Friday, October 14, 2011

Is Voice Value in Bearer Traffic or Signaling?

Where is voice value?
In the absence of some significant amount of innovation in voice services, it might be easy to predict that the revenue contribution from voice, both fixed and mobile, will slowly decline.

That's easy enough for those with no operating responsibilities to say. But there is one major caveat.

Typical estimates of voice revenue contribution, not to mention the strategic value of voice, tend to focus on "bearer traffic" revenues, not the contribution of signaling. 


And one can make an argument that if the voice revenue contribution trend does change, it will be because of innovations in signaling, not bearer traffic, that will drive it.

Why M2M is Important for Service Providers - Carrier Evolution

The "Internet of things" has gotten attention recently for several reasons. One reason is that analysts, academics and journalists, not to mention mobile service provider executives, need something new to talk about. Another reason is that machines and sensors represent the clearest way for mobile revenue and services to grow. Most people who want a mobile device now have one.


To be sure, mobile broadband for smart phones and tablets will be an important source of revenue growth for some time. Beyond that, to keep the business growing, service providers must tap a whole new class of services and devices other than "phones" or other devices people use. That means sensors, security cameras and other telemetry devices. And that's why you now hear so much about M2M or the "Internet of things."

Startup Lets You Save and Share Parts of Web Pages - Technology Review

Plenty of simple things are still surprisingly hard to do online. Take saving a piece of a Web page. That specific task is trickier than it sounds. A startup called Clipboard is building a simple solution using some rather sophisticated Web technologies. http://vimeo.com/27539178


Clipboard allows users to select and store pieces of Web pages in a cloud-based account. Users can comment on items, tag them, and search them. The site allows people to keep clippings private, share them with specific people, or offer them to the public. The new site has been in stealth mode until today, but it's now opening up for a private beta test (readers of Technology Review are invited to participate and can sign up here).

Ironic Reversal in Video, Voice Markets

J.D. Power's annual customer satisfaction survey of video service providers might be interpreted in an ironic way. The survey could suggest that telco and satellite video customers are more happy than cable TV subscribers.

On the other hand, it might be argued that cable customers buying voice services are happier than telco voice customers.

J.D. Power satisfaction study

United States Leads LTE Market

4G Adoption Forecast
Critics often chide the United States for "lagging" in some measure of communications adoption. At various times in the past, that criticism has extended to use of mobile phones, text messaging, residential broadband and advanced mobile applications.

But U.S. consumers have shown an ability to adopt such innovations in relatively short order once the value was perceived. Nobody argues anymore that U.S. consumers somehow lag in use of any of those services.

More recently, the U.S. market has emerged as the leader in mobile applications, smart phone development and now will take leadership in 4G networks as well.

Verizon, MetroPCS, and AT&T will account for the majority of 4G Long Term Evolution connections globally by year-end 2011. Pyramid Research expects that U.S. mobile service providers, with seven million LTE connections, will account for 47 percent of the world’s LTE subscriptions.

Pyramid expects 71 percent of 5.4 million global LTE handset sales will come from the United States in the near term. Separately, Informa Telecoms & Media projects something on the order of 600 million 4G subscriptions in service by about 2016.

The strong demand for mobile broadband in the U.S. market also will allow operators to quickly recoup spending on capital investments. Verizon and NTT Docomo, both the largest operators in their respective countries, each launched LTE in December 2010.

Google Getting into the Cloud Music Business?

After introducing a cloud music service with arguably-limited capabilities, Google is in negotiations with the major record labels to expand that service and also open an MP3 store that would compete with Apple and Amazon.


The new service would most likely be connected to Google’s existing cloud service, "Music Beta," which lets people back up their songs on remote servers and stream them to mobile phones and other devices.

Steve Wozniak Is “A Little Afraid” About The Future Of Apple

Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak says he is “a little afraid about the future of Apple” even though “it could go positive.” Some of his concerns are based on Apple’s iPhone 4S product demo. Watch the video.


If you believe Steve Jobs really was a highly-unusual CEO, with a very-unusual way of approaching product development, that is a rational concern. 

He says the company talked about its dual-core processor, but “Steve doesn’t want us to think about dual-core processors, all we need to know is how do we get our answer, how do we connect to the internet… Human things, not technical things.” 


He also says he doesn’t want Apple to go the way Sony went in its products. Steve Wozniak Is “A Little Afraid” About The Future Of Apple 

Should You Be on Tumblr?

From Irene Albright’s to-die-for “closet”Tumblr is a nice platform for blogging. It might not work in every business vertical, though. 


Partly, that's a matter of format, and partly a matter of audience. The Tumblr audience tends to be younger, so short, highly visual blog posts tend to do much better than text-intensive posts. That might not work for some B2B applications where text is more important.

That's another issue. If the subject matter a business blog deals with is not highly visual, Tumblr might not be the optimal choice.


The quick setup and simplicity of Tumblr make it a good choice for those who want to get a blog up and running right now, who can integrate lots of visual elements and where content is visually oriented and light on text as a way of communicating.

The fashion industry was one of the first to embrace Tumblr from a business perspective. See pret-a-portel.

