Thursday, April 7, 2011

Can Netflix Pull Off the Next Great Transformation?

Netflix has been viewed as "toast" so many times it might be easy to argue that Netflix now will run into trouble as it starts to spend serious money on original or at least high-quality new content deals.

The argument is that Netflix simply cannot afford to do so. Deals such as the recent agreement allowing Netflix to stream "Mad Men" are the sort of thing that will add "billions of dollars" to the company cost structure.

"Simply put, Netflix is in over its head," some will argue. If it does not collect impressive content with frequency, its brand -- its image -- takes a serious hit. But, as it attempts to keep up the pace required to retain its top spot in the hearts and minds of streamers, it spends itself into a future it cannot afford.

Perhaps Netflix has run into a wall it cannot climb. But that has been said, repeatedly, about Netflix in the past. To be sure, content owners recently have concluded that Netflix has grown "too powerful," so it won't be easy for Netflix to keep getting access to content at lower rates.

Some would argue that if Netflix owned the infrastructure or technology that makes streaming possible it would have something. "But, it doesn't." Of course, some service providers that do own lots of technology and infrastructure, such as Dish Network and Echostar, disagree. Dish Network CEO Charlie Ergen recently has mused that, if he were starting today, he might choose the Netflix model for distribution, instead of building, launching and owning fleets of satellites.

Netflix faces challenges, of course. But so do all video distributors. Netflix has faced concern in the past, and successfully defied all the naysayers. That is no guarantee it can continue to do so. But the company has beaten the odds for quite some time. And some might argue that Netflix or YouTube could emerge as the next generation of video distributors, ultimately.

No comments:

DIY and Licensed GenAI Patterns Will Continue

As always with software, firms are going to opt for a mix of "do it yourself" owned technology and licensed third party offerings....