Monday, January 17, 2011

How PayPal Quickly Gets into Mobile Payments in a Big Way

With a $10 billion market cap, Discover Financial Services is ridiculously undervalued, says consultant Philip J. Philliou. "$10 billion is barely fair value for the card portfolio and yet, it is the network that makes DFS most attractive," says Philliou. "My wildcard bet is that PayPal acquires DFS."

In the scenario, PayPal rebrands everything Discover and uses the Discover Network to penetrate the $6 trillion in store spend opportunity in the United States.

Data Centers are the New Wrinkle for Capacity Firms


Executive Interview: Bill Barney, CEO, Pacnet from ptctv on Vimeo.
Pacnet CEO Bill Barney talks about what's going on in the capacity business, especially changes wrought by video, hosted apps and cloud computing.

The Six Big Global Service Provider Challenges


Executive Interview: Scott Puopolo, Vice President, Global Service Provider Practice, IBSG, Cisco from ptctv on Vimeo.

HTC EVO 4G $99 on Amazon

The HTC EVO 4G, which sells for $199.99 from Sprint, is now available for a bargain $99.99 when purchased through Amazon.com, with a service plan. It is available in both black and white color schemes.

Apple iPhone 5 Will Be "Completely Redesigned"

The Apple iPhone 5 will be a completely redesigned handset, says Engadget. That's just the sort of thing that can refresh the whole installed base of devices. Possibly due as early as the summer of 2011, the looming prospect of a completely-redesigned iPhone is likely to start causing users to wait on buying an iPhone 4.

That might be of special concern for Verizon Wireless, which just began selling the iPhone 4.

Amazon Will Control Android App Store Pricing

Amazon.com's new Android App Store is interesting for a couple of reasons. It would be a new and potentially influential independent app store, with huge brand name recognition.

Amazon at least potentially could play a role in curating mobile applications in way slightly different from what Apple has been doing at its own app store. Apple approves all apps. Amazon will do so as well, but says it will retain the right to determine the selling price for a paid app. That is consistent with Amazon's policies for other key products, such as Kindle e-books.

But that policy would be different from the model prevailing at most other app stores, especially the Android and iPhone stores.

It's hard to know in advance what impact such policies might have, but Amazon is an experienced retailer intent on applying sales knowledge to mobile apps as well. There is bound to be some friction, with some developers, over the control of retail pricing. On the other hand, Amazon and Apple have found good success with other products able to establish a consumer expectation of prici

Whether that can be done with applications of many types remains to be seen, but Amazon's approach will be instructive.

Mobile Allows Marketing to Shoppers at Every Touchpoint

While in-store digital technologies and media will play a significant role, mobile is the linchpin for next-generation shopper marketing, eMarketer argues.

Location-based check-ins and in-store mobile are starting to become significant for both retailers and brand marketers. And in the post-shop phase brands and retailers should find creative ways to encourage shoppers to share their stories on social media.

iPhone Owners Use QR Codes More than Android Owners

Apple iPhone owners used quick response codes three times more often than owners of Android devices by nearly three to one, according to a recent analysis by JumpScan, a QR service provider.

The trend is based on a recent sampling of 5,000 scans from mobile devices. Blackberry came in a distant third, generating approximately three percent of the overall scans.

“One of the reasons,” speculates JumpScan co-founder Mike McKearin, “could be that iPhone users had a significant jump start on mobile web, apps and emerging technologies. “We anticipate this gap closing as Android users quickly adapt to QR usage on the mobile web.

Apple Can Handle Ops Without Jobs; Innovation is the Issue

There is bound to be some market reaction from the news that Steve Jobs, Apple CEO, is taking medical leave. But the issues have more to do with vision, and the ability to create brand new markets, than actual operations at Apple. Apple's team seems well able to execute on its vision.

In the third quarter of 2010 Apple had four-percent unit share of smartphone sales, 22 percent sales value share and 50 percent of profit share. In part, that is because it has honed its manufacturing processes, some would say.

Few CEOs have created markets the way Jobs has. And that's the danger the financial markets will be trying to assess, not Apple's operations.

HTC Tops Other Android Handset Suppliers for Upgrades to Latest Version

HTC seems to be the most-prolific handset manufacturer in terms of introducing Android operating system upgrades, according to a study conducted by Computerworld. HTC upgraded 50 percent of its Android phones to to Froyo, the latest Android version, within 2010. Its average upgrade time is 56 days.

