.

In part, the generation of fresh content is part of the issue. A bigger issue is what happens when business partners or consumers actually start participating, or if an organization ramps up its optimization activities.

The other angle is that social media works best when lots of people within the organization are participating, and that can require a shift of organizational attitudes, support and practices that extend far beyond assigning somebody to "do it."

Mobile Video Models Still Uncertain

It is easy to forget that Qualcomm, AT&T and Verizon have been offering subscription-based mobile TV since 2004, though the FloTV service will be shut down.

Some will argue that video subscriptions don't resonate with consumers, though cable operators and others tend to have a different view, suggesting that both on-demand access and subscription-based models have a role to play.

According to Yankee Group surveys, at the moment only 12 percent of smartphone users watch live TV through a service provided by a carrier, while 37 percent stream content through a Web site. That should not be surprising, since streaming from many websites, such as YouTube, is essentially "free." One might wonder why the percentage of mobile video usage is not even more skewed to "no incremental cost" sources, in fact.

When it comes to specific content consumers want, 58 percent of smartphone users buy or rent content through online stores and download it either directly to the smartphone or to their PC and transfer it to the smartphone.

That might be a more-important observation. Application-specific devices can succeed, of course. Personal navigation units and e-readers are examples. But Flo TV required a special-purpose device, though, and that might not match current user preferences for watching TV directly on smartphones.

With any content product, the availability of highly-desired content always matters. In addition to the apparent lack of interest in the Flot TV dedicated TV-viewing device, one might argue there were cost and choice issues as well.

Choice here meant that other devices could support video consumption, including iTunes matched with portable or mobile devices, plus availability on Flo TV of many content types users might have wanted, but could not get when using the service. Also, many users might have simply decided that existing game consoles, PCs and smartphones are reasonable substitutes for casual viewing.

Cost also might have been an issue. Few video subscription services aside from Netflix have gotten much traction, no matter which devices are used to support consumption

Integrating Mobile with Existing Marketing Channels

Mobile doesn't make sense for any marketer if customers and prospects don't use the channel. But it is hard to argue with the proposition that just about everybody uses mobile these days, and more people are going to be using Web-enabled devices, meaning that more interactions with email and Web applications are going to be driven by mobile devices.

At the same time, there is little doubt that tablets now are becoming an established product category, meaning more overall usage will come from tablet devices that will offer different capabilities for marketers, both in terms of apps and apps using video and gaming.

Web analytics will inform a decision about how much mobile access a company's prospects and customers already are using.

If mobile visits are growing, consider optimizing a site for mobile. that generally includes advice such as removing JavaScript, Flash, ActiveX, and other proprietary technologies that might not support the mobile phone Web experience.

Site navigation can be tricky if it requires too many buttons and other "small" interface points.

Transaction-heavy sites might consider using WAP or smartphone applications that allow the user to complete regular transactions quickly and easily. The countervailing trend, though, is for heavier use of tablets. Tablets do not require such recrafting quite so much, with the salient exception that they encourage content consumption as well as mobile app access.

Will Video Content Industry Survive AI?

Virtually nobody in business ever wants to say that an industry or firm transition from an older business model to a newer model is doomed t...