U.S. Smartphone Market is a Bit Like Fashion

Smartphones and other mobile devices are a bit like fashion, introducing a great deal of volatility.

According to The Nielsen Company’s monthly surveys of U.S. mobile consumers from July 2010 to September 2010, consumers planning on getting a new smartphone had a very clear preference: A third (33 percent) wanted an Apple iPhone.

Slightly more than a quarter (26 percent) said they desired a device with the Google Android operating system. And 13 percent said they wanted a RIM Blackberry.

Those same surveys for January 2011 to March 2011 show significant changes. According to the latest figures, 31 percent of consumers who plan to get a new smartphone indicated Android was now their preferred OS. Apple’s iOS has slipped slightly in popularity to 30 percent and RIM Blackberry is down to 11 percent. Almost 20 percent of consumers are unsure of what to choose next.

U.S. Smartphone Market: Who’s the Most Wanted? | Nielsen Wire

Users Likely are Downloading More Mobile Apps Than They Think

Consumers often incorrectly estimate their habits and behaviors. Yankee Group researchers say consumers report downloading about two apps a month. But tracking software installed on a test group by Yankee Group researchers revealed that respondents actually downloaded an order of magnitude more applications for their smartphones than the consumers reported by recollection.

Android owners download an average of more than 20 apps per month, while BlackBerry owners download only two. That is a finding consistent with other surveys. This behavior may be explained by the variety of apps available, Yankee Group researchers say: Android app stores offer more than 130,000 apps, while RIM’s App World offers only 23,000.

Consumers remove an average of 11 apps each month. In fact, the tracking software shows consumers remove 73 percent of the apps they download.

Messaging Tops Smart Phone Usage

A recent three-week study of how 150 smart phone owners use their devices shows that the users spend an average of just over 94 minutes a day using their phones, and more than a third of that time, or as much as 28 minutes, is spent reading, writing and responding to email.

The aggregated time spent on all downloaded add-on apps, including Facebook, WordswithFriends and Pandora, is the second largest, totaling just under 11 minutes. Voice calls represent 13 minutes a day worth of usage.

Yankee Group Research Report

Smart Phone Users Consume 24 Mbytes a Day, 1/2 on Wi-Fi

A study of 150 smart phone users over a three-week period finds that panel members consume an average of 723 MBytes of data a month, an average of 24.1 MBytes of data a day. Of that, 21.5 MBytes is received, while only 2.6 MBytes is sent. Those figures include both wireless network and Wi-Fi consumption.

Looking only at data sent over cellular networks, the average data transfer is 12.1 MBytes a day, with Wi-Fi representing the remaining 12 MBytes of daily usage.

The data was gathered from Feb. 9, 2011 through March 2, 2011. Some 83 of the respondents use Android phones, 57 are iPhone users and 10 use RIM BlackBerry devices.

Yankee Group Research Report

What's the Form Factor for the Mobile Phone of the Future?

As much as the Apple iPhone has changed the expectations users have about what a mobile device should look like, and how the interface should work, there are no end of ideas about where device form factors and user experience are headed.

Where Touchscreen Mobile Users Visit

On a global basis, shopping and other services sites are the top destinations for users of touch screen smartphones and feature phones, according to Taptu.

Mobile Device Sales Surge 22% in First Quarter

The worldwide mobile phone market grew 21.7 percent in the first quarter of 2010, compared to contraction during the first quarter of 2009, when sales plunged 17 percent.

Stronger smartphone demand is part of the reason, says International Data Corporation. Vendors shipped 294.9 million units in the first quarter of 2010 compared to 242.4 million units in the first quarter of 2009.

Growing demand for smartphones also helped Research In Motion (RIM) move into the top-five vendor rankings for the first time. RIM, which replaced Motorola in the top five, tied Sony Ericsson for the number four position.

Annual sales are expected to up 11 percent, globally. The top-five suppliers include Nokia, Samsung, LG Electronics, Research In Motion and Sony Ericsson.

Smartphones for $65?

If smartphones represent the future for mobile phones, the cost of acquiring one will have to drop, and that appears to be precisely what HTC Corporation has in mind with its new HTC "Smart," a smartphone designed for use in all sorts of markets where cost might be an issue.