Motorola comes in second for number of upgrades, with 15.4 percent of its Android phones having tasted Froyo before the end of 2010. While that number sounds low, especially compared to HTC, note that Motorola had four handsets that weren't released until November 2010, which means those devices had far less time on the market before the year's end.

Apple CEO Steve Jobs Goes on Medical Leave

Steve Jobs, Apple CEO is taking medical leave at Apple. Jobs says he will continue as CEO and be involved in major strategic decisions for the company, as apparently he has in the passt.

Tim Cook will be responsible for all of Apple’s day to day operations during the absence, as happened also when Jobs took his last leave.

At few companies is the potential departure of a CEO as crucial as at Apple, but it probably is worth noting that Apple has, in the past, continued to introduce major products of high market impact even when Jobs was not physically as present.

The iPad, another apparent breakthrough product, was launched after Jobs had a liver transplant.

Sunday, January 16, 2011

Mobile Works Better than Online Advertising, Study Finds

InsightExpress, a digital marketing research firm, found mobile campaign norms were 4.5 to 5 times higher than online norms against measures of unaided awareness, aided awareness, ad awareness, message association, brand favorability and purchase intent.

A comparison of three different mobile media types (Mobile Internet, SMS and Mobile video) revealed that mobile Internet is the current powerhouse. Mobile Internet campaigns resulted in increases of nine percentage points for unaided awareness, nine percentage points for aided awareness and 24 percentage points for ad awareness. SMS is also effective at increasing upper level purchase funnel metrics such as awareness measures. SMS campaigns generated increases of 5 percentage points for unaided awareness, 10 percentage points for aided awareness and 18 percentage points for ad awareness.

Mobile video is still emerging, but shows campaign impact on par with SMS across most key brand metrics. This channel drove especially strong results against brand favorability. With an increase of 13 percentage points, compared to 12 percentage points for Mobile Internet and 7 percentage points for SMS, mobile video is demonstrating promise as a way to move the important brand favorability measure.

Comparing mobile norms to online norms, mobile consumer packaged goods purchase intent effect is three times higher than online CPG purchase intent. Mobile entertainment purchase intent effect is four times higher than online entertainment intent.

Mobile travel purchase Intent effect is five times higher than online travel purchase intent, while mobile technology purchase intent effect is seven times higher than online technology purchase intent.

Mobile automotive purchase intent effect is four times higher than online.

read more here

Small Business Marketing Looks to Rise in 2011

Small business owners plan to spend on marketing their business in 2011, according to a new survey by Manta, the world's largest online community for promoting and connecting small business.

Some 77 percent of small business owners surveyed by Manta plan to spend in 2011 even though 85 percent reported across-the-board cuts in 2010. Some 47 percent have prioritized marketing and sales as their top spend, with 24 percent noting business development as top priority and 23 percent opting for marketing and advertising.

Another 23 percent of the respondents said they couldn't prioritize expenditures for 2011, given the current state of their business.

U.S. Hispanics are Avid Mobile Users

U.S. Hispanics are avid mobile phone users, according to Scarborough Research, which finds that the percentage of Hispanic adults who use a cellular phone grew 26 percent since 2005, versus 18 percent for all adults. Currently, mobile usage among Hispanics is on par with that of the general population as 82 percent of Hispanic adults use a cellular phone, compared to 84 percent of total adults.

But Hispanics are heavier users. Hispanics are more likely than other cellular users to text message. Sixty‐four percent of Hispanics who use a wireless phone text message, versus 56 percent of all cellular users.

Also, 22 percent of Hispanic cellular users download or listen to music using their wireless device, compared to 15 percent of all wireless users. Likewise, 19 percent of Hispanic cellular users play games on their wireless device, compared to 15 percent of all wireless users.

Some 12 percent of Hispanic cellular users access social networks from their wireless device, compared to 10 percent of all wireless users.

Additionally, the Hispanic smartphone growth rate is outpacing that of the total population. Nineteen percent of Hispanic adults currently live in a household that owns one or more smartphones, up from five percent in 2005. Twenty‐three percent of the general population currently owns these devices in their household, growing from nine percent in 2005.

read more here

Over half of businesses see benefits of mobile apps, 42% don't

Over half of business technology professionals say their companies currently deploy, or plan to deploy, mobile apps on smartphones, according to a new survey from InformationWeek Analytics. But some businesses are yet to be convinced.

