What Role for Key Devices in "Post-PC" Era?

So far, the “post-PC” era heralded by Steve Jobs, the now-deceased CEO of Apple, has been characterized by growing sales both of traditional PCs and tablets, though there had been indications tablet sales were cannibalizing PC purchases. That might still be true in some markets, though globally, sales of both devices, overall, are growing.

Global tablet sales to end users are forecast to total 118.9 million units in 2012, a 98 percent increase from 2011 sales of 60 million units, according to researchers at Gartner. At the same time, it appears that traditional PC sales also have grown. .

PC shipments worldwide, expected to grow 4.4 percent in 2012, will grow 10 percent in 2013, according to Gartner. That is a bit of a surprise, with all the attention now focused on tablet sales.

It would not be inappropriate to argue that the future growth trajectories for both types of devices, and smart phones, will be dictated by the primary use cases for the three broad categories of devices.

Juniper Research has projected that annual revenues from consumer mobile applications will approach $52 billion by 2016 as consumer smart phone adoption accelerates in tandem with the emergence of a mass tablet market. The forecast might raise some pertinent questions.

Much will hinge on how that new revenue is created, for all three categories of devices. At least two of the categories might be driven, in large part, by content purchases and broader mobile commerce apps..

Kip Cassino, Borrell and Associates EVP, argues that by 2016, most computers available to consumers are going to look and act just like today’s iPhones and iPads. That means they will be able to communicate like cell phones, they will all have built-in GPS, and they will feature cameras and touch-screen interfaces.

Most importantly, Cassino argues, they will depend on apps instead of expensive, bundled software  In fact, what we now call computers will have largely faded from the scene, except for some business and gaming applications. Personal computers will be replaced by mobile devices of one sort or another, Cassino argues.

You don't have to agree with the time frame to agree with the direction of the user experience Cassino describes.

“Touch” arguably is the preferred interface for transactions and content navigation. Mouse and keyboard still make more sense for “work” and content creation (writing, editing a movie, working with a spreadsheet, for example).

Ultimately, one might argue, touch will become the preferred interface for most consumer appliances, none of which are used for “content creation” applications more complicated than taking a picture, sending an email or text message, or content sharing.