Projecting iPhone's Effect on Verizon's 2011 Wireless Revenues - Seeking Alpha

By one survey conducted by Compete, about 8.7 percent of Verizon Wireless customers are waiting for a specific phone model before upgrading to a smartphone, and most assume that means the Apple iPhone.

According to Verizon’s third-quarter 2010 financial statement, only 23 percent of Verizon’s 82 million post-paid subscribers currently had a smartphone. This means that there is a potential pool of some 63 million post-paid cellphone owners that Verizon can convert to the iPhone, without stealing away a single new net add.

If the 8.7 percent of existing Verizon's customers who are waiting for a specific phone choose to upgrade to an iPhone, Verizon could enjoy a spike of more than 5.4 million new iPhone customers in 2011.

Even if just three million existing non-smartphone Verizon Wireless subscribers upgrade to the iPhone, Verizon Wireless could earn more than a billion dollars in additional data revenue over a two-year period, assuming new monthly data plan revenues of $15 a month and two-year contract lengths.

That does not even account for net customer gains Verizon might pick up as customers from AT&T and other service providers move over to Verizon Wireless to use the iPhone on the Verizon network.

Projecting iPhone's Effect on Verizon's 2011 Wireless Revenues - Seeking Alpha