Thursday, May 10, 2012

How Much Demand for Superfast Broadband?

BT's "Openreach" fiber to the home network now has reached about ten million premises across the United Kingdom, ahead of schedule. This is some months ahead of the original deadline for this figure that was the end of 2012. The FTTH network is expected to enable access speeds up to about 80 Mbps.

By some estimates, there have been 570,000 sales so far, both by BT and all wholesale partners, representing penetration of 5.8 percent. Of course, early in the deployment of any new fixed network, sales efforts necessarily are circumscribed as most of the work goes into physical construction.

To be sure, some will argue that BT and others have not moved fast enough. 


But making "superfast" broadband available is only part of the adoption story. There has to be demand, at prices consumers think are "fair," and that suppliers can afford to offer.


Only about 14 percent of respondents to a survey currently see a need for speeds of 50 Mbps or higher, about five percent of the total 3,000 customer sample, and would imply a total nine percent penetration of super-fast broadband when added to the four percent who already have speeds over 50 Mbps, the Marketing Directors says.

Among the 35 percent who want a higher broadband speed, there was only a modest willingness to pay more. Around 42 percent of those who want a faster speed would not be prepared to pay more for it. 


Another 25 percent would be prepared to pay up to €5 a month for their desired faster speed. About 15 percent would be prepared to pay over €15 a month for their desired faster speed. 

Only about 35 percent of broadband owners currently see a need for faster broadband speeds, and only 20 percent are prepared to pay more for it.  Of the 35 percent who do want faster speeds, about half would like to see their broadband speed double within two years.


Keep in mind "doubling" would generally be from about 7 Mbps, a typical capability for many customers. 


Only 15 percent of respondents said they were dissatisfied with their current broadband speed, as well. That doesn't mean expectations will not change in the future. Almost nothing is more certain than a gradual increase in bandwidth consumption over time. Perhaps it is certain that users will demand more access bandwidth over time, as well. 


The point is that the market now appears to be more of a supply push than an end user pull.

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