The HTC Smart will be available this spring across Europe and Asia, selling for a suggested retail price of Php 12,900 (Philippines pesos), or $65 in U.S. currency.

HTC Smart uses the HTC "Sense" user interface, allowing personal customization of each person’s own phone experience.  It also provides a quick and easy way to see what friends are up to via various social networks as well as quickly communicating over the phone, through text messaging or email.

HTC Smart uses Qualcomm’s "Brew Mobile Platform,"  a popular mobile operating system that enables smartphone devices to be offered at more aggressive price points.

Such developments are important because they make smartphone features available to users beyond the advanced regions of the world.


Is it possible that simple tools, such as low-cost mobile phones, can have more positive economic and social impact than our typical large-scale government-to-government and typical development aid efforts? The aid establishment might not like the question, or the answers, but MIT NextLab project staff seem to believe the answer is "yes."

“Traditional aid does little for the very poor,” says Jhonatan Rotberg, founder and director of the NextLab program. “Only a fraction of the donated money trickles down to those who need it most."

"But with a mobile phone, poor people can get ahead," he says.

By any measure, recent progress, especially over the past few years, has been quite dramatic: mobile cellular penetration in developing countries has more than doubled since 2005, when it stood at only 23 per cent.

Last year, mobile cellular penetration in developing countries passed the 50 per cent mark, reaching an estimated 57 per 100 inhabitants at the end of 2009. Even though this remains well below the average in developed countries, where penetration exceeds 100 per cent, the rate of progress is remarkable.

Android might be the next big evolution, not that voice and text messaging are propagating. Using Android, devices could be customized for any number of applications that might otherwise be run on a PC, an important development in markets where device cost and access to electricity are issues.

Already, over four billion mobile phones are in use in the world today. The next billion new users, Rotberg says, will be spread out in the developing countries, mainly in Africa and Asia. Android could be important in that regard.

Not since abour 2006 have there been more fixed broadband lines in service in the most-developed broadband markets than emerging countries, and by 2009 a group of about 15 nations, including the BRICs, as well as countries in Southeast Asia, South American and Eastern Europe had surpassed the developed countries in total subscribers.

These days, the 15 emerging countries have the biggest share of broadband lines and the fastest growth rates as well, says Point Topic.

It's worth pondering that for just a moment. In 2000 there were 738 million global mobile subscribers. In 2010, there are 4.3 billion mobile subscribers, and most of those subscribers live in the developing world, according to the International Telecommunications Union.

It took just four years to double the number of global mobility users, from 2000 to 2004, and just another four years to double yet again, from 2004 to 2008. That sort of growth does not happen much in the telecom business, and has not happened before in the developed world.

Broadband growth is likely to assume something of the same pattern, but likely will be driven by mobile, not fixed access. Mobility has proven to be a raging, unexpected success story for people in developed regions. Broadband is about to repeat that feat.

Quietly, without much fanfare, communications really has become a capability available to all the world's people, after many decades of attempts by policymakers and providers to figure out how to do that. In the end, better technology has made all the difference. We don't use wires, we use airwaves. We don't use analog, we use digital. We don't use physical goods; we use electronic goods.

By 2014 just 15 developing nations will account for over 320 million broadband lines, 43 percent of the world total of 740 million broadband lines, by that time.

The fastest-growing group of 15 countries will have broadband growth rates of 14.2 percent annually. Another group of 12 countries, including the United States, Japan, Greece and Taiwan, will see annual growth of about 5.5 percent each year through 2014. Some 13 countries, including Western European nations, Canada, South Korea and Hong Kong, will see 4.6 percent annual growth rates.

All of those statistics are important for one compelling reason. Global subscriber and revenue growth for voice services, mobile services and broadband now has shifted to developing regions of the world.

Mobile Advertising, Commerce to Explode with Strong Smartphone Growth

Research and Markets forecasts that U.S. mobile Internet users will rise to 158 million in 2015, while smartphone owners will rise to 194 million in the same year. That is fairly significant growth, given the current estimate of about 46 million U.S. smartphones in use, suggesting more than a tripling and nearly a quadrupling of the user base in the next five years.

