Telco Video Share will Nearly Double by 2017

The number of U.S. telco video subscribers will rise from 8.8 million in 2011 to 18.6 million in 2017, according to Parks Associates now forecasts. That gain by telcos will come from share presently held by cable TV customers and satellite providers.

Satellite's share of the subscription video  market will drop to 30 percent by 2017, while cable's share will fall to 52 percent, while telco IPTV share will rise to 18 percent.

Cable video subscribers will decline from 60.7 million in 2011 to 56.1 million in 2017.

But forecasts of market share vary, and at least part of the reason is differing views about the impact of cord cutting.

A new ABI Research study suggests that nearly 20 percent of online video consumers consider online video as a replacement for entertainment video subscriptions. That obviously represents “significant risk” to the traditional video entertainment business.

ABI Research suggests the magnitude of potential revenue loss could range as high as $16.8 billion in the U.S. market, for example. Telcos won’t face those issues, as they are predicted by virtually every study to continue taking market share, as cable TV operators and satellite providers continue to lose market share over time.

But at least one analysis has satellite providers overtaking cable TV providers in revenue in 2017.

So the near term trends might not be “linear,” as some forecasters still project cable TV operator and satellite provider  video revenues growing for a period. Digital TV Research forecasts.

But a change that shaves as much as $17 billion from U.S. providers would seem to be a longer-term danger, as ABI Research also suggests U.S. video entertainment penetration is dropping at a rate of about 0.5 percent per year through 2017.