Tuesday, May 1, 2012

Apple Churn Impact: 6 to 8 Times the Normal Rate Around 4S Launch

A study by Consumer Intelligence Research Partners over the three-month period between December 2011 and February 2012 suggests that the Apple iPhone does play a role in churn.

About 18 percent of iPhone buyers over that period report they had an iPhone already, and switched carriers. The obvious flip side of that story is that 82 percent of iPhone buyers stuck with the same carrier and only switched devices.

Some 24 percent of new buyers said they switched from another type of device to an iPhone, and also switched carriers. That means 76 percent switched devices, but stayed with their original service providers.

Those statistics cover a three-month period during the launch of the 4S, so likely will not be so pronounced for latter periods.

That suggests the iPhone was a significant driver of churn away from carriers that do not sell the iPhone, if you assume that the 24 percent of new iPhone buyers switched carriers just to get the iPhone.

But 18 percent of new iPhone buyers already had an iPhone, but still switched carriers. Some would suggest that represents AT&T customers switching to Verizon Wireless.

Either set of statistics--18 percent or 24 percent churn--are significant. If you assume monthly churn of about one percent a month, then either rate represents monthly churn of perhaps six percent to eight percent. That is six to eight times higher than either firm typically experiences.

Also, Wal-Mart has emerged as an important sales channel for Apple iPads, a survey by Consumer Intelligence Research Partners has found. In the month of February 2012, Wal-Mart represented about 11 percent of sales. Best Buy sold 24 percent, Apple sold 26 percent.

Walmart iPad Sales Chart As you might guess, retail stores operated by mobile service providers were a bigger channel for iPhones. Over a three-month period, from December 2011 to the end of February 2012,retail stores accounted for 76 percent of iPhone sales; online stores, 24 percent. When the iPhone 4S first launched, retail stores and online outlets accounted for 67 percent and 33 percent of sales, respectively, largely due to online orders.


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