As a result, the firm believes revenues from mobile advertising will grow about 37 percent at a compound annual growth rate, while mobile commerce grows at 65 percent compound rate between now and 2015.

Top Five Hot Topics at Mobile World Congress 2010

The Top-Five hot topics at the Mobile World Congress this year, according to analysts at Juniper Research, are:

1. Flurry of launches to increase competition in the smartphone space
2. Operators announce Apps Community
3. GSMA embarks on LTE interconnection standards
4. NFC payment trial at Mobile World Congress to presage widespread NFC adoption?
5. Android platform gains critical mass- the rise of the open source OS

Smartphone launches from Samsung, Sony Ericsson, ZTE, Motorola Acer and several others will dramatically increase competition in the smartphone space, says John Levett, Juniper Research analyst.

In the apps market, the launch by 24 mobile operators of a "Wholesale Applications Community" should allow for mobile internet and applications to be downloaded without the potential headache of conflicting technologies, he says.

With LTE now boasting several live roll-outs and as many as 75 build-out commitments, some 40 mobile industry organizations have now backed industry association GSMA’s initiative to standardise the delivery of voice and messaging services for LTE.

A SIM-based mobile payments trial by the GSMA, Samsung, Telefonica, and several partners could herald a new era in the development of mobile payments using near field communications technology.

MWC 2010 also has seen a proliferation of mobile handsets using Google’s Android platform with announcements from Alcatel, Dell, HTC, LG, Motorola, Samsung, Sony Ericsson and ZTE. that means a higher-profile for open source operating systems overall.

http://www.juniperresearch.com/analyst-xpress-blog/2010/02/17/top-five-hot-topics-at-mobile-world-congress-2010/

Wi-Fi Now Crucial for Mobile Networks

A new study by Coda Research Consultancy predicts that Wi-Fi enabled mobile handset penetration in the United States will grow at 25 percent compound average growth rates between 2009 and 2015.

Most of that growth will come as smartphone sales pick up, and the Wi-Fi capability will be crucial for mobile service providers attempting to maintain high quality service. Since much data demand is created by smartphone users, networks can offload quite a lot of traffic to Wi-Fi-connected fixed networks using the Wi-Fi capability.



It's a "win-win" situation. Users often will discover their devices perform faster on Wi-Fi, while mobile service providers can conserve capital investment. Some users will find Wi-Fi helps them manage their bandwidth caps. Also, Wi-Fi-equiped smartphones will make fixed connections at home more valuable as well.

User Behavior Changes Mobile Device Design Priorities

Smartphones get used for work purposes, to be sure, but what really seems to make mobile Web and Internet access behavior different from PC behavior are the things people do on their mobiles. And the Apple iPhone, as much as anything else, points to where we are going.

It isn't so much that users increasingly listen to music, play games, use social networking sites and send instant messages on their mobiles. Users can do those things on their PCs as well.

They use the Web, catch up on news or watch videos on both mobile and fixed PC platforms. But there seems little doubt that, for most people, it is personal and entertainment apps that increasingly are important, not keeping up with work activities.

We used to describe this behavior as requiring smartphones that balance work and personal life. These days, the emphasis for device design seems deliberately skewed to personal usage modes. That isn't to discount continuing use of smartphones for work purposes. But it is to note that device design has moved well beyond "productivity."

In fact, design priorities seem almost to have flipped. Where it once was important to handle email and calendar well, it now seems important to handle Web, music and navigation applications well, while also supporting email and calendar functions.

AT&T Seen Keeping iPhone Exclusivity Until 2012

AT&T will likely keep its exclusive hold on the iPhone for the next 12-18 months, rather than ending its exclusivity in mid-2010, says Jonathan Chaplin of Credit Suisse.""

"We believe there is a 75 percent probability that AT&T keeps exclusivity in 2010," says Chaplin.
"We conclude that there is only a 50 percent probability" that AT&T loses its exclusivity agreement at the end of 2010.