Fifty-two percent of the 700 or so technology professionals surveyed for the report grasped the potential of mobile apps, and already use or plan to use them, up from 42 percent from 2009.

Intuit Makes Big Mobile Payments Play

HTC EVO 4G Credit Card Processing > PaymentMax For Credit Card Processing and Merchant Accounts

HTC EVO 4G owners can create merchant accounts with PaymentMax, allowing their EVO devices to act as credit card readers.

PaymentMax does not charge any set-up fees for MasterCard, Visa, Discover, or American Express. You need a "credit card swiper."

All our merchant accounts use PCI certified software that encrypts data before it is transmitted on your HTC EVO 4G.

The ROAMpay application expands the capabilities of a cell phone, enabling it to process credit and debit cards. The ROAMpay Swiper is optional accessory hardware that works with the app to provide extra speed, security, and savings when processing card information.

The ROAMpay Swiper is currently available for dozens of phones including 3G iPhone, 3GS iPhone, iPhone 4, Nexus One, and the HTC Hero. The ROAMpay app is compatible with hundreds of phones like iPhones, Blackberrys, and Androids. Many, like the Droid Incredible and the Droid X, can currently process cards with the app while the Swiper card reader is in "coming soon" status for these droid phones.

iPads for Credit Card Processing

Green Cab of Madison, Wisconsin uses Apple iPads for their dispatch system and to take credit card payments.

Smartphone as Credit Card Terminal

This is an example of how a smartphone can be used as a credit card terminal. If you think about event sites and even lots of farmers market or other small retail types of venues, this could be useful.

Mobile Websites or Mobile Apps?

As we continue to debate whether mobile apps or mobile web is a better approach to the mobile experience, there is evidence for both points of view.

Mobile websites arguably are better for getting "information on the go." There are no serious platform issues and no need for downloading apps.

Mobile apps, on the other hand, are about experience enhancement, not information. Perhaps the best mobile apps allow users to enhance the value of an experience, typically when interaction is required, and are not best suited for gathering in-depth information, some would argue.

Apps, of course, have to be downloaded and installed, which means there are authoring costs and issues.

Saturday, January 15, 2011

Why 4G Standards Really Don't Matter

There was a time, several years ago, when one might have gotten a reasonable argument about which flavor of fourth-generation wireless air interface (WiMAX or Long Term Evolution) was "better." One rarely hears such arguments anymore, for several reasons.

When the world's dominant GSM carriers all decided to embrace LTE, the "standards war" was effectively over. Much in the same way that Hollywood initially squabbled over HD-DVD and Blu-ray as the superior format to bring HD to the masses, the mobile industry at one point argued about the merits of WiMAX and LTE.

The decisions are of course very important to suppliers who had hoped to create a huge new business based on either of the standards. Intel, for example, had hoped to create huge new demand for WiMAX chipsets.

Beyond the technology differences, though, the key questions now are not over format, but business model. It is typical for supporters of next-generation wireless networks to tout new applications enabled by the new networks. Text messaging is a good example of a feature available on a 2G network that could not be provided on a first generation network. Email was a feature available on 2.5 networks.

Proponents of 3G networks always talked about the new applications that 3G would enable. But it took quite some time before specific 3G applications actually developed. As it turns out, PC dongle access and mobile Internet access turned out to be the new apps 3G enabled on a fairly wide basis. But lots of the other potential applications failed to develop.

The issue for 4G networks is whether new apps actually can be created, and how long it will take before that happens. In the meantime, "4G" mostly means "faster broadband" for most end users. The other important angle is that a new network always brings with it the chance to reset consumer expectations about "typical" features and pricing mechanisms.

For the moment, that is the key issue for 4G network operators. In the near term, 4G is unlikely to mean much other than "faster than 3G" as a core value proposition. But 4G pricing and packaging can be different than typically is the case for 3G, and that will be the near term revenue issue of greatest importance.

Over time, it is likely that other "killer apps" will develop. But that will take some time, in all likelihood.



Ironically, neither of these wireless technologies actually qualify as “4G” in the eyes of the International Telecommunication Union, but that hasn’t stopped the carriers’ marketing departments from capitalizing on the term anyway.

Is AT&T Hoarding Spectrum?

Some question whether AT&T is simply hoarding spectrum it has purchased, the implication being that the company simply is squatting on spectrum to deny its use to competitors. So is that the case?

