Apps or Mobile Web? It is Going to be a Toss Up

Today most mobile applications for smartphones are downloaded from “app stores.” According to ABI Research data, in 2009 consumers downloaded some 2.4 billion applications from such stores, and the download rate will accelerate over the next few years until in 2013 smartphone downloads are expected to peak at just below seven billion.

So you might be wondering whether this implies a decline of interest in mobile apps. Not really. What the forecast implies is that there will be other ways to get and use applications, namely using a mobile Web browser.

After 2013, smartphone download rates from app stores will start a slow decline, although total downloads from all sources will probably continue to grow, ABI Research believes.

ABI argues that more and more people will start visiting mobile websites authored using HTML5, which will mean applications can be run natively from inside Web pages where today external apps might be required.

Moreover, handset makers and service providers will pre-install apps on their products, such as social networking apps and some mobile office suites, removing the need for downloading those kinds of applications.

“App stores aren’t going away," says ABI Research Senior Analyst Mark Beccue."Following the 2013 peak in demand, the number of downloads in 2015 will have decreased only seven or eight percent."

But users will be able to gain the value of apps using their browsers.

Also, it is conceivable that mobile network operators will host their own app stores. Many observers think such efforts will enjoy only modest success, but there is one notable area where huge success could be possible.

If operators concentrate on providing downloadable apps to feature phones, that could be a big factor in newer and developing markets where smartphone penetration is lower.