How Well Will Industry Handle Huge Product Transitions?

Whatever else you might say about the global telecom business, there is no shortage of understanding that fundamental changes are happening and that huge challenges must be overcome.

Rapidly evolving mobile Web technologies have introduced a period of hyper-competition in the mobile sector, analysts at Deloitte say. As a result, new entrants are chipping away at incumbent advantages and profits.

The Deloitte study also suggests the mobile power structure is changing. According to 49 percent of our respondents (70 percent of which are from network carriers), Web companies, rather than network carriers or handset makers will dominate the mobile business in five years.

Moreover, 89 percent believe the role of carriers will be limited to providing access services. That is a major finding. No matter what executives might hope, nearly nine out of 10 respondents think "access," essentially "dumb pipe," will remain the role for ISPs.

The very-largest tier-one service providers arguably will have other options. But smaller firms might be entirely

Also, 87 percent believe that carriers must make the transition from the walled gardens of the past to new organizational models built around open development ecosystems to sustain competitiveness.

Some 31 percent of respondents employed by network carriers think changes in open access regulations will accelerate the commoditization of carriers and 90 percent of the same group believe the traditional carrier “closed garden” business model is quickly becoming a strategic relic.