Chaplin also believes AT&T can afford to compensate Apple at a rate high enough that Apple could reasonably conclude it has essentially nothing to gain by allowing Verizon or other carriers to sell the iPhone.

http://gigaom.com/2010/02/04/att-seen-keeping-the-iphone-through-2011-analyst/

Permanent Changes in Consumer Behavior and Mobility Business?

The economic crisis "permanently" changed how consumers, enterprises and network builders approach everything, says Christopher Collins, Yankee Group analyst. The changes might not be helpful to communications service providers, if consumers do as they have told Yankee Group they will.

About 66 percent of consumers claim they will spend less in 2010 than in 2009, while 25 percent expect to cancel or spend less for core connectivity services.

About 20 percent of business executives also said they had undertaken “severe reductions” in their technology investments.

But one has to be especially careful at times of transition, which by definition lead to changes of sentiment and behavior. And sentiment seems to be improving.

But some of Yankee Group's 2010 predictions are grounded in a continuation of underlying trends.

The number of mobile-only households in the United States doubled in 2009, to 30 percent of homes, says Collins.

And cord-cutting is rapidly expanding to mobile broadband at a rate faster than anticipated, he notes. In fact, Collins estimates that 33 percent of U.K. homes will be "mobile only" for their broadband connections by Deember 2010. That could happen elsewhere, he suggests.

Prepaid payment plans, lower prices and higher speeds might encourage mobile broadband substitution, he says. "These factors will combine to make mobile broadband a more realistic alternative to land-line broadband for the most price-conscious and quality-insensitive consumers," he says.

Another trend just might have the effect of slowing smartphone adoption, though. Yankee believes mobile service providers cannot afford the increased customer acquisition costs subsidized phones represent.

But should that happen, and users start to pay the full costs of their devices, upgrades will slow and churn will lessen. To forestall the slowing of smartphone uptake, which is key to increasing data revenues, service providers could resort to payment plans for phone purchases.

Also, the Yankee Group believes the netbook will face disappointing sales in 2010, something of a reversal of 2009 trends. NPD DisplaySearch reports that year over year netbook sales grew by almost 270 percent through the second quarter of 2009.

Collins notes that netbook return rates are high, running 30 percent. Collins suggests that is a result of user unhappiness with performance, form factor or other issues. The other issue is that prices of notebooks have dropped. The Yankee Group assumes notebooks will take on similar netbook form factors but with more utility than netbooks offer.

Consumers also drive more than 50 percent of enterprise smartphone purchases, Yankee Group predicts. The largest beneficiary of this trend will be Apple, as the iPhone continues to cross over into the business world. The biggest loser will be Microsoft, as Windows Mobile loses mindshare among both business decision-makers and employees.

Analysts also believe the Chrome OS also will start to power a new class of devices and that cloud computing will drive demand for new enterprise management tools.

Huawei will continue to nab LTE deals from Ericsson, Alcatel-Lucent and Nokia Siemens Networks on their home turf, and Yankee Group predicts that Huawei will expand on its success by winning a major LTE deal in North America in 2010.

Telcos also will start to leverage reliability concerns about cloud computing to win business. As owners of network assets, they can provide enterprises with secure VPN links between private and public cloud environments, plus sophisticated management portals to monitor service performance, Yankee Group believes.

That’s why telcos including BT, Deutsche Telekom, NTT, Orange Business Services and SingTel are leading candidates to become trusted cloud intermediaries.

The coming year also will raise awareness that innovation increasingly requires partnerships, as venture capital investment in hardware and networking start-ups is declining. Venture capital funding for networking and equipment start-ups has declined every year since 2000, according to the National Venture Capital Association (NVCA).

In 2000, the venture capital community invested $11.2 billion in networking and equipment sector companies, but in the first three quarters of 2009, that sector saw just $545 million in investment. If they are to remain competitive, suppliers  must revitalize internal research and development.

In 2010, infrastructure sharing (of both active and passive network assets) will become the de facto business model for efficient telcos in both developed and emerging markets. This is not just a matter of economics; regulators are also forcing the practice. And it’s a critical shift for telcos: Competitive differentiation will focus on services, not network reach. Europe is currently a center of activity, but it’s a global trend (e.g., we see this in India, where regulators are eager to improve the economics of connecting rural areas).