The simple answer is "no." AT&T will deploy its new LTE network in 2011, on 700 MHz and Advanced Wireless Services (AWS) spectrum. Hoarding? Hardly. But the question has a lot of other nuances, and explain why spectrum costing billions does not always get put into service immediately. AT&T has perhaps more reasons than most.

The Verizon iPhone Is Too Late?

Questions sometimes are more important than answers. One question might be whether the Apple iPhone can dominate the mobile handset market the way it dominates MP3 players. Another question might be whether Apple can dominate smartphones.

But one might wonder if a better question is what markets and segments does Apple wish to dominate. apple never has shown any desire to dominate the enterprise market. It never has wanted to have market share and volume at the expense of "premium" positioning in the market, or margins.

There will be huge demand for the Verizon iPhone, most observers seem to agree.

But Android has made big leaps forward in terms of quality and quantity: it recently began outselling the iPhone in the United States, for example.

Android phones are sold by dozens of hardware makers, the biggest being Samsung, Motorola, and HTC. There are lots of different form factors. Slider phones. Phones with keyboards. Big screens, small screens, midsize screens.

The iPhone, in contrast, is a bit like the situation people once had with Henry Ford’s Model T, where you could have any color you wanted, as long as it was black. With the iPhone you can have whatever Steve Jobs says you can have, some argue.

Apple likely only wants to be a highly-profitable supplier of high-end devices with premium positioning. It likely will succeed at that. Apple wanted to change the mobile handset business. It has done that.

Android, on the other hand, likely always aimed to be a mass-deployed operating system, and likely will succeed. The big question might be whether Symbian suffers more than others in that regard. Android can be used on lower-end devices as well as high-end devices, and will.

If one assumes that smartphones will, over time, become the "phone," then Apple never would have wanted to have the largest market share.

Friday, January 14, 2011

Android Users; Giving to Charity Now Easier with PayPal Mobile

PayPal has added a donations feature to the PayPal Mobile for Android app. Now Android users have a fast and convenient way to make charitable contributions to more than 23,000 charities in the U.S, U.K and Canada, including World Food Program USA, St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital, Children’s Miracle Network and Habitat for Humanity International.

Apple wants more money for iPad newspapers

Apple reportedly has told European publishers that print subscribers will not be able to offer those customers "no incremental cost" access to the same content on Apple iPads.

Apple apparently wants to encourage print publishers to create separate digital editions, including either single-issue access or subscriptions, that allow Apple to capture 30 percent of the gross revenue, rather than allowing iPad access for no additional cost.

Groupon Turned Down $6 Billion, Thinks it is Worth t $15 Billion

Groupon, the social buying site that rejected a $6 billion offer from Google, is pushing ahead with plans for its initial public offering, a debut that could value the company at $15 billion or more. That would be a high multiple for a company with perhaps $1 billion of revenue.

Many have speculated that a new Internet bubble is forming. Of course, bubbles build and then burst with no warning, sometimes leading to a loss of 99 percent of equity value. That is not likely "this time around," as firms generally have some basis in revenue reality.

But whether you think a new Internet bubble is forming, or not, valuations and interest are much higher than at any point in the last five to 10 years. So we are likely to see a rush to go public. Inevitably, insiders will do well. It isn't so clear how well the public investors will do, given the passage of some time.

63% of Millennials Use Social Media to Engage with Brands

About 63 percent of Millennials use social media to engage with brands, a new study by McKinsey & Company has found.

Twitter is full of regional 'accents'

Researchers at Carnegie Mellon University examined 380,000 messages from Twitter during one week in March 2010 and found that the social networking site is full of its own kinds of geographical dialects.

Take the word cool. Southern Californians tend to write the shorthand 'coo,' while their neighbors up north use the phonetic shorthand 'koo.'

The 4.5 million words the researchers examined were full of similar examples. Some were obvious — like 'y'all' in the South or 'yinz' in Pittsburgh.

Thursday, January 13, 2011

Projecting iPhone's Effect on Verizon's 2011 Wireless Revenues - Seeking Alpha

By one survey conducted by Compete, about 8.7 percent of Verizon Wireless customers are waiting for a specific phone model before upgrading to a smartphone, and most assume that means the Apple iPhone.

According to Verizon’s third-quarter 2010 financial statement, only 23 percent of Verizon’s 82 million post-paid subscribers currently had a smartphone. This means that there is a potential pool of some 63 million post-paid cellphone owners that Verizon can convert to the iPhone, without stealing away a single new net add.

