European Mobile Broadband Penetration Growing: No Inflection Point, Yet

Mobile broadband penetration should reach 14 percent of the subscriber base in Western Europe, according to analysts at the Yankee Group.

So what should we expect for growth over the next decade? One might be tempted to extrapolate on a linear basis from where we are now. That is probably the one scenario that will not happen, as users change behavior and adopt both smart phones and use of mobile networks to support additional devices such as tablets.

Most technology and consumer electronics products actually are adopted in a non-linear fashion. There typically is a longish period of slow adoption, and then an inflection point where the rate of growth changes dramatically, and adoption is much faster.

Consider mobile phone adoption in the U.S. market. For a substantial period, including the years not shown on this CTIA chart, adoption was modest. But you clearly can see that the rate of adoption hit an inflection point around 1994, when the rate of adoption changed. 



That is likely to happen with mobile broadband as well. What we don't know is when the inflection point will arrive. But a good rule of thumb for most popular applications and devices is that change occurs more slowly at first, then more rapidly after the inflection point. So far, mobile broadband has not hit its inflection point.