Trailblazers in 2009 included Vodafone and Telefónica, which agreed to share network sites in the U.K., Spain, Germany and Ireland, with more countries under discussion for 2010. Meanwhile, Orange and T-Mobile U.K. agreed to merge in 2010 without changing T-Mobile’s existing 3G network-sharing deal with 3 or Orange’s deal with 3 to provide 2G coverage services.

If telcos don’t embrace infrastructure sharing on their own, regulators may force their hand. The European Parliament (EP) recently approved reforms aimed at helping all telecom operators in the EU 27 share incumbents’ access networks on equal terms. If incumbents fail to comply, regulators can force the functional separation of network operations from service divisions (as the EP did in the U.K., and now plans to do in Italy and Poland). Such approaches are in play across the world: New Zealand with Chorus and Singapore with Nucleus Connect are notable examples; Australia is likely to be next.

Also, U.S. network neutrality rules will have a domino effect worldwide. As a result, service providers everywhere will be forced to become more transparent, both in terms of their internal traffic management practices and the ultimate effects those practices have on end-users.

U.S. Mobile Handset Sales to Double in 2010?

Although 2009 was not the best year for mobile device sales most places in the world, the United States was a rather salient exception. But 2010 will be an even-better year for U.S. mobile device sales, says TNS. In fact, moble phone sales could double in 2010.

About 53 percent of American respondents and 55 percent of Canadian respondents say they plan to buy a mobile phone in the next six months, up from just 24 percent of U.S. respondents a year ago and 19 percent of Canadian respondents.

Touchscreen phones are set to be the big winners, with 29 percent of U.S. consumers and 28 percent of Canadian respondents saying they will buy one as their next phone.

Mobiles with Qwerty keyboards are also rising in popularity, with 23 percent of U.S. respondents indicating they will buy such a device, and 19 percent of  Canadians.

But there are some issues.  TNS’ research shows that consumers find it hard to distinguish one device from another. Also, 27 percent of Amercian consumers and 29 percent of Canadians consumers say "ease of use" problems as preventing them from using some of the new mobile services offered.

Another mobile device that stands to do well in 2010 is the netbook. About 19 percent of American consumers say they are likely to buy one in the next six months, compared to 19 percent for larger notebooks and only five percent for desktop PC’s.

In Canada, about 20 percent of consumers say they are likely to buy a netbook, 22 percent a notebook and five percent a desktop machine.

TNS studied 24,000 consumers in 35 markets to develop its findings.

What Users Do on the Mobile Web

About 29 percent of mobile phone users logged on to the mobile Web at least once per month in 2009, up from 22 percent in 2008, say researchers at Marketer.

So what do those people use the mobile Web? About 19 percent search for local products and services. About 16 percent say they get information about movies and entertainment.

About 13 percent get information about restaurants and bars. Some 11 percent search fro products or services outside the immediate local area.

About four percent made a purchase of a physical items that had to be shipped, while three percent used a mobile coupon.

According to BIA/Kelsey and ConStat, many of those qualify as “heavy” users—those who go online via mobile more than 10 times each week. BIA/Kelsey and ConStat say heavy mobile Internet users represent about 21 percent of the total U.S. mobile population in October 2009, up from less than 15 percent a year earlier. And the overall average number of monthly mobile Web sessions has doubled in that time period.

Heavy users of text messaging and mobile e-mail have also increased over the past year. Nearly one half of mobile users text more than 10 times weekly, while 20 percent send and receive more than 10 mobile emails each week.

Non-local product searches seem not be as prevalent as local searches, which about 20 percent of users report they did in the last month.

Basically, consumers have doubled their use of the mobile platform for non-voice communications,” says Rick Ducey, BIA/Kelsey chief strategy officer.

Apple And Android Dominate U.S. Smartphone Web Traffic

It is starting to look like just two smartphone platforms "matter" where it comes to use of the mobile Web: the Apple iPhone and the Android devices, a new analysis by AdMob suggests.

AdMob’s October, 2009 measurements show that the iPhone/iPod Touch and Android phones account for 75 percent of mobile Web traffic in the United States.