If the 8.7 percent of existing Verizon's customers who are waiting for a specific phone choose to upgrade to an iPhone, Verizon could enjoy a spike of more than 5.4 million new iPhone customers in 2011.

Even if just three million existing non-smartphone Verizon Wireless subscribers upgrade to the iPhone, Verizon Wireless could earn more than a billion dollars in additional data revenue over a two-year period, assuming new monthly data plan revenues of $15 a month and two-year contract lengths.

That does not even account for net customer gains Verizon might pick up as customers from AT&T and other service providers move over to Verizon Wireless to use the iPhone on the Verizon network.

U.S. Game Revenue Flat in 2010

Total U.S. consumer spend on gaming content in all forms, including new physical video and PC games, used games, game rentals, subscriptions, digital full-game downloads, social network games, downloadable content, and mobile game apps, is between $15.4 to $15.6 billion. That's a range that would make 2010 activity about the same as 2009, or just slightly less, according to NPD Group.

Spending on new physical content at retail continues to account for the majority of the total consumer spend on games content. U.S. retail sales of new physical video game content, which includes portable, console and PC game software, generated revenues of $10.1 billion, a 5 percent decline over the $10.6 billion generated in 2009.

Shoppers Have More Information Than Store Associates, Motorola Says

The majority of surveyed retail associates surveyed by Motorola (55 percent) believe that 2010 holiday season’s shoppers were better connected to consumer information than in-store associates, particularly because consumers have online shopping tools and mobile phone applications that allow price comparisons, access to coupons and social-networking.

Motorola says that retailers that aren't investing in technology to stay ahead of increasingly tech-savvy shoppers are hurting their own bottom line. Nearly three in 10 (28 percent) store visits ended with an average of $132 unspent due to abandoned purchases driven by deal-habituated behavior, out-of-stocks, limited store associate assistance and long check-out processes, Motorola estimates.

On a positive note, the survey indicates that when surveyed shoppers received guidance from a retail associate armed with a handheld mobile computer, over four in ten (43 percent) reported the device improved their shopping experience. The survey also notes that an overwhelming majority of retailers - 87 percent - believe that shoppers can easily find a better deal so customer service - aided by access to real-time information -- is 'more important than ever.

Google Kills H.264 Video Codec Support: Why?

Google says it is removing Chrome support for the H.264 codec. It is the sort of decision that will not have totally-obvious implications for most relatively non-technical people. Google says it is supporting the WebM (VP8) and Theora video codecs, and will consider adding support for other high-quality open codecs in the future, rather than H.264.

'Though H.264 plays an important role in video, as our goal is to enable open innovation, support for the codec will be removed and our resources directed towards completely open codec technologies. A relatively straight discussion of the technology issues is here: http://news.cnet.com/8301-30685_3-20028196-264.html?tag=mncol;txt.

But there's also thinking that the codec decisions are part of developing conflict between Google and Apple. See http://www.digitalsociety.org/2011/01/google-is-killing-html5-to-harm-apple-ios/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=google-is-killing-html5-to-harm-apple-ios

Apple made the decision to not allow Adobe Flash on iOS devices because they want to retain sole control over application distribution and design with their App Store, a technology decision with business implications.

The current near-universal delivery platform was Adobe Flash but that was losing steam because of its inability to reach Apple iOS.

By crippling HTML5 H.264 under the guise of supporting Google’s VP8 codec (which is a nonstarter because VP8 is inferior to H.264, carries potential patent infringement liabilities, and H.264 is entrenched in billions of hardware devices while VP8 has no current support), the only remaining viable option for most content producers is to continue delivering H.264 via the Adobe Flash platform or via Microsoft Silverlight like Netflix, says George Ou.

Larger content providers will be able to deliver H.264 compressed video on both Flash or Silverlight for most of the world and HTML5 just for Apple iOS devices, but it will remain difficult to reach Apple iOS devices. Google Android devices will be able to reach Flash websites like Windows or Mac Personal Computers which gives them a leg up on Apple, Ou argues.

LightSquared in Trouble?

Prominent hedge fund manager Phil Falcone's $7 billion Harbinger Capital Management has been hit by a series of high profile departures in the past few weeks, according to people familiar with the fund.

While some departures were voluntary, others were part of an effort to cut the fund's staff, as the firm's assets have shrunk from a peak of $26.5 billion in 2008, the sources said.