Brands like Oscar De La Renta and Ann Taylor capitalized on the visual nature of Tumblr by publishing photos of the latest fashions, insider pictures and quick bits from the fashion world. Should You Be on Tumblr?

Social Media Revenue $29 Billion in 2015


Worldwide social media revenue is on track to reach $10.3 billion in 2011, a 41.4 percent increase from 2010 revenue of $7.3 billion, says Gartner. Global social media revenue is forecast to reach $14.9 billion in 2012 and $29.1 billion in 2015.



Advertising revenue is, and will remain, the largest contributor to overall social media revenue. Social media advertising revenue is forecast to total $5.5 billion in 2011, and grow to $8.2 billion in 2012. Advertising revenue includes display advertising and digital video commercials on any device including PCs, mobile and media tablets.
            
Social gaming sales will reach $3.2 billion in 2011, growing to $4.5 billion in 2012.

Social media subscriptions will conribute a modest $236 million in 2011 and total $313 million in 2012. Social media revenue

Google Mobile Ad Revenue $2.5 Billion Run Rate

Mobile advertising forecast
Google says its mobile revenue stream has grown 2.5 times in the last 12 months to a run rate of over $2.5 billion. Google mobile revenue at $2.5 billion Mobile revenue, primarily generated by advertising, could represent seven percent of Google's total revenue of $35.7 billion.

Keep in mind that worldwide mobile advertising revenue was forecast to reach only $3.3 billion in 2011,  according to Gartner. Google's run-rate forecast was built using past-year data, and in all likelihood will exceed that level in 2012, it is safe to predict. 


Worldwide revenue will reach $20.6 billion by 2015, according to Gartner. Search and maps will generate the highest revenue, while video and audio ads will see the fastest growth through 2015. http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1726614

"Enterprise" Mobility a Reflection of Consumer Behavior

IDC Smart Phone, Tablet Forecast
As has been the case for the last several years, there was a reported "lack of enthusiasm" at the CTIA Enterprise and Applications show.

That meeting has been struggling, some might say, to find a clear mission and role, and some might say it still has not found that role.

Among the reasons, one might say, is that mobile computing and applications are not driven by enterprise users and concerns, but by consumer applications and desires, in the same way that most enterprise innovation now is driven.


Enterprise technology managers controlled the pace and adoption of technology for decades but starting with the launch of the iPhone in 2007, non-technology executives and employees have been demanding the right to use the devices they find so palatable in their regular lives for work purposes. As a result, “enterprise mobile technology” is kind of a misnomer; the dollars, talent, and hype in mobile are going toward companies that are building things for consumers.

IPhone 4S Sales May Reach 4 Million First Weekend

Steve Jobs
Apple could sell as many as four million units of its new iPhone 4S the first weekend it is available. Available Oct. 14, 2011 in the United States, Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Japan and the United Kingdom, sales are expected to beat the 1.7 million iPhone 4 units sold on that device's first weekend.

Some observers think sales will be boosted by consumer interest in the last device of the Steve Jobs era at Apple.

“It’s going to easily outpace any previous launch,” said Charlie Wolf, an analyst at Needham & Co. iPhone 4S Sales May Reach 4 Million

Thursday, October 13, 2011

Rampant Multitasking, Nielsen Finds


what are smartphone and tablet owners doing while watching TV? Checking email, says Nielsen. Email was the top activity for both men and women during television programming and commercial breaks, in a recent study. In addition, women reported engaging in social networking more than men, while men checked sports scores more often.
q2_2011-simultaneous-usage-cm11-3943

1.9 Net New Customers for Clearwire in 3Q

Clearwire Corporation pre-announced third quarter 2011 revenue of approximately $332 million are expected for the third quarter 2011, representing an increase of approximately 126 percent year over year.

Net wholesale subscriber additions are expected to total a record 1.9 million for third quarter 2011, representing approximately 29 percent sequential growth of wholesale subscribers. Third quarter 2011 ending subscribers are expected to be approximately 9.5 million.

All of that could change in the future, though, as Sprint has indicated it will no longer sell Clearwire-capable devices after the end of 2012.

Sprint Focusing M2M Development on Four Verticals

Sprint is broadening its machine-to machine (M2M) development initiatives to focus on four primary areas: connected transportation; connected meters, sensors and alarms; connected machines, screens and things; and connected personal devices.



Sprint has defined several sub-segments within each of the four M2M growth segments:
Connected Transportation – Fleet / Telematics / Inter-Vehicle Communication (IVC) / IVC Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEMS); Usage-Based Insurance (UBI) / Pay As You Drive (PAYD); and Public Safety / Emergency.
Connected Meters, Sensors and Alarms – Utility / Smart Grid; Water / Oil / Gas; Security and Surveillance; and Automation and Control.
Connected Machines, Screens and Things – Automated Teller Machine (ATM) / Point of Sale (POS) / Access / Vending; Digital Signage and Kiosk; Asset Tracking; and Embedded Routers and Modems.
Connected Personal Devices – Personal Gaming and Tracking; Personal Health Management; and Copiers / Printers / Scanners.


Has AI Use Reached an Inflection Point, or Not?

As always, we might well disagree about the latest statistics on AI usage. The proportion of U.S. employees who report using artificial inte...