Apple devices continue to dominate, with 55 percent share, but Android users in October represented 20 percent of all activity, up from 17 percent in September, 2009.

The iPhone and iPod Touch grew their share from 48 percent to 55 percent share over the same period.

The Blackberry ’s mobile Web traffic share went down from 14 percent to 12 percent, and Palm’s webOS shrank from 10 percent to five percent.

On a global basis, the iPhone operating system now accounts for 50 percent of all mobile traffic, up from 43 percent the month before.

Android has an 11 percent global share, which makes it third globally after Nokia/Symbian’s 25 percent share.

Since Verizon launched the Droid about two weeks ago, Droids now make up 24 percent of all Android mobile Web traffic. The HTC Dream, which is the oldest Android device on the market, is the only Android device with more share, at 36 percent of Android traffic. Give it a few more weeks. The Droid is shaping up to be the most-popular Android device so far.

The data suggests that the BlackBerry, though a worthy enterprise device, continues to lag as a smartphone choice for users whose key applications lean to the Web.

Surprising Smartphone Statistics?

I don't know about you, but I found this bit of data on smartphone use surprising.  According to Nielsen, when looking at smartphone use with a baseline of 100, smartphone users  disproportionately tend to be 18 to 34 years old. 


One wonders what happened to the BlackBerry users between the ages of 35 and 54, whom one might think are over-represented among the ranks of smartphone users. 


Granted, this is an index with 100 as baseline, so it is more an example of "over-indexing" among some segments, but the findings still surprised me.


That was especially surprising given the over-indexing of smartphone used at least in part for business purposes. 


While smartphone usage is shifting from purely business use to both personal and business use, owners are still more than two times as likely to own a smartphone for business usage only.  


The study also suggests smartphone owners continue to be predominantly male, are 65 percent more likely than the average mobile subscriber to be between the ages of 25 and 34, and nearly two times as likely to make more than $100,000 a year.

Smartphone Niches Emerging

Data from ChangeWave about smartphone preferences might suggest both the existence of clear smartphone segments as well as an evolution of those segments.

By definition, all smartphones handle voice and text. Beyond that, there seem to be distinct user niches.

One might characterize the Palm user as someone whose unique application is the "organizer."

One might characterize the BlackBerry user as oriented to email, and the iPhone owner as oriented to Web-delivered applications.

Looked at this way, the Changewave data might suggest that the value proposition for the email-focused remains steady, but that the value of "organizer" functions is receding, while mobile Web is growing. We also have seen the introduction recently of devices organized around social networking and navigation, so the number of smartphone niches addressed by particular devices seems to be growing.

The Palm Pre and Motorola Cliq are among new devices pitched at the social networking niche. Garmin's nuvifone is perhaps the best example of a navigation-focused smartphone. So the obvious big question is how the growing raft of Android-based smartphones will contribute to the proliferation of devices with a lead application mode.

How demand for the Droid will shape up is hard to say at the moment. Some fragmentary data suggests that Droid users access the Web even more than iPhone users do. But its turn-by-turn navigation features might also emerge as a key drawing point.

BlackBerry and iPhone Users are Different, Just Not Wildly So

BlackBerry users are different from iPhone users, a new study by Retrevo Gadgetology suggests. Some of the differences are amusing, perhaps intentionally so, as the questions asked of younger BlackBerry and iPhone users included some that observers might find frivolous, or intended to evoke humorous responses.

Apple iPhone say they find cool gadgets, “most attractive,” about a person, in fact, three times more than they find a college degree attractive.

BlackBerry owners think a college degree is more attractive than the mobile device they use.

About 34 percent of iPhone owners and 29 percent of BlackBerry owners think old gadgets on a potential partner are a turn off. Some 33 percent of iPhone owners say they have broken up with someone  using text messaging, compared to 22 percent of BlackBerry users.

A quarter of iPhone users say they have broken off a relationship because their partner spent too much time on their mobile, compared to 17 percent of BlackBerry users.

The Retrevo Gadgetology report surveyed 445 iPhone and BlackBerry owners distributed across gender, age, income and location in the United States.