Those moves could have an impact on Harbinger's ability to secure additional funding for its satellite-plus-terrestrial Long Term Evolution wholesale network. About 40 percent of Harbinger's total capital is tied to LightSquared.

Whether the departures are related to perceptions about the chances of success, or not, LightSquared faced big challenges from the start. Mobile satellite networks have lost investors lots of money in the past.

T-Mobile USA Mocks At&T, Verizon

There's "no competition" in the mobile business, some say. Sure, it's anecdotal, but advertising like this suggests there is quite a lot of competition.

Will Verizon iPhone Sales Change iPhone Demographics?

Irrespective of the ultimate changes in the smartphone and broader U.S. mobile business that might ultimately result from the new Verizon Wireless deal with Apple giving it the right to sell the iPhone, the iPhone user base looks like it will continue to be a choice target for brands looking to advertise.

Though change is likely as the iPhone user base moves from early adopter to mainstream users, the early demographics have been attractive for brands. Up to this point. iPhone users heavily over-index in some of the most attractive advertising segments, including 25 to 34 year olds (index of 175), 18 to 24 year olds (index of 141) and 35 to 44 year olds (index of 129) and are 22 percent more likely than an average mobile subscriber to be male.

Up to this point, iPhone users often also have represented higher income brackets, with 81 percent of users having a household income of at least $50,000 and 47 percent of users reporting a household income of at least $100,000. That demographic pattern, of course, will become less prominent as the iPhone continues to diffuse throughout the general population.

The Next Big Media Battle: Publishers Against Ad Agencies

The media business has been in chaos for a decade, and there's more coming. The next big media revolution will be an escalating and increasingly bitter competition between the content creators -- especially newspaper and magazine publishers -- and their former friends, the traditional ad agencies, which still create and buy most print ads for their clients.

The traditional ad agencies are going to lose because creating great, engaging content is emerging as the key skill in marketing. And they don't have it, some would argue.

Mobile venture capital investments grow to reach pre-crisis levels

Mobile venture capital investment took a sharp turn upwards last year reaching $6.1 billion, almost as much as the 2006 high of $6.4 billion. The mobile industry now accounts for 34 per cent of all the venture capital in tech as CapitalIQ research showed.

The growth is mostly due to a growing average value of deals. It was estimated that there were 416 deals made last year, while in 2009 and 2008 the number of deals stood at 269 and 284, respectively. The biggest deals – of course – came from the carriers and last year they made for a third of all the financings with a total value of $2.3 billion.

Do Tablets Affect When We Read?

Tablets might change how some people read, what they read, how much they read or what else they give up to read. Tablets might also change when people read. After analyzing about one million articles saved for later reading by Read It Later, the company suggests that tablets already are shifting the consumption of content, at least on the part of tablet owners.

The data suggests that iPad owners, for example, shift much of their reading away from PCs during work hours and towards "personal prime time" in the evenings.

Looking at the number of articles read each hour by Read It Later users on their computers, a significant amount of content was shifted towards the end of a user’s day (6PM – 9PM).

When a reader is given a choice about how to consume their content, a major shift in behavior occurs. They no longer consume the majority of their content during the day, on their computer. Instead they shift that content to prime time and onto a device better suited for consumption.

That reinforces the notion that iPads and tablets might wind up being used extensively "on the couch" and in the home, rather than as a replacement for a PC on business trips. One also wonders what happens to TV viewing, as reading is relatively more-immersive activity than much music listening, which happens when users are doing something else.

New Motorola Zoom Tablet

Motorola Zoom tablet, powered by Android.

Will Verizon iPhone Hurt Android Sales?

Will the launch of the Verizon iPhone 4 slow Android's growth? Some will say yes, others no.

Charlie Wolf of Needham and Co., and Shaw Wu of Kaufman Bros. both believe Apple's deal with Verizon will hit Android sales. The notion is that Android phones will suffer because Verizon users bought Androids in the past primarily or largely because the iPhone wasn't available on Verizon. Once it is, they will switch when they can.

The alternate view rests much more on the range of price points Android devices will be available in, at least on a global level. So the answer might well be "both of the above." It is conceivable Verizon will see at least a momentary dip in Android sales as iPhone sales begin. But on a global basis, the Apple deal with Verizon does not affect the overall dynamics of competition between Android and iPhone.

Wednesday, January 12, 2011

300% Increase in Mobile YouTube Viewing in 2010

YouTube now exceeds 200 million views a day on mobile, a 300-percent increase in 2010.

Mobile Payments $1.13 Trillion in 2014

Global Mobile Payments transactions to rise to $1.13 trillion in 2014, a CAGR of 94.8%
Mobile payments continued its stellar growth in 2009 with the total number of users increasing to 351.4 million

Globally, we are expecting the number of mobile payment users to rise to 1.06 billion in 2014 for a CAGR of 20.5 percent.

On the transaction value side, the gross value of mobile payments transactions was $37.4 billion in 2009. We expect mainstream take-up of mobile payments to happen in the 2011 - 2013 time frame. Our forecast is that in 2014, the gross value of mobile payment transactions will reach $1.13 trillion.

SMS accounted for 76.4 percent of mobile payment transactions in 2009. This is expected to decline to 58.7% in 2014.

Ease of use, ubiquity, and minimal network investments means that SMS will continue to be the transaction technology of choice for mobile operators and users, the report suggests.

Jon Stewart on Verizon Getting iPhone

http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/tue-january-11-2011/verizon-iphone-announcement

Verizon iPad to follow Verizon iPhone | VentureBeat

Verizon Wireless will offer a version of the iPad which connects directly to its mobile broadband network, presumably the 3G network.

The current Verizon iPad (sold at Verizon since last October) requires a MiFi Mobile Hotspot, an additional device used to connect the device to Verizon’s network. The new iPad will be able to use Verizon's mobile broadband network, not just Wi-Fi connections.

In many ways, that might be a bigger deal, long term, than getting the iPhone.

Personal Hotspot feature coming to all iPhones in iOS 4.3

The personal hotspot feature that debuted on the Verizon iPhone yesterday will, in fact, be making its way to all iPhones in iOS 4.3, Boy Genius Report says.

763 Million Global Broadband Subscribers

The growing popularity of bandwidth-intensive applications, such as watching online video, using IP-based telephony services, and downloading music files, is directly spurring demand for higher-speed Internet connections, pushing the number of global subscribers to 763 million in 2010, says In-Stat.

From 2007 through 2009, there was a continued growth rate of 25 percent in broadband subscribers worldwide,' says Vahid Dejwakh, Industry Analyst.

Though this is expected to slowly decrease to 10 percent by 2014 as the broadband market matures, there are still some substantial gains to be made. The Asia/Pacific region will continue to see very high growth rates, along with Latin America and the Middle East/Africa regions.

Google,Dominates Mobile Search

Google’s mobile search market share dominance is almost complete, according to Royal Pindgom. Google has made an incredible land grab in the mobile sector.

Compare this to the other search engines. None of them have managed to claim even one percent of the mobile search market.

Google’s piece of the mobile search pie is even larger than their already impressive share of the overall search engine market. For Yahoo and Bing, the situation is the opposite. Their mobile efforts are nothing compared to their search engine market share.

If Google firmly believes that mobile is the future (which is the opinion of CEO Eric Schmidt), they are making all the right moves. This is about as close to "world domination" (to use the tech bubble term) as a company can get.

Tuesday, January 11, 2011

Why Verizon’s iPhone spells the end of the golden age for carriers | VentureBeat

Some argue the Verizon iPhone points the way to the carriers’future: They’ll be no more than dumb pipes for smartphones. Agree or disagree, favor or not, there are lots of important implications. A "dumb pipes" business would have to be smaller. Precisely how much smaller is hard to say.

The implications for quality, ability to invest, customer service and other important issues are hard to fathom. But some observers think consumers and businesses would be better served by "dumb pipe" providers. Much would depend on the unstated qualifiers. Does "dumb pipe" presuppose "low margin," "low gross revenue" or "commodity services"?

Or, if you like, consider a different future, where "dumb pipes" also come with the adjectives "high gross revenue, high margin, high profit." Would "dumb pipe" still be so attractive? Or is the real issue something other than whether the pipe is "intelligent" or "transparent?"

How Will AT&T Respond to Verizon iPhone?

Verizon to Sell 3G Apple IPad

Verizon Wireless will sell a version of Apple Inc.’s iPad tablet computer that can connect directly to its 3G network, according to Francis Shammo, Verizon Communications CFO, but the availability of that device is not yet announced.

On the Use and Misuse of Principles, Theorems and Concepts

When financial commentators compile lists of "potential black swans," they misunderstand the concept. As explained by Taleb Nasim ...